Intrinsic value of Sotheby's - BID

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$53.41

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BID stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  805
  821
  840
  862
  886
  913
  942
  974
  1,009
  1,046
  1,087
  1,129
  1,175
  1,224
  1,276
  1,331
  1,389
  1,451
  1,516
  1,585
  1,658
  1,735
  1,816
  1,902
  1,992
  2,086
  2,186
  2,291
  2,402
  2,518
  2,641
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  405
  414
  424
  436
  449
  464
  479
  496
  514
  534
  550
  572
  596
  621
  648
  676
  706
  738
  772
  807
  845
  884
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,064
  1,115
  1,169
  1,226
  1,285
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  300
  308
  316
  323
  332
  340
  348
  357
  366
  375
  384
  394
  404
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  468
  480
  492
  504
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
Total operating expenses, $m
  683
  705
  722
  740
  759
  781
  804
  827
  853
  880
  909
  934
  966
  1,000
  1,035
  1,072
  1,111
  1,152
  1,195
  1,240
  1,287
  1,337
  1,388
  1,443
  1,500
  1,559
  1,621
  1,686
  1,754
  1,826
  1,900
Operating income, $m
  123
  116
  118
  122
  126
  132
  139
  147
  156
  166
  178
  195
  209
  224
  241
  259
  278
  299
  321
  345
  371
  398
  428
  459
  492
  528
  565
  605
  648
  693
  741
EBITDA, $m
  145
  142
  144
  148
  153
  160
  167
  176
  186
  197
  210
  224
  239
  255
  273
  292
  313
  335
  359
  385
  413
  442
  473
  507
  542
  580
  620
  663
  708
  756
  807
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  41
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  75
  83
  85
  87
  91
  96
  102
  108
  116
  124
  139
  149
  161
  174
  188
  203
  219
  236
  255
  275
  297
  320
  345
  372
  400
  430
  462
  497
  533
  572
Tax expense, $m
  26
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
Net income, $m
  74
  55
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  79
  85
  91
  101
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  160
  172
  186
  201
  217
  234
  252
  271
  292
  314
  338
  363
  389
  417

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  496
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,504
  2,048
  2,095
  2,149
  2,209
  2,276
  2,349
  2,429
  2,516
  2,609
  2,710
  2,817
  2,931
  3,053
  3,182
  3,319
  3,465
  3,619
  3,782
  3,954
  4,135
  4,327
  4,529
  4,742
  4,967
  5,203
  5,452
  5,714
  5,990
  6,280
  6,585
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,008
  2,048
  2,095
  2,149
  2,209
  2,276
  2,349
  2,429
  2,516
  2,609
  2,710
  2,817
  2,931
  3,053
  3,182
  3,319
  3,465
  3,619
  3,782
  3,954
  4,135
  4,327
  4,529
  4,742
  4,967
  5,203
  5,452
  5,714
  5,990
  6,280
  6,585
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
Average production assets, $m
  358
  365
  373
  383
  393
  405
  418
  433
  448
  465
  482
  501
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  673
  704
  736
  770
  806
  844
  884
  926
  971
  1,017
  1,066
  1,118
  1,172
Working capital, $m
  526
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
Total debt, $m
  1,171
  1,015
  1,057
  1,106
  1,160
  1,220
  1,287
  1,359
  1,436
  1,520
  1,611
  1,707
  1,810
  1,919
  2,036
  2,159
  2,290
  2,429
  2,575
  2,730
  2,894
  3,066
  3,248
  3,440
  3,642
  3,855
  4,079
  4,315
  4,563
  4,824
  5,099
Total liabilities, $m
  1,999
  1,843
  1,885
  1,934
  1,988
  2,048
  2,115
  2,187
  2,264
  2,348
  2,439
  2,535
  2,638
  2,747
  2,864
  2,987
  3,118
  3,257
  3,403
  3,558
  3,722
  3,894
  4,076
  4,268
  4,470
  4,683
  4,907
  5,143
  5,391
  5,652
  5,927
Total equity, $m
  505
  205
  209
  215
  221
  228
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
  362
  378
  395
  414
  433
  453
  474
  497
  520
  545
  571
  599
  628
  659
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,504
  2,048
  2,094
  2,149
  2,209
  2,276
  2,350
  2,430
  2,516
  2,609
  2,710
  2,817
  2,931
  3,052
  3,182
  3,319
  3,464
  3,619
  3,781
  3,953
  4,136
  4,327
  4,529
  4,742
  4,967
  5,203
  5,452
  5,714
  5,990
  6,280
  6,586
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.319
  4.960
  5.050
  5.150
  5.250
  5.360
  5.480
  5.590
  5.710
  5.830
  5.940
  6.060
  6.180
  6.290
  6.400
  6.510
  6.610
  6.710
  6.810
  6.910
  7.000
  7.090
  7.170
  7.250
  7.330
  7.410
  7.480
  7.550
  7.620
  7.680
  7.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.004
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  74
  55
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  79
  85
  91
  101
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  160
  172
  186
  201
  217
  234
  252
  271
  292
  314
  338
  363
  389
  417
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  214
  81
  86
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  116
  123
  130
  139
  148
  159
  170
  183
  196
  211
  226
  243
  260
  279
  300
  321
  344
  369
  395
  423
  452
  484
Change in working capital, $m
  56
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  158
  82
  86
  87
  90
  93
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  146
  156
  168
  180
  193
  207
  223
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
  340
  364
  390
  418
  447
  478
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -120
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
Free cash flow, $m
  38
  55
  57
  57
  58
  59
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  121
  131
  142
  154
  167
  181
  196
  212
  230
  248
  268
  289
  311
  335
  361
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  -149
  42
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -360
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -354
  -149
  42
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  116
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -351
  -94
  99
  105
  112
  119
  128
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  191
  204
  219
  235
  252
  270
  289
  309
  331
  354
  378
  404
  432
  461
  492
  525
  559
  596
  635
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  301
  -189
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  489
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  206
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  179
  192
  206
  221
  237
  254
  272
  292
  312
  334
  358
  383
  409
  437
  467
  498
  532
  567
  605
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  192
  81
  78
  76
  72
  69
  65
  61
  56
  52
  46
  41
  36
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Sotheby’s operates as an auctioneer of authenticated fine art, decorative art, jewelry, wine, and collectibles in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France, Switzerland, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Agency and Finance. The Agency segment accepts property on consignment; and matches buyers and sellers of authenticated fine art, decorative art, jewelry, wine, and collectibles through the auction or private sale process. It is also involved in the sale of artworks; and operation of an auction house for investment-quality automobiles. The Finance segment offers art-related financing services to various collectors and art dealers. This segment provides secured loans, including advances secured by consigned property to borrowers who are contractually committed to sell the property in the near term; and general purpose term loans secured by property not presently intended for sale. The company is also involved in the retail wine operations; licensing Sotheby’s International Realty and related trademarks; and licensing its Sotheby’s brand name for use in connection with the art auction business in Australia, and art education n services in the United States and the United Kingdom. Sotheby’s was founded in 1744 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sotheby's (BID)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.2
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 90.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 71
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 230.5%
Total Debt to Equity 231.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.5%
EBITDA Margin 20.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 12%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 26.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.9%
Payout Ratio 2.7%

BID stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BID stock intrinsic value calculation we used $805 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sotheby's. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sotheby's. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BID stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for BID is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sotheby's, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sotheby's.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BID stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $293 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BID stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sotheby's.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sotheby's. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BID stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BID are equal to 44.4%.

Life of production assets of 17.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sotheby's operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BID is equal to 4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $505 million for Sotheby's - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.555 million for Sotheby's is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sotheby's at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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Stock chart of BID Financial statements of BID Annual reports of BID
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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