Intrinsic value of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners - BIP

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$41.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.02
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,115
  1,892
  1,936
  1,985
  2,041
  2,103
  2,171
  2,245
  2,325
  2,411
  2,504
  2,603
  2,708
  2,821
  2,940
  3,067
  3,202
  3,344
  3,494
  3,653
  3,821
  3,998
  4,185
  4,382
  4,589
  4,808
  5,038
  5,280
  5,535
  5,803
  6,085
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  933
  954
  978
  1,006
  1,036
  1,069
  1,105
  1,144
  1,186
  1,232
  1,272
  1,324
  1,379
  1,437
  1,499
  1,565
  1,634
  1,708
  1,786
  1,868
  1,954
  2,045
  2,142
  2,243
  2,350
  2,462
  2,581
  2,705
  2,836
  2,974
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
  503
  516
  529
  542
  556
  569
  584
  598
  613
  629
  644
  660
  677
  694
  711
  729
  747
  766
  785
  805
  825
  845
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,676
  1,346
  1,377
  1,412
  1,451
  1,492
  1,536
  1,584
  1,635
  1,689
  1,748
  1,801
  1,866
  1,935
  2,006
  2,083
  2,163
  2,247
  2,337
  2,430
  2,528
  2,631
  2,739
  2,853
  2,972
  3,097
  3,228
  3,366
  3,510
  3,661
  3,819
Operating income, $m
  439
  546
  558
  573
  591
  611
  635
  661
  690
  722
  756
  802
  843
  887
  934
  984
  1,039
  1,096
  1,158
  1,224
  1,293
  1,367
  1,446
  1,529
  1,617
  1,711
  1,810
  1,915
  2,025
  2,142
  2,266
EBITDA, $m
  886
  938
  959
  984
  1,013
  1,046
  1,083
  1,124
  1,169
  1,219
  1,272
  1,330
  1,392
  1,459
  1,531
  1,607
  1,688
  1,775
  1,867
  1,965
  2,069
  2,179
  2,295
  2,418
  2,549
  2,687
  2,832
  2,986
  3,148
  3,320
  3,500
Interest expense (income), $m
  366
  332
  347
  361
  376
  394
  414
  436
  459
  485
  513
  542
  574
  607
  643
  682
  722
  765
  811
  859
  909
  963
  1,020
  1,079
  1,142
  1,209
  1,278
  1,352
  1,429
  1,511
  1,596
Earnings before tax, $m
  543
  215
  212
  213
  214
  217
  221
  225
  230
  237
  244
  260
  269
  279
  290
  303
  316
  331
  347
  365
  384
  404
  426
  450
  475
  502
  531
  563
  596
  631
  669
Tax expense, $m
  15
  58
  57
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  66
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  161
  170
  181
Net income, $m
  373
  157
  155
  155
  157
  158
  161
  164
  168
  173
  178
  190
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  347
  367
  388
  411
  435
  461
  489

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  837
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  21,275
  17,519
  17,922
  18,383
  18,900
  19,473
  20,102
  20,786
  21,527
  22,326
  23,183
  24,099
  25,077
  26,119
  27,226
  28,400
  29,645
  30,962
  32,355
  33,827
  35,381
  37,022
  38,751
  40,574
  42,495
  44,518
  46,648
  48,890
  51,249
  53,731
  56,342
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  20,438
  17,519
  17,922
  18,383
  18,900
  19,473
  20,102
  20,786
  21,527
  22,326
  23,183
  24,099
  25,077
  26,119
  27,226
  28,400
  29,645
  30,962
  32,355
  33,827
  35,381
  37,022
  38,751
  40,574
  42,495
  44,518
  46,648
  48,890
  51,249
  53,731
  56,342
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
Average production assets, $m
  12,025
  11,519
  11,784
  12,087
  12,427
  12,804
  13,217
  13,667
  14,154
  14,679
  15,243
  15,845
  16,488
  17,173
  17,901
  18,673
  19,491
  20,358
  21,274
  22,242
  23,263
  24,342
  25,479
  26,678
  27,941
  29,271
  30,671
  32,145
  33,697
  35,328
  37,045
Working capital, $m
  117
  288
  294
  302
  310
  320
  330
  341
  353
  367
  381
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  487
  508
  531
  555
  581
  608
  636
  666
  698
  731
  766
  803
  841
  882
  925
Total debt, $m
  8,367
  7,702
  8,011
  8,365
  8,761
  9,201
  9,683
  10,208
  10,777
  11,389
  12,046
  12,749
  13,499
  14,298
  15,147
  16,048
  17,002
  18,013
  19,081
  20,210
  21,403
  22,660
  23,987
  25,385
  26,859
  28,410
  30,044
  31,764
  33,573
  35,477
  37,479
Total liabilities, $m
  16,262
  13,437
  13,746
  14,100
  14,496
  14,936
  15,418
  15,943
  16,512
  17,124
  17,781
  18,484
  19,234
  20,033
  20,882
  21,783
  22,737
  23,748
  24,816
  25,945
  27,138
  28,395
  29,722
  31,120
  32,594
  34,145
  35,779
  37,499
  39,308
  41,212
  43,214
Total equity, $m
  5,013
  4,082
  4,176
  4,283
  4,404
  4,537
  4,684
  4,843
  5,016
  5,202
  5,402
  5,615
  5,843
  6,086
  6,344
  6,617
  6,907
  7,214
  7,539
  7,882
  8,244
  8,626
  9,029
  9,454
  9,901
  10,373
  10,869
  11,391
  11,941
  12,519
  13,128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21,275
  17,519
  17,922
  18,383
  18,900
  19,473
  20,102
  20,786
  21,528
  22,326
  23,183
  24,099
  25,077
  26,119
  27,226
  28,400
  29,644
  30,962
  32,355
  33,827
  35,382
  37,021
  38,751
  40,574
  42,495
  44,518
  46,648
  48,890
  51,249
  53,731
  56,342
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.669
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.030
  2.070
  2.110
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.270
  2.310
  2.350
  2.390
  2.430
  2.460
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
  2.600
  2.630
  2.660
  2.690
  2.710
  2.740
  2.760
  2.790
  2.810
  2.830
  2.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.204
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  373
  157
  155
  155
  157
  158
  161
  164
  168
  173
  178
  190
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  347
  367
  388
  411
  435
  461
  489
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  447
  392
  401
  411
  422
  435
  448
  463
  480
  497
  516
  528
  550
  572
  597
  622
  650
  679
  709
  741
  775
  811
  849
  889
  931
  976
  1,022
  1,072
  1,123
  1,178
  1,235
Funds from operations, $m
  798
  549
  555
  566
  579
  593
  610
  628
  648
  670
  694
  718
  746
  776
  809
  844
  881
  920
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,160
  1,218
  1,278
  1,342
  1,410
  1,482
  1,558
  1,638
  1,723
Change in working capital, $m
  45
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Cash from operations, $m
  753
  177
  549
  558
  570
  584
  599
  617
  636
  657
  680
  703
  730
  759
  791
  824
  860
  899
  940
  984
  1,030
  1,080
  1,132
  1,188
  1,247
  1,309
  1,375
  1,445
  1,519
  1,598
  1,680
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -376
  -384
  -393
  -403
  -414
  -427
  -441
  -456
  -472
  -489
  -508
  -528
  -550
  -572
  -597
  -622
  -650
  -679
  -709
  -741
  -775
  -811
  -849
  -889
  -931
  -976
  -1,022
  -1,072
  -1,123
  -1,178
New CAPEX, $m
  -690
  -226
  -265
  -303
  -340
  -377
  -413
  -450
  -487
  -525
  -563
  -603
  -643
  -685
  -728
  -772
  -818
  -866
  -916
  -968
  -1,022
  -1,078
  -1,137
  -1,199
  -1,263
  -1,330
  -1,400
  -1,474
  -1,551
  -1,632
  -1,717
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,058
  -602
  -649
  -696
  -743
  -791
  -840
  -891
  -943
  -997
  -1,052
  -1,111
  -1,171
  -1,235
  -1,300
  -1,369
  -1,440
  -1,516
  -1,595
  -1,677
  -1,763
  -1,853
  -1,948
  -2,048
  -2,152
  -2,261
  -2,376
  -2,496
  -2,623
  -2,755
  -2,895
Free cash flow, $m
  -305
  -425
  -100
  -137
  -173
  -207
  -241
  -274
  -307
  -340
  -373
  -408
  -441
  -475
  -510
  -545
  -580
  -617
  -655
  -693
  -733
  -774
  -817
  -860
  -906
  -952
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,103
  -1,157
  -1,214
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  770
  329
  309
  353
  397
  439
  482
  525
  568
  612
  657
  703
  750
  799
  849
  901
  955
  1,010
  1,069
  1,129
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,398
  1,473
  1,552
  1,634
  1,720
  1,810
  1,904
  2,002
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  180
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,443
  456
  309
  353
  397
  439
  482
  525
  568
  612
  657
  703
  750
  799
  849
  901
  955
  1,010
  1,069
  1,129
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,398
  1,473
  1,552
  1,634
  1,720
  1,810
  1,904
  2,002
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,131
  -95
  209
  216
  224
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  295
  309
  324
  339
  356
  374
  393
  414
  436
  459
  484
  510
  538
  568
  599
  633
  668
  706
  746
  789
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -963
  -93
  -94
  -107
  -120
  -134
  -146
  -160
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -243
  -258
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -325
  -343
  -362
  -382
  -403
  -425
  -448
  -471
  -496
  -522
  -550
  -578
  -608
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  115
  109
  103
  99
  95
  91
  89
  86
  85
  82
  81
  81
  81
  82
  84
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  120
  128
  137
  146
  157
  168
  180
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  94
  80
  67
  56
  46
  38
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7
  98.7

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. engages in utility, transport, energy, and communications infrastructure businesses. The company’s Utilities segment operates a port facility that exports metallurgical and thermal coal mined in the central Bowen Basin region of Queensland, Australia; approximately 11,000 kilometers of transmission lines in North and South America; and approximately 2.6 million electricity and natural gas connections in the United Kingdom and Colombia. Its Transport segment provides transportation, storage, and handling services for freight, bulk commodities, and passengers through a network of 5,100 kilometers of track and related infrastructure in southwest region of Western Australia; approximately 4,800 kilometers of rail in Brazil; approximately 3,500 kilometers of motorways in Brazil and Chile; and 33 port terminals in North America, the United Kingdom, and Europe. The company’s Energy segment offers energy transportation, distribution, and storage services through 15,000 kilometers of transmission pipelines; and 600 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage in the United States and Canada, as well as serves approximately 40,000 gas distribution customers in the United Kingdom. This segment also provides heating, cooling, and energy solutions; and distributed natural gas, water, and sewage services in Australia and North America. Its Communications Infrastructure segment offers services and critical infrastructure to the media broadcasting and telecom sectors. This segment has approximately 7,000 multi-purpose towers and active rooftop sites; and 5,000 kilometers of fiber backbone located in France. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners Limited serves as the general partner of the company. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. was founded in 2007 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 169.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 155.5%
Total Debt to Equity 166.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.3%
EBITDA Margin 64.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.8%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21%
Net Profit Margin 17.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Effective Tax Rate 2.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Payout Ratio 145.8%

BIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1855 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for BIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 49.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $403 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BIP are equal to 608.8%.

Life of production assets of 30.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brookfield Infrastructure Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BIP is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4050 million for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 240 million for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.9 billion.


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Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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