Intrinsic value of Belmond - BEL

Previous Close

$13.60

  Intrinsic Value

$6.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

  Value-price divergence*

+377%

Previous close

$13.60

 
Intrinsic value

$6.38

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+377%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BEL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.18
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  550
  593
  637
  684
  732
  782
  834
  888
  944
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,194
  1,263
  1,335
  1,411
  1,489
  1,571
  1,657
  1,747
  1,841
  1,939
  2,042
  2,150
  2,263
  2,381
  2,505
  2,635
  2,771
  2,913
  3,063
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  105
  112
  119
  127
  134
  143
  151
  160
  169
  179
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
  290
  305
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  415
  436
  459
  482
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  466
  478
  490
  502
  515
  527
  541
  554
  568
  582
  597
  612
  627
  643
  659
  675
  692
  709
  727
  745
  764
  783
  803
  823
  843
Total operating expenses, $m
  490
  517
  534
  552
  571
  589
  609
  629
  650
  671
  694
  705
  729
  753
  778
  804
  831
  859
  888
  918
  949
  980
  1,014
  1,048
  1,083
  1,120
  1,158
  1,198
  1,239
  1,282
  1,325
Operating income, $m
  60
  76
  103
  132
  162
  193
  225
  259
  295
  332
  371
  423
  465
  510
  557
  606
  658
  712
  769
  829
  893
  959
  1,029
  1,102
  1,180
  1,261
  1,347
  1,437
  1,532
  1,632
  1,737
EBITDA, $m
  112
  138
  169
  202
  236
  271
  308
  346
  387
  429
  473
  519
  567
  618
  671
  727
  785
  847
  911
  979
  1,050
  1,125
  1,203
  1,286
  1,373
  1,465
  1,561
  1,662
  1,769
  1,881
  1,999
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
  189
  199
  211
  223
  235
  249
  262
  277
  292
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  35
  58
  82
  106
  132
  160
  188
  218
  249
  281
  327
  363
  401
  440
  482
  526
  572
  620
  671
  724
  781
  840
  903
  969
  1,038
  1,111
  1,188
  1,270
  1,355
  1,446
Tax expense, $m
  17
  9
  16
  22
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  67
  76
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  262
  280
  300
  321
  343
  366
  390
Net income, $m
  36
  26
  42
  60
  78
  97
  116
  137
  159
  182
  205
  239
  265
  292
  321
  352
  384
  417
  453
  490
  529
  570
  613
  659
  707
  758
  811
  868
  927
  989
  1,055

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  153
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,524
  1,479
  1,590
  1,705
  1,825
  1,950
  2,080
  2,215
  2,355
  2,501
  2,654
  2,812
  2,978
  3,150
  3,330
  3,518
  3,714
  3,919
  4,133
  4,357
  4,591
  4,837
  5,093
  5,362
  5,643
  5,938
  6,247
  6,571
  6,910
  7,265
  7,638
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,371
  1,479
  1,590
  1,705
  1,825
  1,950
  2,080
  2,215
  2,355
  2,501
  2,654
  2,812
  2,978
  3,150
  3,330
  3,518
  3,714
  3,919
  4,133
  4,357
  4,591
  4,837
  5,093
  5,362
  5,643
  5,938
  6,247
  6,571
  6,910
  7,265
  7,638
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
Average production assets, $m
  1,091
  1,176
  1,265
  1,357
  1,452
  1,552
  1,655
  1,762
  1,874
  1,990
  2,111
  2,237
  2,369
  2,506
  2,649
  2,799
  2,955
  3,118
  3,288
  3,466
  3,653
  3,848
  4,052
  4,266
  4,490
  4,724
  4,970
  5,227
  5,497
  5,780
  6,077
Working capital, $m
  107
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
Total debt, $m
  591
  652
  720
  790
  863
  939
  1,018
  1,100
  1,185
  1,274
  1,366
  1,463
  1,563
  1,668
  1,778
  1,892
  2,011
  2,136
  2,266
  2,402
  2,545
  2,694
  2,850
  3,013
  3,184
  3,363
  3,551
  3,748
  3,954
  4,170
  4,397
Total liabilities, $m
  838
  899
  967
  1,037
  1,110
  1,186
  1,265
  1,347
  1,432
  1,521
  1,613
  1,710
  1,810
  1,915
  2,025
  2,139
  2,258
  2,383
  2,513
  2,649
  2,792
  2,941
  3,097
  3,260
  3,431
  3,610
  3,798
  3,995
  4,201
  4,417
  4,644
Total equity, $m
  686
  580
  623
  668
  716
  764
  815
  868
  923
  981
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,235
  1,305
  1,379
  1,456
  1,536
  1,620
  1,708
  1,800
  1,896
  1,997
  2,102
  2,212
  2,328
  2,449
  2,576
  2,709
  2,848
  2,994
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,524
  1,479
  1,590
  1,705
  1,826
  1,950
  2,080
  2,215
  2,355
  2,502
  2,653
  2,812
  2,977
  3,150
  3,330
  3,518
  3,714
  3,919
  4,133
  4,357
  4,592
  4,837
  5,094
  5,362
  5,643
  5,938
  6,247
  6,571
  6,910
  7,265
  7,638
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.862
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.389
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  26
  42
  60
  78
  97
  116
  137
  159
  182
  205
  239
  265
  292
  321
  352
  384
  417
  453
  490
  529
  570
  613
  659
  707
  758
  811
  868
  927
  989
  1,055
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
Funds from operations, $m
  54
  88
  108
  129
  152
  175
  199
  224
  251
  279
  308
  335
  367
  400
  436
  472
  511
  552
  594
  639
  686
  736
  788
  843
  901
  961
  1,025
  1,093
  1,164
  1,238
  1,317
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  91
  111
  133
  155
  179
  203
  228
  255
  283
  312
  340
  372
  406
  441
  478
  517
  558
  601
  646
  693
  743
  796
  851
  909
  970
  1,035
  1,103
  1,174
  1,249
  1,328
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
New CAPEX, $m
  -55
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -297
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -408
  -429
  -450
  -471
  -495
  -520
  -546
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  -41
  -28
  -14
  1
  17
  33
  50
  68
  86
  105
  123
  144
  166
  190
  214
  240
  267
  296
  326
  357
  391
  426
  463
  501
  542
  585
  631
  679
  729
  783
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  16
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  82
  69
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  40
  41
  57
  74
  93
  112
  132
  153
  175
  198
  219
  245
  271
  299
  329
  359
  392
  426
  462
  500
  540
  582
  626
  672
  721
  773
  828
  885
  946
  1,009
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  148
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  147
  -2
  11
  27
  44
  61
  79
  98
  118
  138
  157
  180
  204
  229
  255
  283
  312
  342
  374
  408
  444
  481
  521
  562
  606
  652
  701
  752
  806
  863
Discount rate, %
 
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  137
  -2
  9
  20
  29
  36
  42
  46
  48
  49
  47
  45
  43
  39
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.8
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7

Belmond Ltd. (Belmond) is a hotel company and adventure travel operator. As of December 31, 2016, Belmond owned, partially-owned and/or operated 45 properties, consisting of 34 individual deluxe hotels, 29 of which are owned (including nine under long-term lease), five European tourist trains, two cruise ships in Myanmar (one of which is under long-term charter), one French canal cruise business consisting of five small canal boats, and one stand-alone restaurant in the United States. It operates through six segments: owned hotels in Europe, owned hotels in North America (including one stand-alone restaurant), owned hotels in Rest of world, owned trains and cruises, part-owned/managed hotels and part-owned/managed trains. As of December 31, 2016, Belmond's around the world portfolio of hotels in operation consisted of 3,272 individual guest rooms and multiple-room suites (keys).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Belmond (BEL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.3
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 232.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 85.4%
Total Debt to Equity 86.2%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.8%
EBITDA Margin 24.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 10.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 41.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 99%
Payout Ratio 0%

BEL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BEL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $550 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Belmond. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Belmond. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BEL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for BEL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Belmond, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Belmond.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BEL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $402 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BEL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7% for Belmond.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Belmond. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BEL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BEL are equal to 198.4%.

Life of production assets of 23.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Belmond operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BEL is equal to -7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $686 million for Belmond - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 120.648 million for Belmond is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Belmond at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Belmond Ltd. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:03AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Belmond Ltd. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-08-17 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Belmond reports 2Q loss   [12:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Belmond Ltd. Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-07-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Belmond Ltd. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 12th   [May-12-17 11:02AM  Zacks]
▶ Belmond reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Belmond Ltd. Value Analysis (NYSE:BEL) : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Belmond posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 07:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 Stocks with Exciting Interest Coverage Ratio   [Feb-21-17 07:44AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Belmond Ltd (BEL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-09-16 05:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Belmond Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Nov-02-16 05:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Onboard Ireland's most luxurious sleeper train   [Oct-21-16 05:37AM  at Financial Times]
▶ A Preview of This Weekend's Barron's   [Sep-10-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of BEL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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