Intrinsic value of Brandywine Realty Trust - BDN

Previous Close

$16.80

  Intrinsic Value

$2.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

  Value-price divergence*

-23%

Previous close

$16.80

 
Intrinsic value

$2.70

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-23%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BDN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BDN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.94
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  525
  536
  548
  562
  578
  595
  614
  635
  658
  682
  709
  737
  767
  798
  832
  868
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,132
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,642
  1,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  247
  253
  259
  266
  274
  283
  293
  303
  315
  327
  340
  353
  368
  384
  400
  418
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  546
  572
  599
  627
  657
  689
  722
  757
  794
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  305
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  381
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  442
  453
  465
  476
  488
  501
  513
  526
  539
  552
  566
  580
  595
  610
  625
Total operating expenses, $m
  533
  552
  566
  580
  595
  611
  629
  647
  666
  687
  708
  731
  754
  779
  805
  832
  860
  889
  921
  953
  987
  1,023
  1,059
  1,098
  1,138
  1,179
  1,223
  1,269
  1,317
  1,367
  1,419
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -8
  -4
  0
  6
  12
  20
  27
  36
  46
  57
  68
  81
  95
  109
  125
  143
  161
  181
  202
  225
  249
  275
  303
EBITDA, $m
  183
  178
  181
  186
  192
  200
  209
  219
  230
  243
  258
  273
  291
  309
  329
  351
  375
  400
  427
  456
  487
  520
  555
  593
  632
  675
  720
  767
  818
  871
  928
Interest expense (income), $m
  98
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  218
  228
  240
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  -107
  -111
  -113
  -116
  -117
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -121
  -121
  -120
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -114
  -111
  -107
  -104
  -99
  -94
  -88
  -82
  -75
  -67
  -59
  -49
  -39
  -28
  -16
  -2
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  40
  -107
  -111
  -113
  -116
  -117
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -121
  -121
  -120
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -114
  -111
  -107
  -104
  -99
  -94
  -88
  -82
  -75
  -67
  -59
  -49
  -39
  -28
  -16
  -2

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,099
  3,996
  4,088
  4,193
  4,311
  4,442
  4,585
  4,741
  4,911
  5,093
  5,288
  5,497
  5,720
  5,958
  6,210
  6,478
  6,762
  7,063
  7,380
  7,716
  8,071
  8,445
  8,839
  9,255
  9,693
  10,155
  10,641
  11,152
  11,690
  12,256
  12,852
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,905
  3,996
  4,088
  4,193
  4,311
  4,442
  4,585
  4,741
  4,911
  5,093
  5,288
  5,497
  5,720
  5,958
  6,210
  6,478
  6,762
  7,063
  7,380
  7,716
  8,071
  8,445
  8,839
  9,255
  9,693
  10,155
  10,641
  11,152
  11,690
  12,256
  12,852
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
  0.134
Average production assets, $m
  3,296
  3,362
  3,439
  3,528
  3,627
  3,737
  3,857
  3,989
  4,131
  4,284
  4,449
  4,624
  4,812
  5,012
  5,224
  5,450
  5,689
  5,941
  6,209
  6,491
  6,789
  7,104
  7,436
  7,786
  8,155
  8,543
  8,951
  9,382
  9,834
  10,311
  10,812
Working capital, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
Total debt, $m
  2,013
  2,066
  2,118
  2,179
  2,246
  2,321
  2,403
  2,492
  2,589
  2,693
  2,805
  2,924
  3,052
  3,188
  3,332
  3,486
  3,648
  3,820
  4,002
  4,194
  4,396
  4,610
  4,836
  5,074
  5,325
  5,589
  5,866
  6,159
  6,467
  6,791
  7,131
Total liabilities, $m
  2,233
  2,286
  2,338
  2,399
  2,466
  2,541
  2,623
  2,712
  2,809
  2,913
  3,025
  3,144
  3,272
  3,408
  3,552
  3,706
  3,868
  4,040
  4,222
  4,414
  4,616
  4,830
  5,056
  5,294
  5,545
  5,809
  6,086
  6,379
  6,687
  7,011
  7,351
Total equity, $m
  1,866
  1,710
  1,750
  1,795
  1,845
  1,901
  1,963
  2,029
  2,102
  2,180
  2,263
  2,353
  2,448
  2,550
  2,658
  2,773
  2,894
  3,023
  3,159
  3,303
  3,454
  3,614
  3,783
  3,961
  4,149
  4,346
  4,554
  4,773
  5,003
  5,246
  5,501
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,099
  3,996
  4,088
  4,194
  4,311
  4,442
  4,586
  4,741
  4,911
  5,093
  5,288
  5,497
  5,720
  5,958
  6,210
  6,479
  6,762
  7,063
  7,381
  7,717
  8,070
  8,444
  8,839
  9,255
  9,694
  10,155
  10,640
  11,152
  11,690
  12,257
  12,852
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.079
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  -107
  -111
  -113
  -116
  -117
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -121
  -121
  -120
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -114
  -111
  -107
  -104
  -99
  -94
  -88
  -82
  -75
  -67
  -59
  -49
  -39
  -28
  -16
  -2
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  190
  194
  199
  204
  210
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  517
  542
  568
  596
  625
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  87
  88
  91
  94
  99
  104
  111
  118
  127
  136
  147
  159
  172
  186
  201
  218
  236
  255
  276
  298
  322
  348
  375
  404
  435
  468
  503
  541
  580
  623
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  172
  88
  89
  92
  96
  100
  106
  113
  120
  129
  139
  150
  162
  175
  189
  205
  222
  240
  260
  281
  303
  327
  353
  381
  410
  441
  475
  510
  548
  588
  631
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -191
  -194
  -199
  -204
  -210
  -216
  -223
  -231
  -239
  -248
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -392
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -494
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
New CAPEX, $m
  -275
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -453
  -476
  -501
Cash from investing activities, $m
  501
  -257
  -271
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -354
  -373
  -392
  -412
  -433
  -455
  -478
  -502
  -527
  -554
  -582
  -610
  -641
  -673
  -707
  -743
  -780
  -819
  -859
  -903
  -947
  -995
  -1,044
  -1,097
Free cash flow, $m
  673
  -168
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -322
  -332
  -342
  -351
  -361
  -370
  -380
  -389
  -399
  -409
  -418
  -428
  -437
  -447
  -457
  -466
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -420
  53
  53
  60
  67
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  146
  150
  158
  166
  173
  180
  187
  193
  199
  204
  210
  215
  219
  224
  228
  232
  236
  240
  243
  246
  249
  251
  253
  255
  256
  257
  258
  258
  258
  257
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -420
  199
  203
  218
  233
  248
  262
  276
  290
  303
  316
  330
  343
  355
  368
  381
  394
  408
  422
  435
  449
  463
  477
  491
  506
  520
  535
  551
  566
  582
  598
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  253
  30
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  68
  -146
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -193
  -199
  -204
  -210
  -215
  -219
  -224
  -228
  -232
  -236
  -240
  -243
  -246
  -249
  -251
  -253
  -255
  -256
  -257
  -258
  -258
  -258
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  78
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -152
  -156
  -159
  -161
  -164
  -165
  -167
  -168
  -169
  -170
  -170
  -169
  -169
  -168
  -166
  -164
  -161
  -158
  -154
  -150
  -145
  -139
  -133
  -126
Discount rate, %
 
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.96
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.42
  27.74
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
  33.71
  35.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  72
  -109
  -103
  -96
  -88
  -80
  -71
  -62
  -54
  -46
  -39
  -32
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.7
  89.6
  84.7
  80.0
  75.4
  71.1
  67.0
  63.1
  59.5
  56.1
  53.0
  50.0
  47.3
  44.8
  42.4
  40.3
  38.3
  36.4
  34.7
  33.1
  31.6
  30.3
  29.0
  27.9
  26.8
  25.8
  24.9
  24.1
  23.3
  22.6

Brandywine Realty Trust is a publically owned real estate investment trust. The firm invests in real estate markets of the United States. It makes investments in office, mixed-use, and industrial properties. Brandywine Realty Trust was founded in 1985 and is based in Radnor, Pennsylvania with additional offices in Mount Laurel, New Jersey; Richmond, Virginia; Dallas, Texas; Falls Church, Virginia; Oakland, California; Austin, Texas, and Carlsbad, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 73.6
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -28.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -49%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 107.9%
Total Debt to Equity 107.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity 2.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.4%
EBITDA Margin 62.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.4%
Operating Margin -1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 290%

BDN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BDN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $525 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brandywine Realty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Brandywine Realty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BDN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.6%, whose default value for BDN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brandywine Realty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brandywine Realty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BDN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $298 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BDN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Brandywine Realty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brandywine Realty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BDN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BDN are equal to 627.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brandywine Realty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BDN is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1866 million for Brandywine Realty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 172.825 million for Brandywine Realty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brandywine Realty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Brandywine Realty Trust reports 2Q results   [Jul-20-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Prologis on the Street: How Analysts See PLD Stock   [Jun-22-17 09:06AM  Market Realist]
▶ Office REIT Mack-Cali Hikes Dividend 33%   [Jun-12-17 11:23AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Brandywine Realty Trust reports 1Q results   [Apr-19-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brandywine Realty Trust Announces Executive Promotions   [Mar-13-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Seven REITs With Strong Earnings   [Feb-27-17 03:13PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Is Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [02:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Longtime Brandywine Realty general counsel joins local law firm   [Oct-04-16 02:57PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Sushi concept coming to Two Logan Square   [Aug-25-16 01:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Turnaround U: Here Are Tomorrow's Hot Colleges   [Aug-03-16 06:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ [$$] DDR Names Thomas August CEO   [Jul-11-16 08:39AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of BDN Financial statements of BDN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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