Intrinsic value of Briggs&Stratton - BGG

Previous Close

$24.70

  Intrinsic Value

$6.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$24.70

 
Intrinsic value

$6.97

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BGG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,786
  1,822
  1,864
  1,912
  1,965
  2,025
  2,090
  2,161
  2,238
  2,322
  2,411
  2,506
  2,608
  2,716
  2,831
  2,953
  3,083
  3,220
  3,364
  3,517
  3,679
  3,850
  4,029
  4,219
  4,419
  4,629
  4,851
  5,084
  5,329
  5,587
  5,859
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,776
  1,816
  1,863
  1,915
  1,972
  2,035
  2,104
  2,178
  2,259
  2,345
  2,421
  2,519
  2,623
  2,735
  2,852
  2,977
  3,110
  3,250
  3,398
  3,554
  3,718
  3,892
  4,075
  4,268
  4,471
  4,685
  4,911
  5,147
  5,397
  5,659
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,689
  1,776
  1,816
  1,863
  1,915
  1,972
  2,035
  2,104
  2,178
  2,259
  2,345
  2,421
  2,519
  2,623
  2,735
  2,852
  2,977
  3,110
  3,250
  3,398
  3,554
  3,718
  3,892
  4,075
  4,268
  4,471
  4,685
  4,911
  5,147
  5,397
  5,659
Operating income, $m
  97
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  85
  89
  93
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
EBITDA, $m
  153
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Interest expense (income), $m
  19
  19
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  108
  115
  124
  132
  141
  151
  161
  171
  182
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  27
  27
  27
  26
  26
  26
  25
  25
  24
  24
  40
  39
  38
  37
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  32
  31
  30
  28
  27
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
  17
Tax expense, $m
  23
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  11
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
Net income, $m
  57
  20
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  29
  28
  28
  27
  27
  26
  26
  25
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  14
  13

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,451
  1,417
  1,449
  1,486
  1,528
  1,575
  1,625
  1,681
  1,741
  1,805
  1,874
  1,949
  2,028
  2,112
  2,201
  2,296
  2,397
  2,504
  2,616
  2,735
  2,861
  2,993
  3,133
  3,281
  3,436
  3,600
  3,772
  3,953
  4,144
  4,345
  4,556
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,389
  1,417
  1,449
  1,486
  1,528
  1,575
  1,625
  1,681
  1,741
  1,805
  1,874
  1,949
  2,028
  2,112
  2,201
  2,296
  2,397
  2,504
  2,616
  2,735
  2,861
  2,993
  3,133
  3,281
  3,436
  3,600
  3,772
  3,953
  4,144
  4,345
  4,556
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.287
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.285
  1.286
  1.287
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
  1.286
Average production assets, $m
  448
  457
  468
  480
  493
  508
  525
  543
  562
  583
  605
  629
  655
  682
  711
  741
  774
  808
  844
  883
  923
  966
  1,011
  1,059
  1,109
  1,162
  1,217
  1,276
  1,338
  1,402
  1,471
Working capital, $m
  359
  302
  309
  317
  326
  336
  347
  359
  372
  385
  400
  416
  433
  451
  470
  490
  512
  534
  558
  584
  611
  639
  669
  700
  734
  768
  805
  844
  885
  927
  973
Total debt, $m
  222
  239
  260
  284
  311
  341
  373
  409
  448
  489
  533
  581
  632
  686
  743
  804
  869
  937
  1,010
  1,086
  1,167
  1,252
  1,342
  1,436
  1,536
  1,641
  1,752
  1,868
  1,990
  2,119
  2,255
Total liabilities, $m
  892
  909
  930
  954
  981
  1,011
  1,043
  1,079
  1,118
  1,159
  1,203
  1,251
  1,302
  1,356
  1,413
  1,474
  1,539
  1,607
  1,680
  1,756
  1,837
  1,922
  2,012
  2,106
  2,206
  2,311
  2,422
  2,538
  2,660
  2,789
  2,925
Total equity, $m
  559
  507
  519
  532
  547
  564
  582
  602
  623
  646
  671
  698
  726
  756
  788
  822
  858
  896
  937
  979
  1,024
  1,072
  1,122
  1,174
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,415
  1,484
  1,555
  1,631
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,451
  1,416
  1,449
  1,486
  1,528
  1,575
  1,625
  1,681
  1,741
  1,805
  1,874
  1,949
  2,028
  2,112
  2,201
  2,296
  2,397
  2,503
  2,617
  2,735
  2,861
  2,994
  3,134
  3,280
  3,436
  3,600
  3,772
  3,953
  4,144
  4,344
  4,556
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.397
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.570
  0.600
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.790
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.940
  0.980
  1.010
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.250
  1.270
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358
  0.358

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  20
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  29
  28
  28
  27
  27
  26
  26
  25
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  14
  13
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  53
  78
  79
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  86
  87
  89
  87
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  138
  143
  148
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  72
  72
  72
  72
  72
  72
  73
  73
  74
  74
  71
  72
  72
  73
  75
  76
  77
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
New CAPEX, $m
  -83
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  4
  1
  -1
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  17
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  0
  0
  2
  5
  7
  10
  13
  15
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  17
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  48
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  87
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  164
  175
  187
  199
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  39
  40
  41
  41
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  39
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -65
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  91
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  12
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  87
  26
  24
  21
  19
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  6
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.1
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.4
  98.1
  97.6
  97.0
  96.2
  95.3
  94.4
  93.3
  92.1
  90.8
  89.4
  88.0
  86.5
  85.0
  83.4
  81.7
  80.1
  78.4

Briggs & Stratton Corporation is a producer of gasoline engines for outdoor power equipment. The Company designs, manufactures, markets, sells and services the various products for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) around the world. It also markets and sells related service parts and accessories for its engines. Its subsidiary is a marketer of pressure washers, and it is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of power generation, lawn and garden, turf care and job site products through its Simplicity, Snapper, Snapper Pro, Ferris, PowerBoss, Allmand, Billy Goat, Murray, Branco and Victa brands. It operates in over 100 countries on six continents. It operates through two segments: Engines and Products. Its Engines segment sells engines around the world, primarily to OEMs of lawn and garden equipment and other gasoline engine-powered equipment. Its Products segment designs, manufactures and markets a range of outdoor power equipment, job site products and related accessories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Briggs&Stratton (BGG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 151
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 39.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 10.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 42.1%

BGG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BGG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1786 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Briggs&Stratton. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Briggs&Stratton. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BGG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BGG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Briggs&Stratton, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Briggs&Stratton.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BGG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BGG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.6% for Briggs&Stratton.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Briggs&Stratton. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BGG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BGG are equal to 25.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Briggs&Stratton operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BGG is equal to 16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Briggs&Stratton - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.597 million for Briggs&Stratton is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Briggs&Stratton at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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▶ Briggs & Stratton reports 1Q loss   [Oct-25-17 07:51PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Why Briggs & Stratton Stock Climbed 9% Today   [Apr-21-17 06:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Briggs & Stratton tops 3Q profit forecasts   [Apr-20-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Briggs & Stratton Declares Dividend   [12:12PM  PR Newswire]
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Financial statements of BGG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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