Intrinsic value of Beacon Roofing Supply - BECN

Previous Close

$40.36

  Intrinsic Value

$28.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

  Value-price divergence*

-25%

Previous close

$40.36

 
Intrinsic value

$28.01

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-25%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BECN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  64.10
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  4,127
  4,362
  4,608
  4,864
  5,132
  5,413
  5,706
  6,012
  6,333
  6,669
  7,020
  7,388
  7,774
  8,178
  8,601
  9,045
  9,510
  9,998
  10,510
  11,046
  11,609
  12,200
  12,819
  13,469
  14,150
  14,866
  15,617
  16,405
  17,231
  18,099
  19,010
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,115
  4,340
  4,575
  4,821
  5,078
  5,346
  5,627
  5,920
  6,228
  6,550
  6,767
  7,121
  7,491
  7,879
  8,285
  8,711
  9,158
  9,627
  10,118
  10,634
  11,174
  11,742
  12,337
  12,961
  13,617
  14,304
  15,026
  15,784
  16,578
  17,413
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,922
  4,137
  4,362
  4,598
  4,844
  5,102
  5,370
  5,652
  5,946
  6,254
  6,577
  6,795
  7,149
  7,520
  7,909
  8,315
  8,742
  9,190
  9,660
  10,152
  10,668
  11,209
  11,778
  12,374
  12,999
  13,656
  14,344
  15,067
  15,826
  16,621
  17,457
Operating income, $m
  205
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  335
  360
  387
  414
  443
  593
  625
  658
  693
  730
  768
  808
  850
  895
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,210
  1,272
  1,338
  1,406
  1,478
  1,553
EBITDA, $m
  305
  379
  401
  424
  448
  473
  499
  527
  556
  586
  617
  650
  685
  722
  760
  800
  842
  886
  932
  980
  1,031
  1,084
  1,140
  1,199
  1,261
  1,325
  1,393
  1,465
  1,539
  1,618
  1,701
Interest expense (income), $m
  58
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
  442
  467
  493
  521
  550
  581
  613
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  129
  140
  152
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  237
  253
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  646
  677
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
  897
  940
Tax expense, $m
  57
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
Net income, $m
  90
  94
  103
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  185
  285
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  374
  392
  411
  430
  450
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  686

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,114
  3,258
  3,441
  3,633
  3,833
  4,042
  4,261
  4,490
  4,730
  4,980
  5,243
  5,518
  5,806
  6,107
  6,424
  6,755
  7,103
  7,467
  7,849
  8,250
  8,670
  9,111
  9,573
  10,059
  10,568
  11,102
  11,663
  12,251
  12,869
  13,517
  14,197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,083
  3,258
  3,441
  3,633
  3,833
  4,042
  4,261
  4,490
  4,730
  4,980
  5,243
  5,518
  5,806
  6,107
  6,424
  6,755
  7,103
  7,467
  7,849
  8,250
  8,670
  9,111
  9,573
  10,059
  10,568
  11,102
  11,663
  12,251
  12,869
  13,517
  14,197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
Average production assets, $m
  395
  419
  442
  467
  493
  520
  548
  577
  608
  640
  674
  709
  746
  785
  826
  868
  913
  960
  1,009
  1,060
  1,114
  1,171
  1,231
  1,293
  1,358
  1,427
  1,499
  1,575
  1,654
  1,738
  1,825
Working capital, $m
  765
  790
  834
  880
  929
  980
  1,033
  1,088
  1,146
  1,207
  1,271
  1,337
  1,407
  1,480
  1,557
  1,637
  1,721
  1,810
  1,902
  1,999
  2,101
  2,208
  2,320
  2,438
  2,561
  2,691
  2,827
  2,969
  3,119
  3,276
  3,441
Total debt, $m
  1,133
  1,220
  1,325
  1,436
  1,551
  1,671
  1,797
  1,929
  2,067
  2,212
  2,363
  2,521
  2,687
  2,861
  3,043
  3,234
  3,434
  3,644
  3,864
  4,095
  4,337
  4,591
  4,857
  5,137
  5,430
  5,738
  6,061
  6,400
  6,755
  7,129
  7,521
Total liabilities, $m
  1,790
  1,877
  1,982
  2,093
  2,208
  2,328
  2,454
  2,586
  2,724
  2,869
  3,020
  3,178
  3,344
  3,518
  3,700
  3,891
  4,091
  4,301
  4,521
  4,752
  4,994
  5,248
  5,514
  5,794
  6,087
  6,395
  6,718
  7,057
  7,412
  7,786
  8,178
Total equity, $m
  1,324
  1,381
  1,459
  1,540
  1,625
  1,714
  1,807
  1,904
  2,005
  2,112
  2,223
  2,340
  2,462
  2,590
  2,724
  2,864
  3,012
  3,166
  3,328
  3,498
  3,676
  3,863
  4,059
  4,265
  4,481
  4,707
  4,945
  5,195
  5,456
  5,731
  6,020
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,114
  3,258
  3,441
  3,633
  3,833
  4,042
  4,261
  4,490
  4,729
  4,981
  5,243
  5,518
  5,806
  6,108
  6,424
  6,755
  7,103
  7,467
  7,849
  8,250
  8,670
  9,111
  9,573
  10,059
  10,568
  11,102
  11,663
  12,252
  12,868
  13,517
  14,198
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.856
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.419
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  90
  94
  103
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  185
  285
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  374
  392
  411
  430
  450
  472
  494
  518
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  686
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  100
  154
  155
  157
  160
  162
  164
  166
  169
  171
  174
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  344
  359
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  431
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
  571
  598
  627
  658
  689
  723
  758
  795
  834
Change in working capital, $m
  -119
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
Cash from operations, $m
  121
  205
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
  608
  638
  669
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,043
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
Free cash flow, $m
  -922
  150
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  906
  102
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  280
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  373
  392
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  907
  102
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  280
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  373
  392
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  251
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  319
  333
  346
  361
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  520
  545
  571
  599
  627
  658
  689
  723
  758
  794
  833
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -441
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -288
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  194
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  227
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  431
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  180
  158
  151
  143
  134
  125
  115
  105
  94
  84
  65
  57
  49
  42
  35
  29
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes residential and non-residential roofing materials, and other complementary building materials to contractors, home builders, retailers, and building materials suppliers. The company’s residential roofing products include asphalt shingles, synthetic slates and tiles, clay and concrete tiles, slates, nail base insulations, metal roofing, felts, synthetic underlayment, wood shingles and shakes, nails and fasteners, metal edgings and flashings, prefabricated flashings, ridges and soffit vents, and other accessories. Its non-residential roofing products comprise single-ply roofing, asphalt, metal, modified bitumen, and build-up roofing products; cements and coatings; flat stock and tapered insulations; commercial fasteners; metal edges and flashings; smoke/roof hatches; roofing tools; sheet metal products, including copper, aluminum, and steel; and PVC, thermoplastic olefin, and ethylene propylene diene monomer membrane products. The company also provides complementary building products, such as vinyl, wood, and fiber cement sidings; and stone veneers, windows, doors, skylights, and gutters and downspouts, as well as decking and railing, water proofing, building insulation, and millwork products. In addition, it offers value-added services primarily, including advice and assistance on product identification, specification, and technical support; job site delivery, rooftop loading, and logistical services; tapered insulation design and related layout services; metal fabrication and related metal roofing design and layout services; trade credit; and marketing support for contractors. As of September 30, 2016, the company operated through a network of 368 branches in 46 states of the United States and 6 provinces in Canada. Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 64.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.4%
Total Debt to Equity 85.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 38.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

BECN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BECN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Beacon Roofing Supply. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Beacon Roofing Supply. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BECN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for BECN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Beacon Roofing Supply, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Beacon Roofing Supply.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BECN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BECN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Beacon Roofing Supply.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Beacon Roofing Supply. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BECN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BECN are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Beacon Roofing Supply operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BECN is equal to 18.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1324 million for Beacon Roofing Supply - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.304 million for Beacon Roofing Supply is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Beacon Roofing Supply at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 16th   [Aug-16-17 10:00AM  Zacks]
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▶ Beacon Roofing misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Beacon Roofing reports 2Q loss   [May-04-17 04:06PM  Associated Press]
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Stock chart of BECN Financial statements of BECN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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