Intrinsic value of Barrett Business Services - BBSI

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$57.66

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$57.66

 
Intrinsic value

$267.34

 
Up/down potential

+364%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.50
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.36
  11.63
  10.96
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  5.99
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  841
  968
  1,104
  1,250
  1,404
  1,568
  1,740
  1,920
  2,109
  2,306
  2,511
  2,725
  2,948
  3,180
  3,420
  3,670
  3,930
  4,200
  4,481
  4,773
  5,077
  5,393
  5,722
  6,065
  6,423
  6,795
  7,184
  7,591
  8,015
  8,458
  8,921
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  919
  1,048
  1,185
  1,331
  1,485
  1,648
  1,818
  1,996
  2,182
  2,376
  2,574
  2,784
  3,002
  3,230
  3,466
  3,711
  3,966
  4,231
  4,507
  4,794
  5,092
  5,403
  5,727
  6,065
  6,417
  6,784
  7,168
  7,568
  7,987
  8,424
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  815
  919
  1,048
  1,185
  1,331
  1,485
  1,648
  1,818
  1,996
  2,182
  2,376
  2,574
  2,784
  3,002
  3,230
  3,466
  3,711
  3,966
  4,231
  4,507
  4,794
  5,092
  5,403
  5,727
  6,065
  6,417
  6,784
  7,168
  7,568
  7,987
  8,424
Operating income, $m
  25
  49
  57
  65
  73
  83
  92
  102
  113
  124
  135
  152
  164
  177
  191
  204
  219
  234
  250
  266
  283
  300
  319
  338
  358
  379
  400
  423
  446
  471
  497
EBITDA, $m
  28
  55
  63
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  272
  289
  307
  326
  345
  366
  387
  409
  432
  456
  482
  508
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  4
  7
  10
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  49
  55
  61
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  119
  127
  136
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  295
  311
  327
  344
Tax expense, $m
  7
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Net income, $m
  19
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  598
  624
  712
  805
  905
  1,010
  1,121
  1,237
  1,359
  1,486
  1,618
  1,756
  1,900
  2,049
  2,204
  2,365
  2,532
  2,706
  2,887
  3,075
  3,271
  3,475
  3,687
  3,908
  4,138
  4,379
  4,629
  4,891
  5,164
  5,450
  5,748
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  542
  624
  712
  805
  905
  1,010
  1,121
  1,237
  1,359
  1,486
  1,618
  1,756
  1,900
  2,049
  2,204
  2,365
  2,532
  2,706
  2,887
  3,075
  3,271
  3,475
  3,687
  3,908
  4,138
  4,379
  4,629
  4,891
  5,164
  5,450
  5,748
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.552
  1.551
  1.551
  1.553
  1.551
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
  1.552
Average production assets, $m
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  240
  254
  268
Working capital, $m
  -14
  -80
  -92
  -104
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -175
  -191
  -208
  -226
  -245
  -264
  -284
  -305
  -326
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -421
  -448
  -475
  -503
  -533
  -564
  -596
  -630
  -665
  -702
  -740
Total debt, $m
  5
  38
  117
  202
  291
  386
  486
  590
  700
  814
  933
  1,057
  1,187
  1,321
  1,460
  1,605
  1,756
  1,913
  2,075
  2,245
  2,421
  2,604
  2,795
  2,994
  3,201
  3,418
  3,643
  3,879
  4,125
  4,382
  4,650
Total liabilities, $m
  528
  561
  640
  725
  814
  909
  1,009
  1,113
  1,223
  1,337
  1,456
  1,580
  1,710
  1,844
  1,983
  2,128
  2,279
  2,436
  2,598
  2,768
  2,944
  3,127
  3,318
  3,517
  3,724
  3,941
  4,166
  4,402
  4,648
  4,905
  5,173
Total equity, $m
  70
  62
  71
  81
  90
  101
  112
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  190
  205
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  369
  391
  414
  438
  463
  489
  516
  545
  575
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  598
  623
  711
  806
  904
  1,010
  1,121
  1,237
  1,359
  1,486
  1,618
  1,756
  1,900
  2,049
  2,203
  2,364
  2,532
  2,707
  2,887
  3,076
  3,271
  3,474
  3,687
  3,908
  4,138
  4,379
  4,629
  4,891
  5,164
  5,450
  5,748
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.071
  0.610
  1.650
  2.510
  3.220
  3.820
  4.330
  4.770
  5.150
  5.480
  5.770
  6.020
  6.250
  6.450
  6.630
  6.790
  6.930
  7.070
  7.190
  7.300
  7.400
  7.490
  7.580
  7.660
  7.740
  7.810
  7.870
  7.930
  7.990
  8.040
  8.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.026
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  137
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  90
  97
  103
  110
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
Change in working capital, $m
  57
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  181
  190
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  300
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  33
  79
  84
  90
  95
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -16
  33
  79
  84
  90
  95
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  83
  132
  141
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  202
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  270
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -48
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  90
  123
  132
  141
  151
  160
  170
  180
  189
  200
  209
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
  447
  468
  491
  515
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  86
  113
  115
  116
  117
  116
  115
  112
  109
  105
  99
  94
  88
  81
  75
  68
  61
  54
  47
  41
  35
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  10
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Barrett Business Services, Inc. provides business management solutions for small and medium-sized companies in the United States. The company has management platform that integrates a knowledge-based approach from the management consulting industry with tools from the human resource outsourcing industry. It offers professional employer services, under which it enters into a client services agreement to become a co-employer of the clientÂ’s existing workforce, assuming responsibility for payroll, payroll taxes, workersÂ’ compensation coverage, and certain other administration functions. The company also provides staffing and recruiting services, such as on-demand or short-term staffing assignments, contract staffing, long-term or indefinite-term on-site management, and direct placement. It serves electronics manufacturers, various light-manufacturing industries, agriculture-based companies, transportation and shipping enterprises, food processing, telecommunications, public utilities, general contractors in various construction-related fields, and professional services firms. Barrett Business Services, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Barrett Business Services (BBSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 133.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 7.1%
Total Debt to Equity 7.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital 25.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Equity 30.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Payout Ratio 31.6%

BBSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $841 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Barrett Business Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Barrett Business Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BBSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Barrett Business Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Barrett Business Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Barrett Business Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Barrett Business Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBSI are equal to 3%.

Life of production assets of 24.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Barrett Business Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBSI is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70 million for Barrett Business Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.414 million for Barrett Business Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Barrett Business Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Barrett posts 4Q profit   [04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ BBSI Promotes Heather Gould to Chief Strategy Officer   [Jan-10-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ BBSI Appoints Vince Price to its Board of Directors   [Dec-20-16 05:04PM  Marketwired]
▶ Is Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ BBSI Reaches Agreement to Settle Shareholder Lawsuit   [Oct-27-16 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ BBSI Appoints Deloitte as New Auditor   [04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ BBSI Receives Extension From the NASDAQ Hearings Panel   [Jun-01-16 04:45PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of BBSI Financial statements of BBSI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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