Intrinsic value of Beacon Roofing Supply - BECN

Previous Close

$61.64

  Intrinsic Value

$24.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$61.64

 
Intrinsic value

$24.69

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BECN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  64.10
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  4,127
  4,346
  4,575
  4,815
  5,066
  5,329
  5,605
  5,894
  6,197
  6,515
  6,849
  7,198
  7,565
  7,950
  8,353
  8,776
  9,221
  9,687
  10,176
  10,689
  11,228
  11,794
  12,387
  13,010
  13,664
  14,351
  15,071
  15,828
  16,622
  17,456
  18,331
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,100
  4,310
  4,530
  4,760
  5,001
  5,254
  5,519
  5,796
  6,088
  6,393
  6,593
  6,929
  7,282
  7,651
  8,039
  8,446
  8,873
  9,321
  9,791
  10,285
  10,803
  11,346
  11,917
  12,516
  13,145
  13,805
  14,498
  15,225
  15,989
  16,791
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,922
  4,122
  4,332
  4,553
  4,783
  5,025
  5,278
  5,544
  5,822
  6,114
  6,420
  6,621
  6,957
  7,311
  7,681
  8,069
  8,477
  8,905
  9,354
  9,825
  10,319
  10,838
  11,382
  11,954
  12,554
  13,184
  13,845
  14,539
  15,267
  16,032
  16,835
Operating income, $m
  205
  224
  243
  262
  283
  304
  327
  351
  375
  401
  429
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  744
  782
  822
  865
  909
  956
  1,005
  1,056
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
  1,289
  1,355
  1,424
  1,496
EBITDA, $m
  305
  377
  398
  419
  442
  465
  490
  516
  543
  572
  602
  633
  666
  701
  737
  775
  815
  857
  901
  947
  996
  1,047
  1,101
  1,157
  1,216
  1,278
  1,343
  1,412
  1,483
  1,559
  1,638
Interest expense (income), $m
  58
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  223
  238
  253
  268
  285
  302
  320
  339
  359
  380
  402
  425
  449
  474
  501
  529
  558
  589
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  128
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  380
  398
  416
  435
  455
  475
  497
  520
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  752
  788
  826
  865
  907
Tax expense, $m
  57
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Net income, $m
  90
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  662

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,114
  3,246
  3,417
  3,596
  3,783
  3,980
  4,186
  4,402
  4,628
  4,866
  5,115
  5,376
  5,650
  5,937
  6,238
  6,554
  6,886
  7,234
  7,600
  7,983
  8,386
  8,808
  9,251
  9,716
  10,205
  10,718
  11,256
  11,821
  12,414
  13,036
  13,690
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,083
  3,246
  3,417
  3,596
  3,783
  3,980
  4,186
  4,402
  4,628
  4,866
  5,115
  5,376
  5,650
  5,937
  6,238
  6,554
  6,886
  7,234
  7,600
  7,983
  8,386
  8,808
  9,251
  9,716
  10,205
  10,718
  11,256
  11,821
  12,414
  13,036
  13,690
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
  1.339
Average production assets, $m
  395
  417
  439
  462
  486
  512
  538
  566
  595
  625
  657
  691
  726
  763
  802
  843
  885
  930
  977
  1,026
  1,078
  1,132
  1,189
  1,249
  1,312
  1,378
  1,447
  1,519
  1,596
  1,676
  1,760
Working capital, $m
  765
  787
  828
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,067
  1,122
  1,179
  1,240
  1,303
  1,369
  1,439
  1,512
  1,589
  1,669
  1,753
  1,842
  1,935
  2,032
  2,135
  2,242
  2,355
  2,473
  2,597
  2,728
  2,865
  3,009
  3,159
  3,318
Total debt, $m
  1,133
  1,212
  1,311
  1,414
  1,522
  1,635
  1,754
  1,879
  2,009
  2,146
  2,289
  2,439
  2,597
  2,763
  2,936
  3,118
  3,309
  3,510
  3,720
  3,941
  4,173
  4,416
  4,672
  4,940
  5,221
  5,516
  5,826
  6,152
  6,493
  6,852
  7,228
Total liabilities, $m
  1,790
  1,869
  1,968
  2,071
  2,179
  2,292
  2,411
  2,536
  2,666
  2,803
  2,946
  3,096
  3,254
  3,420
  3,593
  3,775
  3,966
  4,167
  4,377
  4,598
  4,830
  5,073
  5,329
  5,597
  5,878
  6,173
  6,483
  6,809
  7,150
  7,509
  7,885
Total equity, $m
  1,324
  1,376
  1,449
  1,525
  1,604
  1,687
  1,775
  1,866
  1,962
  2,063
  2,169
  2,279
  2,395
  2,517
  2,645
  2,779
  2,920
  3,067
  3,222
  3,385
  3,555
  3,735
  3,922
  4,120
  4,327
  4,544
  4,772
  5,012
  5,263
  5,527
  5,805
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,114
  3,245
  3,417
  3,596
  3,783
  3,979
  4,186
  4,402
  4,628
  4,866
  5,115
  5,375
  5,649
  5,937
  6,238
  6,554
  6,886
  7,234
  7,599
  7,983
  8,385
  8,808
  9,251
  9,717
  10,205
  10,717
  11,255
  11,821
  12,413
  13,036
  13,690
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.856
  0.880
  0.900
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.419
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  90
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  662
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  100
  153
  155
  157
  159
  161
  163
  165
  168
  170
  173
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  247
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  459
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
Change in working capital, $m
  -119
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  158
Cash from operations, $m
  121
  207
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  616
  646
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,043
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
Free cash flow, $m
  -922
  153
  159
  164
  170
  175
  181
  188
  194
  201
  208
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  906
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  907
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  247
  258
  267
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  338
  352
  334
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  438
  459
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  697
  731
  766
  803
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -441
  -68
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -277
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  195
  185
  192
  198
  205
  213
  221
  229
  237
  246
  223
  233
  244
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  398
  417
  437
  457
  479
  502
  526
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  182
  159
  151
  143
  133
  124
  114
  104
  93
  83
  64
  56
  48
  41
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. is engaged in the distribution of residential and non-residential roofing materials in the United States and Canada. It also distributes complementary building products for residential and non-residential building exteriors. Its product portfolio includes residential roofing products, non-residential roofing products and complementary building products. The residential roofing products include asphalt shingles, clay tile, slate and metal roofing, among others. The non-residential roofing products include single-ply roofing, asphalt, metal, modified bitumen and build-up roofing, among others. The complementary building products include vinyl siding, fiber cement siding, stone veneer and windows, among others. The Company offers its products under various trade names, including Alabama Roofing Supply, Atlantic Building Products, Applicators Sales, Southern Roof Center, Statewide Wholesale, Structural Materials and The Roof Center.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 64.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.4%
Total Debt to Equity 85.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 38.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

BECN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BECN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Beacon Roofing Supply. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Beacon Roofing Supply. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BECN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for BECN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Beacon Roofing Supply, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Beacon Roofing Supply.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BECN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BECN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Beacon Roofing Supply.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Beacon Roofing Supply. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BECN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BECN are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Beacon Roofing Supply operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BECN is equal to 18.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1324 million for Beacon Roofing Supply - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.798 million for Beacon Roofing Supply is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Beacon Roofing Supply at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Beacon Roofing misses 4Q profit forecasts   [04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Beacon Roofing Supply Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hurricane history favours U.S. building suppliers   [Oct-09-17 06:30AM  Reuters]
▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: Beacon Roofing Supply   [Oct-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 11th   [Sep-11-17 10:22AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 5th   [Sep-05-17 10:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Stock Market News For August 25, 2017   [Aug-25-17 10:04AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Beacon Roofing Supply Stock Jumped 10% on Thursday   [Aug-24-17 10:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 16th   [Aug-16-17 10:00AM  Zacks]
▶ What Makes Beacon Roofing (BECN) a Strong Sell?   [Aug-14-17 08:33AM  Zacks]
▶ Beacon Roofing misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:55PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BECN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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