Intrinsic value of Benchmark Electronics - BHE

Previous Close

$31.00

  Intrinsic Value

$27.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-12%

  Value-price divergence*

-30%

Previous close

$31.00

 
Intrinsic value

$27.21

 
Up/down potential

-12%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-30%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BHE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.09
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  2,310
  2,462
  2,621
  2,786
  2,958
  3,137
  3,323
  3,518
  3,721
  3,932
  4,153
  4,384
  4,625
  4,877
  5,141
  5,417
  5,706
  6,008
  6,324
  6,656
  7,003
  7,367
  7,748
  8,147
  8,566
  9,006
  9,466
  9,949
  10,456
  10,988
  11,545
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,269
  2,414
  2,565
  2,722
  2,885
  3,056
  3,233
  3,419
  3,612
  3,814
  4,006
  4,226
  4,456
  4,697
  4,949
  5,213
  5,489
  5,778
  6,081
  6,398
  6,731
  7,079
  7,444
  7,827
  8,228
  8,649
  9,091
  9,553
  10,039
  10,549
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  111
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  177
  181
  186
  191
  195
  200
  205
  210
  216
  221
  227
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,235
  2,380
  2,527
  2,681
  2,841
  3,007
  3,181
  3,361
  3,551
  3,747
  3,952
  4,148
  4,371
  4,605
  4,850
  5,105
  5,373
  5,653
  5,946
  6,254
  6,575
  6,912
  7,265
  7,635
  8,022
  8,428
  8,854
  9,301
  9,769
  10,260
  10,776
Operating income, $m
  76
  83
  94
  105
  117
  129
  142
  156
  170
  185
  201
  237
  254
  272
  291
  311
  332
  354
  377
  402
  427
  454
  483
  513
  544
  577
  612
  648
  687
  727
  770
EBITDA, $m
  131
  136
  149
  163
  177
  192
  208
  224
  242
  260
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  387
  412
  438
  466
  495
  525
  558
  591
  627
  664
  703
  744
  788
  833
  881
  932
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
Earnings before tax, $m
  68
  75
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  178
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  403
  428
  454
  482
  511
  541
  574
  607
  643
  681
Tax expense, $m
  4
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  48
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
Net income, $m
  64
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  130
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  216
  230
  245
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  352
  373
  395
  419
  443
  470
  497

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  681
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,999
  1,405
  1,495
  1,589
  1,687
  1,789
  1,896
  2,007
  2,122
  2,243
  2,369
  2,501
  2,638
  2,782
  2,933
  3,090
  3,255
  3,427
  3,608
  3,797
  3,995
  4,202
  4,420
  4,648
  4,887
  5,137
  5,400
  5,676
  5,965
  6,268
  6,586
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,318
  1,405
  1,495
  1,589
  1,687
  1,789
  1,896
  2,007
  2,122
  2,243
  2,369
  2,501
  2,638
  2,782
  2,933
  3,090
  3,255
  3,427
  3,608
  3,797
  3,995
  4,202
  4,420
  4,648
  4,887
  5,137
  5,400
  5,676
  5,965
  6,268
  6,586
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.753
  1.752
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.754
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
  1.753
Average production assets, $m
  274
  293
  312
  332
  352
  373
  395
  419
  443
  468
  494
  522
  550
  580
  612
  645
  679
  715
  753
  792
  833
  877
  922
  970
  1,019
  1,072
  1,126
  1,184
  1,244
  1,308
  1,374
Working capital, $m
  1,120
  480
  511
  543
  577
  612
  648
  686
  725
  767
  810
  855
  902
  951
  1,003
  1,056
  1,113
  1,172
  1,233
  1,298
  1,366
  1,436
  1,511
  1,589
  1,670
  1,756
  1,846
  1,940
  2,039
  2,143
  2,251
Total debt, $m
  224
  253
  296
  340
  386
  435
  485
  537
  592
  649
  708
  770
  835
  903
  974
  1,049
  1,126
  1,208
  1,293
  1,382
  1,476
  1,573
  1,676
  1,784
  1,896
  2,015
  2,139
  2,269
  2,405
  2,548
  2,699
Total liabilities, $m
  633
  663
  706
  750
  796
  845
  895
  947
  1,002
  1,059
  1,118
  1,180
  1,245
  1,313
  1,384
  1,459
  1,536
  1,618
  1,703
  1,792
  1,886
  1,983
  2,086
  2,194
  2,306
  2,425
  2,549
  2,679
  2,815
  2,958
  3,109
Total equity, $m
  1,365
  742
  789
  839
  891
  945
  1,001
  1,060
  1,121
  1,184
  1,251
  1,320
  1,393
  1,469
  1,548
  1,632
  1,719
  1,810
  1,905
  2,005
  2,109
  2,219
  2,334
  2,454
  2,580
  2,712
  2,851
  2,997
  3,149
  3,309
  3,477
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,998
  1,405
  1,495
  1,589
  1,687
  1,790
  1,896
  2,007
  2,123
  2,243
  2,369
  2,500
  2,638
  2,782
  2,932
  3,091
  3,255
  3,428
  3,608
  3,797
  3,995
  4,202
  4,420
  4,648
  4,886
  5,137
  5,400
  5,676
  5,964
  6,267
  6,586
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.164
  0.340
  0.370
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528
  0.528

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  130
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  216
  230
  245
  260
  277
  294
  312
  331
  352
  373
  395
  419
  443
  470
  497
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
Funds from operations, $m
  415
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  208
  216
  230
  246
  261
  278
  296
  314
  333
  353
  375
  397
  421
  445
  471
  499
  528
  558
  590
  623
  659
Change in working capital, $m
  142
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Cash from operations, $m
  273
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  171
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  368
  390
  413
  438
  464
  491
  520
  550
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
Free cash flow, $m
  252
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  85
  93
  102
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  212
  226
  241
  257
  274
  291
  310
  330
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  215
  69
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  148
  158
  170
  181
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  283
  301
  319
  339
  359
  381
  404
  428
  453
  480
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  669
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  692
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  140
  150
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  227
  242
  258
  275
  293
  312
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  663
  26
  29
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  40
  40
  37
  37
  36
  34
  32
  30
  28
  26
  23
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Benchmark Electronics, Inc. is a provider of electronic manufacturing services. The Company operates through three segments: the Americas, Asia and Europe. It provides services to original equipment manufacturers of industrial control equipment, including equipment for the aerospace and defense industry; telecommunication equipment; computers and related products for business enterprises; medical devices, and testing and instrumentation products. It offers integrated design and manufacturing services. Its operations consist of over three principal areas: manufacturing and assembly operations, including printed circuit boards assemblies and subsystem assembly, box build and systems integration; precision technology manufacturing, which include precision machining, metal joining, assembly and functional testing, and specialized engineering services, and specialized engineering services, such as product design, printed circuit board layout, prototyping, automation and test development.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Benchmark Electronics (BHE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 57
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.5%
Total Debt to Equity 16.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BHE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BHE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2310 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Benchmark Electronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Benchmark Electronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BHE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BHE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Benchmark Electronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Benchmark Electronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BHE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $108 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BHE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Benchmark Electronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Benchmark Electronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BHE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BHE are equal to 11.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Benchmark Electronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BHE is equal to 19.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1365 million for Benchmark Electronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.549 million for Benchmark Electronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Benchmark Electronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Benchmark posts 3Q profit   [Oct-18-17 04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Qualcomm Invents New, Smart Single-Use Biometric Patches   [Sep-27-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Benchmark posts 2Q profit   [Jul-19-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Printed Circuit Board Stocks to Buy in 2017   [May-17-17 07:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Benchmark Electronics Announces Changes Among Officers   [May-16-17 06:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Houston-area electronics manufacturer to move corporate headquarters to Arizona   [Apr-20-17 03:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Benchmark posts 1Q profit   [Apr-19-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Benchmark posts 4Q profit   [07:21AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of BHE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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