Intrinsic value of Barrett Business Services - BBSI

Previous Close

$52.86

  Intrinsic Value

$168.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+219%

  Value-price divergence*

+396%

Previous close

$52.86

 
Intrinsic value

$168.57

 
Up/down potential

+219%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+396%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BBSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.50
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  841
  924
  1,011
  1,102
  1,196
  1,295
  1,397
  1,503
  1,613
  1,728
  1,847
  1,971
  2,100
  2,234
  2,374
  2,519
  2,670
  2,828
  2,993
  3,164
  3,344
  3,531
  3,726
  3,930
  4,144
  4,367
  4,601
  4,846
  5,102
  5,370
  5,651
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  878
  960
  1,045
  1,135
  1,227
  1,324
  1,424
  1,528
  1,637
  1,749
  1,861
  1,983
  2,110
  2,242
  2,379
  2,522
  2,671
  2,826
  2,988
  3,157
  3,334
  3,519
  3,711
  3,913
  4,124
  4,345
  4,576
  4,818
  5,071
  5,336
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  815
  878
  960
  1,045
  1,135
  1,227
  1,324
  1,424
  1,528
  1,637
  1,749
  1,861
  1,983
  2,110
  2,242
  2,379
  2,522
  2,671
  2,826
  2,988
  3,157
  3,334
  3,519
  3,711
  3,913
  4,124
  4,345
  4,576
  4,818
  5,071
  5,336
Operating income, $m
  25
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
EBITDA, $m
  28
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Tax expense, $m
  7
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
Net income, $m
  19
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  582
  578
  632
  689
  748
  810
  874
  940
  1,009
  1,081
  1,155
  1,233
  1,313
  1,397
  1,485
  1,575
  1,670
  1,769
  1,872
  1,979
  2,091
  2,208
  2,330
  2,458
  2,592
  2,731
  2,878
  3,031
  3,191
  3,358
  3,534
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  526
  578
  632
  689
  748
  810
  874
  940
  1,009
  1,081
  1,155
  1,233
  1,313
  1,397
  1,485
  1,575
  1,670
  1,769
  1,872
  1,979
  2,091
  2,208
  2,330
  2,458
  2,592
  2,731
  2,878
  3,031
  3,191
  3,358
  3,534
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.599
  1.599
  1.600
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.598
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
  1.599
Average production assets, $m
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Working capital, $m
  -40
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -129
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -173
  -185
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -334
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -414
  -437
  -460
  -485
  -510
  -537
  -565
Total debt, $m
  5
  13
  62
  113
  166
  222
  279
  339
  401
  466
  533
  603
  675
  751
  829
  911
  996
  1,085
  1,177
  1,274
  1,375
  1,480
  1,590
  1,705
  1,825
  1,951
  2,083
  2,220
  2,365
  2,516
  2,674
Total liabilities, $m
  512
  520
  569
  620
  673
  729
  786
  846
  908
  973
  1,040
  1,110
  1,182
  1,258
  1,336
  1,418
  1,503
  1,592
  1,684
  1,781
  1,882
  1,987
  2,097
  2,212
  2,332
  2,458
  2,590
  2,727
  2,872
  3,023
  3,181
Total equity, $m
  70
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  353
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  582
  578
  632
  689
  748
  810
  873
  940
  1,009
  1,081
  1,156
  1,233
  1,313
  1,398
  1,484
  1,576
  1,670
  1,769
  1,871
  1,979
  2,091
  2,208
  2,330
  2,458
  2,591
  2,731
  2,878
  3,030
  3,191
  3,359
  3,534
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.071
  0.230
  0.980
  1.640
  2.220
  2.740
  3.200
  3.610
  3.980
  4.310
  4.610
  4.890
  5.140
  5.370
  5.580
  5.780
  5.960
  6.130
  6.290
  6.440
  6.580
  6.700
  6.820
  6.940
  7.040
  7.140
  7.240
  7.330
  7.410
  7.490
  7.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.027
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  137
  39
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
Change in working capital, $m
  57
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -33
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  46
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  8
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -16
  18
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  64
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -44
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  93
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  182
  191
  199
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  85
  85
  84
  83
  82
  79
  77
  74
  71
  66
  62
  58
  53
  49
  44
  40
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5
  88.5

Barrett Business Services, Inc. provides business management solutions for small and medium-sized companies in the United States. The company has management platform that integrates a knowledge-based approach from the management consulting industry with tools from the human resource outsourcing industry. It offers professional employer services, under which it enters into a client services agreement to become a co-employer of the clientÂ’s existing workforce, assuming responsibility for payroll, payroll taxes, workersÂ’ compensation coverage, and certain other administration functions. The company also provides staffing and recruiting services, such as on-demand or short-term staffing assignments, contract staffing, long-term or indefinite-term on-site management, and direct placement. It serves electronics manufacturers, various light-manufacturing industries, agriculture-based companies, transportation and shipping enterprises, food processing, telecommunications, public utilities, general contractors in various construction-related fields, and professional services firms. Barrett Business Services, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Barrett Business Services (BBSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 133.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 7.1%
Total Debt to Equity 7.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 25.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Equity 30.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Payout Ratio 31.6%

BBSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BBSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $841 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Barrett Business Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Barrett Business Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BBSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BBSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Barrett Business Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Barrett Business Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BBSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BBSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Barrett Business Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Barrett Business Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BBSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BBSI are equal to 1.4%.

Life of production assets of 19.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Barrett Business Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BBSI is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70 million for Barrett Business Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.184 million for Barrett Business Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Barrett Business Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Barrett posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 10:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ BBSI Maintains $0.25 Per Share Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-08-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Barrett reports 1Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ BBSI Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-04-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Barrett posts 4Q profit   [04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ BBSI Promotes Heather Gould to Chief Strategy Officer   [Jan-10-17 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ BBSI Appoints Vince Price to its Board of Directors   [Dec-20-16 05:04PM  Marketwired]
▶ Is Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ BBSI Reaches Agreement to Settle Shareholder Lawsuit   [Oct-27-16 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ BBSI Appoints Deloitte as New Auditor   [04:15PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of BBSI Financial statements of BBSI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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