Intrinsic value of Bright Horizons Family Solutions - BFAM

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$77.76

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BFAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.68
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  1,570
  1,572
  1,690
  1,813
  1,940
  2,073
  2,211
  2,354
  2,504
  2,659
  2,821
  2,989
  3,165
  3,348
  3,540
  3,739
  3,948
  4,166
  4,393
  4,632
  4,881
  5,141
  5,414
  5,700
  5,999
  6,312
  6,641
  6,985
  7,345
  7,723
  8,120
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,054
  1,124
  1,197
  1,274
  1,353
  1,435
  1,521
  1,610
  1,703
  1,800
  1,785
  1,890
  2,000
  2,114
  2,233
  2,358
  2,488
  2,624
  2,766
  2,915
  3,071
  3,234
  3,404
  3,583
  3,770
  3,966
  4,172
  4,387
  4,613
  4,850
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  305
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  381
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  442
  453
  465
  476
  488
  501
  513
  526
  539
  552
  566
  580
  595
  610
  625
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,384
  1,359
  1,437
  1,518
  1,603
  1,690
  1,781
  1,875
  1,973
  2,075
  2,181
  2,176
  2,291
  2,411
  2,535
  2,665
  2,800
  2,941
  3,089
  3,242
  3,403
  3,572
  3,747
  3,930
  4,122
  4,322
  4,532
  4,752
  4,982
  5,223
  5,475
Operating income, $m
  186
  213
  253
  294
  338
  383
  430
  479
  530
  584
  640
  813
  874
  938
  1,005
  1,074
  1,148
  1,224
  1,305
  1,389
  1,477
  1,570
  1,667
  1,770
  1,877
  1,990
  2,108
  2,233
  2,363
  2,501
  2,645
EBITDA, $m
  271
  363
  406
  450
  497
  545
  595
  648
  702
  759
  819
  881
  946
  1,014
  1,085
  1,159
  1,237
  1,319
  1,405
  1,494
  1,588
  1,687
  1,791
  1,899
  2,013
  2,133
  2,259
  2,391
  2,530
  2,676
  2,830
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
  257
  272
  287
Earnings before tax, $m
  143
  175
  210
  247
  286
  326
  368
  411
  457
  504
  554
  721
  775
  832
  891
  954
  1,019
  1,087
  1,159
  1,234
  1,313
  1,396
  1,483
  1,575
  1,671
  1,772
  1,878
  1,989
  2,106
  2,229
  2,358
Tax expense, $m
  48
  47
  57
  67
  77
  88
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  195
  209
  225
  241
  258
  275
  294
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  425
  451
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  637
Net income, $m
  95
  128
  153
  180
  209
  238
  268
  300
  334
  368
  405
  526
  566
  607
  651
  696
  744
  794
  846
  901
  959
  1,019
  1,083
  1,150
  1,220
  1,293
  1,371
  1,452
  1,537
  1,627
  1,722

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,359
  2,305
  2,478
  2,658
  2,845
  3,040
  3,242
  3,452
  3,671
  3,899
  4,136
  4,383
  4,641
  4,910
  5,190
  5,483
  5,789
  6,108
  6,442
  6,791
  7,156
  7,539
  7,939
  8,358
  8,796
  9,256
  9,737
  10,241
  10,770
  11,324
  11,906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,344
  2,305
  2,478
  2,658
  2,845
  3,040
  3,242
  3,452
  3,671
  3,899
  4,136
  4,383
  4,641
  4,910
  5,190
  5,483
  5,789
  6,108
  6,442
  6,791
  7,156
  7,539
  7,939
  8,358
  8,796
  9,256
  9,737
  10,241
  10,770
  11,324
  11,906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.670
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
  0.682
Average production assets, $m
  862
  875
  941
  1,010
  1,081
  1,155
  1,232
  1,311
  1,395
  1,481
  1,571
  1,665
  1,763
  1,865
  1,972
  2,083
  2,199
  2,320
  2,447
  2,580
  2,719
  2,864
  3,016
  3,175
  3,341
  3,516
  3,699
  3,890
  4,091
  4,302
  4,523
Working capital, $m
  -234
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -173
  -185
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -351
  -371
  -391
  -412
  -434
  -458
  -482
  -507
  -534
  -562
  -591
  -622
  -654
  -687
  -723
Total debt, $m
  1,141
  1,037
  1,151
  1,270
  1,394
  1,522
  1,656
  1,794
  1,939
  2,089
  2,246
  2,409
  2,579
  2,756
  2,942
  3,135
  3,337
  3,547
  3,768
  3,998
  4,239
  4,492
  4,756
  5,032
  5,321
  5,625
  5,942
  6,275
  6,624
  6,990
  7,374
Total liabilities, $m
  1,671
  1,521
  1,635
  1,754
  1,878
  2,006
  2,140
  2,278
  2,423
  2,573
  2,730
  2,893
  3,063
  3,240
  3,426
  3,619
  3,821
  4,031
  4,252
  4,482
  4,723
  4,976
  5,240
  5,516
  5,805
  6,109
  6,426
  6,759
  7,108
  7,474
  7,858
Total equity, $m
  688
  784
  842
  904
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,248
  1,326
  1,406
  1,490
  1,578
  1,669
  1,765
  1,864
  1,968
  2,077
  2,190
  2,309
  2,433
  2,563
  2,699
  2,842
  2,991
  3,147
  3,311
  3,482
  3,662
  3,850
  4,048
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,359
  2,305
  2,477
  2,658
  2,845
  3,039
  3,242
  3,452
  3,671
  3,899
  4,136
  4,383
  4,641
  4,909
  5,191
  5,483
  5,789
  6,108
  6,442
  6,791
  7,156
  7,539
  7,939
  8,358
  8,796
  9,256
  9,737
  10,241
  10,770
  11,324
  11,906
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.658
  1.320
  1.370
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  95
  128
  153
  180
  209
  238
  268
  300
  334
  368
  405
  526
  566
  607
  651
  696
  744
  794
  846
  901
  959
  1,019
  1,083
  1,150
  1,220
  1,293
  1,371
  1,452
  1,537
  1,627
  1,722
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  85
  151
  153
  156
  159
  162
  165
  168
  172
  175
  179
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  230
  278
  307
  336
  367
  400
  433
  469
  505
  543
  583
  594
  638
  683
  731
  781
  834
  889
  946
  1,006
  1,070
  1,136
  1,206
  1,279
  1,356
  1,437
  1,522
  1,611
  1,704
  1,803
  1,906
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  213
  295
  317
  347
  379
  412
  446
  481
  519
  557
  598
  609
  653
  700
  748
  799
  852
  908
  966
  1,028
  1,092
  1,159
  1,230
  1,305
  1,383
  1,465
  1,551
  1,641
  1,736
  1,836
  1,942
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
New CAPEX, $m
  -75
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -303
  -96
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
Free cash flow, $m
  -90
  199
  216
  241
  266
  294
  322
  351
  382
  414
  447
  451
  488
  526
  566
  607
  651
  697
  745
  795
  848
  903
  961
  1,022
  1,086
  1,154
  1,224
  1,299
  1,377
  1,459
  1,545
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  188
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -97
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  94
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  309
  330
  359
  390
  422
  455
  490
  526
  564
  604
  614
  658
  703
  751
  801
  853
  908
  965
  1,026
  1,089
  1,155
  1,225
  1,299
  1,376
  1,457
  1,542
  1,632
  1,726
  1,825
  1,929
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  40
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -198
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  253
  271
  298
  326
  356
  386
  418
  452
  487
  523
  530
  570
  612
  655
  701
  749
  799
  852
  907
  965
  1,026
  1,089
  1,156
  1,227
  1,301
  1,378
  1,460
  1,546
  1,636
  1,731
Discount rate, %
 
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  233
  229
  229
  225
  219
  210
  198
  185
  170
  154
  129
  114
  98
  84
  70
  57
  46
  36
  27
  21
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. provides child care, early education, and other services for employers and families. It operates through Full Service Center-Based Child Care, Back-Up Dependent Care, and Other Educational Advisory Services segments. The Full Service Center-Based Child Care segment offers traditional center-based child care, preschool, and elementary education services. The Back-Up Dependent Care segment provides center-based back-up child care, in-home care, mildly-ill care, and adult/elder care services. The Other Educational Advisory Services segment offers college preparation and admissions counseling, tuition reimbursement program administration, and related consulting services. As of June 30, 2016, it operated 935 child care and early education centers in 41 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, and India. The company was formerly known as Bright Horizons Solutions Corp. and changed its name to Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. in July 2012. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.2
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 153.2%
Total Debt to Equity 165.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
Payout Ratio 0%

BFAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BFAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1458 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bright Horizons Family Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bright Horizons Family Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BFAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for BFAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bright Horizons Family Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bright Horizons Family Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BFAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $298 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BFAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Bright Horizons Family Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bright Horizons Family Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BFAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BFAM are equal to 55.7%.

Life of production assets of 24.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bright Horizons Family Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BFAM is equal to -8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $728 million for Bright Horizons Family Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.307 million for Bright Horizons Family Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bright Horizons Family Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ [$$] Bright Horizons Stock Seen Reaching $76   [05:59AM  at Barrons.com]
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Stock chart of BFAM Financial statements of BFAM Annual reports of BFAM
Valuation of Stocks

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