Intrinsic value of Saul Centers - BFS

Previous Close

$59.51

  Intrinsic Value

$3.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$59.51

 
Intrinsic value

$3.82

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BFS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.83
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  217
  221
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  304
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  618
  647
  679
  712
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  139
  142
  146
  150
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  387
  406
  426
  446
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  166
  169
  174
  179
  183
  189
  196
  203
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  479
  501
Operating income, $m
  56
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  162
  170
  180
  190
  200
  211
EBITDA, $m
  100
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Net income, $m
  45
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,343
  1,358
  1,389
  1,425
  1,465
  1,509
  1,558
  1,611
  1,669
  1,730
  1,797
  1,868
  1,944
  2,024
  2,110
  2,201
  2,298
  2,400
  2,508
  2,622
  2,742
  2,869
  3,004
  3,145
  3,294
  3,451
  3,616
  3,789
  3,972
  4,165
  4,367
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,335
  1,358
  1,389
  1,425
  1,465
  1,509
  1,558
  1,611
  1,669
  1,730
  1,797
  1,868
  1,944
  2,024
  2,110
  2,201
  2,298
  2,400
  2,508
  2,622
  2,742
  2,869
  3,004
  3,145
  3,294
  3,451
  3,616
  3,789
  3,972
  4,165
  4,367
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
  0.163
Average production assets, $m
  1,247
  1,272
  1,301
  1,335
  1,372
  1,414
  1,460
  1,509
  1,563
  1,621
  1,683
  1,750
  1,821
  1,896
  1,977
  2,062
  2,152
  2,248
  2,349
  2,456
  2,569
  2,688
  2,814
  2,946
  3,085
  3,232
  3,387
  3,550
  3,721
  3,901
  4,091
Working capital, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Total debt, $m
  832
  850
  873
  901
  932
  966
  1,003
  1,044
  1,088
  1,135
  1,186
  1,241
  1,299
  1,361
  1,427
  1,496
  1,570
  1,649
  1,731
  1,819
  1,911
  2,009
  2,112
  2,220
  2,334
  2,455
  2,581
  2,714
  2,855
  3,002
  3,157
Total liabilities, $m
  1,025
  1,042
  1,065
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,195
  1,236
  1,280
  1,327
  1,378
  1,433
  1,491
  1,553
  1,619
  1,688
  1,762
  1,841
  1,923
  2,011
  2,103
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,647
  2,773
  2,906
  3,047
  3,194
  3,349
Total equity, $m
  319
  316
  324
  332
  341
  352
  363
  375
  389
  403
  419
  435
  453
  472
  492
  513
  535
  559
  584
  611
  639
  669
  700
  733
  767
  804
  842
  883
  926
  970
  1,018
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,344
  1,358
  1,389
  1,425
  1,465
  1,510
  1,558
  1,611
  1,669
  1,730
  1,797
  1,868
  1,944
  2,025
  2,111
  2,201
  2,297
  2,400
  2,507
  2,622
  2,742
  2,870
  3,004
  3,145
  3,293
  3,451
  3,615
  3,789
  3,973
  4,164
  4,367
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.608
  2.690
  2.700
  2.710
  2.730
  2.750
  2.760
  2.780
  2.800
  2.820
  2.830
  2.850
  2.870
  2.880
  2.900
  2.920
  2.930
  2.950
  2.960
  2.980
  2.990
  3.000
  3.020
  3.030
  3.040
  3.050
  3.060
  3.070
  3.080
  3.090
  3.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  145
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  89
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -190
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -296
  -311
  -328
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  18
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  148
  155
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  18
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  50
  55
  58
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  96
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  157
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  2
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7
  99.5
  99.2
  99.0
  98.7
  98.4
  98.1
  97.8
  97.5
  97.2
  96.9
  96.6
  96.2
  95.9
  95.6
  95.3
  95.0
  94.7
  94.4
  94.2
  93.9
  93.6
  93.4
  93.2

Saul Centers Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets of the United States. The firm operates and manages community and neighborhood shopping center and office properties. Saul Centers Inc. was founded in June 10, 1993 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Saul Centers (BFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.7
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 260.8%
Total Debt to Equity 260.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.1%
Operating Margin 25.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Net Profit Margin 20.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 115.6%

BFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $217 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Saul Centers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Saul Centers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for BFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Saul Centers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Saul Centers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Saul Centers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Saul Centers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BFS are equal to 574.7%.

Life of production assets of 28.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Saul Centers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BFS is equal to -3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $319 million for Saul Centers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.891 million for Saul Centers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Saul Centers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Jun-22-17 04:50PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Small-format Target is coming to Ballston   [May-16-17 02:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Saul Centers reports 1Q results   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Saul Centers, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2017 Earnings   [May-04-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heres where these D.C.-area billionaires rank on Forbes 2017 list   [Mar-21-17 03:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Heres where these D.C.-area billionaires rank on Forbes 2017 list   [03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Mar-17-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Saul Centers reports 4Q results   [Mar-07-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 10:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Dec-09-16 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Sep-22-16 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Jun-23-16 04:11PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Dec-03  04:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Sep-17  04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Saul Centers, Inc.   [Aug-05  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends   [Jun-18  04:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Saul Centers, Inc.   [May-09  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Saul Centers, Inc.   [Mar-08  08:08PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of BFS Financial statements of BFS Annual reports of BFS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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