Intrinsic value of Birks Group - BGI

Previous Close

$1.57

  Intrinsic Value

$2.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+27%

Previous close

$1.57

 
Intrinsic value

$2.00

 
Up/down potential

+27%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  287
  293
  299
  307
  316
  325
  336
  347
  360
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  475
  495
  517
  541
  565
  591
  619
  648
  678
  710
  744
  779
  817
  856
  898
  941
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  276
  283
  290
  298
  307
  317
  328
  340
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  429
  448
  468
  488
  510
  534
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  808
  848
  889
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  279
  276
  283
  290
  298
  307
  317
  328
  340
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  429
  448
  468
  488
  510
  534
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  808
  848
  889
Operating income, $m
  8
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
EBITDA, $m
  13
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Net income, $m
  5
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  179
  181
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  319
  334
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  177
  181
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  319
  334
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.621
  1.619
  1.616
  1.624
  1.621
  1.617
  1.623
  1.621
  1.622
  1.622
  1.619
  1.625
  1.624
  1.621
  1.619
  1.621
  1.618
  1.621
  1.620
  1.619
  1.619
  1.620
  1.624
  1.622
  1.621
  1.621
  1.620
  1.621
  1.621
  1.621
  1.620
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Working capital, $m
  22
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  168
  175
  183
  192
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
Total debt, $m
  104
  101
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  191
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  298
  314
  332
  351
  371
  392
  413
  436
  461
Total liabilities, $m
  166
  163
  166
  171
  175
  181
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  253
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  360
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  523
Total equity, $m
  13
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  179
  181
  184
  190
  194
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  281
  292
  306
  319
  333
  349
  364
  381
  400
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  581
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.000
  5.570
  5.640
  5.730
  5.820
  5.910
  6.010
  6.110
  6.210
  6.310
  6.410
  6.500
  6.600
  6.700
  6.790
  6.880
  6.970
  7.060
  7.140
  7.220
  7.300
  7.380
  7.450
  7.520
  7.580
  7.650
  7.710
  7.770
  7.830
  7.880
  7.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.073
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  -1
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  -1
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  3
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -5
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Discount rate, %
 
  13.50
  14.18
  14.88
  15.63
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  19.00
  19.95
  20.94
  21.99
  23.09
  24.24
  25.46
  26.73
  28.07
  29.47
  30.94
  32.49
  34.11
  35.82
  37.61
  39.49
  41.47
  43.54
  45.72
  48.00
  50.40
  52.92
  55.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Birks Group Inc is a Canada-based company engaged in designing, developing, making and retail of jewelry, timepieces and gifts. The Company operates through two segments: Retail and Other. The Company's Retail segment consists of all its retail operations in the United States and Canada on a combined basis. As of March 26, 2016, the Retail segment operated 27 stores across Canada under the Birks brand, 17 stores in the Southeastern United States under the Mayors brand, a store under the Rolex brand name in Orlando, as well as two retail locations in Calgary and Vancouver under the Brinkhaus brand. The Company's Other segment consists primarily of its e-commerce business, gold exchange business, which purchases gold and other precious metals from clients and refines the metals purchased, and wholesale business. The Company's merchandise includes designer jewelry, diamond, gemstone and precious metal jewelry.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Birks Group (BGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 238.5%
Total Debt to Equity 800%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity 47.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 2.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $287 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Birks Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Birks Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.5%, whose default value for BGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Birks Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Birks Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Birks Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Birks Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BGI are equal to 0.3%.

Life of production assets of 0.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Birks Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BGI is equal to 32.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $13 million for Birks Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.96 million for Birks Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Birks Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Birks unveils the first 200 diamonds from Quebec   [May-11-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Birks Group reports mid-year results   [Nov-16-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Birks Group reports mid-year results   [09:00AM  CNW Group]
▶ Birks Group Reports Mid-Year Results   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for September 2016 (BGI)   [Sep-01-16 12:32PM  Investopedia]
▶ Birks Group Announces a Turnaround in Fiscal Year 2016:   [Jul-05-16 10:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ National Post Article   [Jul-11  05:09PM  Business Wire]
▶ Skadden Tops H1 Global M&A Rankings: Business of Law   [Jul-08  02:51PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Bird & Bird Links to Indonesian Firms: Business of Law   [Jun-26  12:00AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Birks Group reports Q3 revenue $94.5M vs. $101.4M a year ago   [Jan-14  04:05PM  theflyonthewall.com]
▶ HEAT, Mayors Jewelers Unveil Sparkling Partnership   [Dec-05  12:56PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Birks & Mayors Announces a Corporate Name Change   [Sep-30  02:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ Birks & Mayors Announces a $4.8 Million New Financing   [Aug-12  02:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Birks & Mayors Announces New Financings   [Jul-31  12:44PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of BGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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