Intrinsic value of Benchmark Electronics - BHE

Previous Close

$31.35

  Intrinsic Value

$26.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

  Value-price divergence*

+222%

Previous close

$31.35

 
Intrinsic value

$26.64

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+222%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BHE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.09
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  2,310
  2,386
  2,469
  2,558
  2,655
  2,758
  2,868
  2,986
  3,111
  3,243
  3,384
  3,533
  3,691
  3,858
  4,034
  4,220
  4,416
  4,623
  4,841
  5,071
  5,313
  5,568
  5,836
  6,118
  6,414
  6,726
  7,054
  7,399
  7,762
  8,143
  8,544
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,199
  2,275
  2,357
  2,445
  2,539
  2,640
  2,747
  2,861
  2,983
  3,111
  3,228
  3,372
  3,525
  3,686
  3,856
  4,035
  4,224
  4,423
  4,633
  4,854
  5,087
  5,332
  5,590
  5,861
  6,146
  6,446
  6,761
  7,092
  7,440
  7,806
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  111
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  177
  181
  186
  191
  195
  200
  205
  210
  216
  221
  227
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,235
  2,310
  2,388
  2,473
  2,564
  2,661
  2,765
  2,875
  2,993
  3,118
  3,249
  3,370
  3,517
  3,674
  3,839
  4,012
  4,195
  4,388
  4,591
  4,806
  5,031
  5,268
  5,518
  5,781
  6,056
  6,346
  6,651
  6,971
  7,308
  7,661
  8,033
Operating income, $m
  76
  76
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  249
  265
  282
  299
  318
  337
  358
  380
  404
  428
  454
  482
  511
EBITDA, $m
  131
  124
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  290
  307
  325
  345
  365
  387
  410
  435
  460
  488
  516
  547
  579
  613
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
Earnings before tax, $m
  68
  69
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  146
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  280
  297
  315
  334
  355
  376
  399
  423
  449
Tax expense, $m
  4
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
Net income, $m
  64
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  106
  113
  119
  127
  134
  143
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  681
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,999
  1,361
  1,408
  1,459
  1,514
  1,573
  1,636
  1,703
  1,774
  1,850
  1,930
  2,016
  2,106
  2,201
  2,301
  2,407
  2,519
  2,637
  2,762
  2,893
  3,031
  3,176
  3,329
  3,490
  3,659
  3,837
  4,024
  4,221
  4,428
  4,645
  4,874
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,318
  1,361
  1,408
  1,459
  1,514
  1,573
  1,636
  1,703
  1,774
  1,850
  1,930
  2,016
  2,106
  2,201
  2,301
  2,407
  2,519
  2,637
  2,762
  2,893
  3,031
  3,176
  3,329
  3,490
  3,659
  3,837
  4,024
  4,221
  4,428
  4,645
  4,874
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.753
  1.753
  1.754
  1.753
  1.754
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.754
  1.753
  1.753
  1.752
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
Average production assets, $m
  274
  284
  294
  304
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  386
  403
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  603
  632
  663
  694
  728
  763
  800
  839
  881
  924
  969
  1,017
Working capital, $m
  1,120
  465
  481
  499
  518
  538
  559
  582
  607
  632
  660
  689
  720
  752
  787
  823
  861
  902
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,086
  1,138
  1,193
  1,251
  1,312
  1,376
  1,443
  1,514
  1,588
  1,666
Total debt, $m
  224
  232
  255
  279
  305
  333
  362
  394
  428
  463
  501
  541
  584
  629
  676
  726
  779
  835
  894
  955
  1,021
  1,089
  1,161
  1,237
  1,317
  1,401
  1,489
  1,582
  1,680
  1,783
  1,890
Total liabilities, $m
  633
  642
  665
  689
  715
  743
  772
  804
  838
  873
  911
  951
  994
  1,039
  1,086
  1,136
  1,189
  1,245
  1,304
  1,365
  1,431
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
  1,727
  1,811
  1,899
  1,992
  2,090
  2,193
  2,300
Total equity, $m
  1,365
  719
  744
  771
  800
  831
  864
  899
  937
  977
  1,019
  1,064
  1,112
  1,162
  1,215
  1,271
  1,330
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,600
  1,677
  1,758
  1,843
  1,932
  2,026
  2,125
  2,229
  2,338
  2,453
  2,573
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,998
  1,361
  1,409
  1,460
  1,515
  1,574
  1,636
  1,703
  1,775
  1,850
  1,930
  2,015
  2,106
  2,201
  2,301
  2,407
  2,519
  2,638
  2,762
  2,892
  3,031
  3,176
  3,329
  3,490
  3,659
  3,837
  4,024
  4,221
  4,428
  4,646
  4,873
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.164
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  106
  113
  119
  127
  134
  143
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Funds from operations, $m
  415
  98
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  148
  157
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
  218
  231
  244
  259
  274
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
Change in working capital, $m
  142
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
Cash from operations, $m
  273
  83
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  263
  279
  295
  313
  331
  351
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
Free cash flow, $m
  252
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  182
  194
  206
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  215
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  669
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  712
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  194
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  683
  41
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  33
  32
  31
  27
  26
  24
  23
  21
  20
  18
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Benchmark Electronics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated electronic manufacturing services in the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The company offers engineering solutions, including new product design, prototype, testing, and related engineering solutions; solution development, concept, and design services; and custom automated test equipment, functional test equipment, process automation, and replication solutions. It also provides manufacturing and fulfillment solutions, such as printed circuit board assembly, assembly of subsystems, circuitry and functionality testing of printed assemblies, environmental and stress testing, and component reliability testing; flex circuit assembly and test solutions; and systems assembly and test solutions, as well as environmental stress tests of assemblies of boards or systems. In addition, the company offers failure analytical solutions; direct order fulfillment services, such as build-to-order and configure to order services; aftermarket non-warranty services, including repair, replacement, refurbishment, remanufacturing, exchange, systems upgrade, and spare parts manufacturing throughout a product’s life cycle; value-added support systems; and supply chain management solutions. Further, it provides precision subsystem and system integration services, including assembly, configuration, and testing of industrial control equipment, telecommunication equipment, computers, and related products. The company serves original equipment manufacturers of industrial control equipment, telecommunication equipment, computers and related products for business enterprises, medical devices, and testing and instrumentation products. It sells its products direct sales force, as well as through independent marketing representatives. The company was formerly known as Electronics, Inc. Benchmark Electronics, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is based in Angleton, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Benchmark Electronics (BHE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 57
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.5%
Total Debt to Equity 16.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BHE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BHE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2310 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Benchmark Electronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Benchmark Electronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BHE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BHE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Benchmark Electronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Benchmark Electronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BHE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $108 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BHE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Benchmark Electronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Benchmark Electronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BHE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BHE are equal to 11.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Benchmark Electronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BHE is equal to 19.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1365 million for Benchmark Electronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.41 million for Benchmark Electronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Benchmark Electronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Benchmark posts 2Q profit   [Jul-19-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Printed Circuit Board Stocks to Buy in 2017   [May-17-17 07:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Benchmark Electronics Announces Changes Among Officers   [May-16-17 06:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Houston-area electronics manufacturer to move corporate headquarters to Arizona   [Apr-20-17 03:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Benchmark posts 1Q profit   [Apr-19-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Benchmark posts 4Q profit   [07:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Benchmark Mails Letter to Shareholders   [May-04-16 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Benchmark Comments on ISS Recommendation   [Apr-28-16 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Benchmark Mails Letter to Shareholders   [Apr-26-16 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of BHE Financial statements of BHE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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