Intrinsic value of Bright Horizons Family Solutions - BFAM

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$76.09

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$76.09

 
Intrinsic value

$39.90

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BFAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.68
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  1,570
  1,685
  1,804
  1,928
  2,056
  2,190
  2,329
  2,474
  2,625
  2,782
  2,946
  3,117
  3,296
  3,482
  3,676
  3,879
  4,092
  4,314
  4,546
  4,789
  5,043
  5,310
  5,588
  5,881
  6,187
  6,507
  6,843
  7,196
  7,565
  7,952
  8,359
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,466
  1,561
  1,660
  1,762
  1,868
  1,979
  2,094
  2,214
  2,339
  2,470
  2,479
  2,621
  2,769
  2,923
  3,085
  3,254
  3,430
  3,615
  3,808
  4,011
  4,222
  4,444
  4,676
  4,920
  5,175
  5,442
  5,722
  6,016
  6,324
  6,647
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,384
  1,466
  1,561
  1,660
  1,762
  1,868
  1,979
  2,094
  2,214
  2,339
  2,470
  2,479
  2,621
  2,769
  2,923
  3,085
  3,254
  3,430
  3,615
  3,808
  4,011
  4,222
  4,444
  4,676
  4,920
  5,175
  5,442
  5,722
  6,016
  6,324
  6,647
Operating income, $m
  186
  218
  243
  268
  294
  322
  350
  380
  411
  443
  476
  638
  675
  713
  753
  794
  838
  883
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,267
  1,332
  1,401
  1,473
  1,549
  1,628
  1,712
EBITDA, $m
  271
  383
  410
  438
  467
  498
  530
  563
  597
  633
  670
  709
  749
  792
  836
  882
  930
  981
  1,034
  1,089
  1,147
  1,207
  1,271
  1,337
  1,407
  1,479
  1,556
  1,636
  1,720
  1,808
  1,900
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
Earnings before tax, $m
  143
  178
  198
  219
  240
  263
  286
  311
  336
  362
  390
  546
  576
  607
  640
  674
  710
  747
  786
  827
  870
  915
  962
  1,011
  1,063
  1,117
  1,173
  1,233
  1,295
  1,360
  1,429
Tax expense, $m
  48
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  367
  386
Net income, $m
  95
  130
  144
  160
  175
  192
  209
  227
  245
  265
  285
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  738
  776
  815
  857
  900
  945
  993
  1,043

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,359
  2,514
  2,692
  2,877
  3,069
  3,269
  3,477
  3,693
  3,918
  4,153
  4,397
  4,653
  4,919
  5,197
  5,487
  5,790
  6,107
  6,438
  6,785
  7,148
  7,527
  7,925
  8,341
  8,777
  9,234
  9,712
  10,214
  10,740
  11,291
  11,869
  12,476
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,344
  2,514
  2,692
  2,877
  3,069
  3,269
  3,477
  3,693
  3,918
  4,153
  4,397
  4,653
  4,919
  5,197
  5,487
  5,790
  6,107
  6,438
  6,785
  7,148
  7,527
  7,925
  8,341
  8,777
  9,234
  9,712
  10,214
  10,740
  11,291
  11,869
  12,476
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Average production assets, $m
  862
  925
  990
  1,058
  1,129
  1,202
  1,279
  1,358
  1,441
  1,528
  1,618
  1,711
  1,809
  1,912
  2,018
  2,130
  2,246
  2,368
  2,496
  2,629
  2,769
  2,915
  3,068
  3,228
  3,396
  3,572
  3,757
  3,950
  4,153
  4,366
  4,589
Working capital, $m
  -234
  -174
  -186
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -287
  -303
  -321
  -339
  -359
  -379
  -400
  -421
  -444
  -468
  -493
  -519
  -547
  -576
  -606
  -637
  -670
  -705
  -741
  -779
  -819
  -861
Total debt, $m
  1,141
  1,245
  1,371
  1,501
  1,637
  1,778
  1,924
  2,077
  2,236
  2,402
  2,575
  2,755
  2,943
  3,139
  3,344
  3,558
  3,782
  4,016
  4,260
  4,516
  4,784
  5,065
  5,359
  5,666
  5,989
  6,327
  6,681
  7,052
  7,442
  7,850
  8,278
Total liabilities, $m
  1,671
  1,775
  1,901
  2,031
  2,167
  2,308
  2,454
  2,607
  2,766
  2,932
  3,105
  3,285
  3,473
  3,669
  3,874
  4,088
  4,312
  4,546
  4,790
  5,046
  5,314
  5,595
  5,889
  6,196
  6,519
  6,857
  7,211
  7,582
  7,972
  8,380
  8,808
Total equity, $m
  688
  739
  791
  846
  902
  961
  1,022
  1,086
  1,152
  1,221
  1,293
  1,368
  1,446
  1,528
  1,613
  1,702
  1,795
  1,893
  1,995
  2,101
  2,213
  2,330
  2,452
  2,580
  2,715
  2,855
  3,003
  3,157
  3,320
  3,490
  3,668
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,359
  2,514
  2,692
  2,877
  3,069
  3,269
  3,476
  3,693
  3,918
  4,153
  4,398
  4,653
  4,919
  5,197
  5,487
  5,790
  6,107
  6,439
  6,785
  7,147
  7,527
  7,925
  8,341
  8,776
  9,234
  9,712
  10,214
  10,739
  11,292
  11,870
  12,476
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.658
  1.680
  1.730
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.120
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  95
  130
  144
  160
  175
  192
  209
  227
  245
  265
  285
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  518
  545
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  738
  776
  815
  857
  900
  945
  993
  1,043
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  85
  165
  168
  170
  173
  176
  179
  183
  186
  190
  193
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
Funds from operations, $m
  230
  295
  312
  330
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  469
  495
  522
  550
  580
  611
  643
  677
  712
  749
  788
  828
  871
  916
  962
  1,011
  1,063
  1,116
  1,173
  1,232
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from operations, $m
  213
  349
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  424
  447
  470
  495
  486
  513
  541
  570
  601
  632
  666
  701
  737
  775
  815
  857
  901
  947
  995
  1,046
  1,099
  1,154
  1,213
  1,274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
New CAPEX, $m
  -75
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -303
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -366
  -384
  -403
Free cash flow, $m
  -90
  250
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
  325
  342
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
  428
  451
  476
  501
  527
  555
  584
  615
  646
  680
  714
  751
  789
  829
  871
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  187
  119
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -97
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  94
  119
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  369
  346
  364
  383
  403
  423
  445
  467
  490
  515
  506
  533
  560
  590
  620
  652
  685
  720
  757
  795
  836
  878
  922
  969
  1,017
  1,069
  1,122
  1,178
  1,237
  1,299
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  40
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  318
  294
  310
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  421
  443
  431
  454
  479
  504
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  794
  834
  877
  921
  967
  1,016
  1,067
  1,121
Discount rate, %
 
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  291
  244
  231
  217
  202
  185
  168
  150
  132
  115
  91
  77
  64
  53
  42
  33
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. provides child care, early education, and other services for employers and families. It operates through Full Service Center-Based Child Care, Back-Up Dependent Care, and Other Educational Advisory Services segments. The Full Service Center-Based Child Care segment offers traditional center-based child care, preschool, and elementary education services. The Back-Up Dependent Care segment provides center-based back-up child care, in-home care, mildly-ill care, and adult/elder care services. The Other Educational Advisory Services segment offers college preparation and admissions counseling, tuition reimbursement program administration, and related consulting services. As of June 30, 2016, it operated 935 child care and early education centers in 41 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, and India. The company was formerly known as Bright Horizons Solutions Corp. and changed its name to Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. in July 2012. Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.2
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 153.2%
Total Debt to Equity 165.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 33.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
Payout Ratio 0%

BFAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BFAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1570 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bright Horizons Family Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bright Horizons Family Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BFAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for BFAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bright Horizons Family Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bright Horizons Family Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BFAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BFAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Bright Horizons Family Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bright Horizons Family Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BFAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BFAM are equal to 54.9%.

Life of production assets of 24.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bright Horizons Family Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BFAM is equal to -10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $688 million for Bright Horizons Family Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.732 million for Bright Horizons Family Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bright Horizons Family Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ This Week's Hidden Gems: (BFAM)(CRHM)   [Mar-30-17 05:36PM  Zacks]
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