Intrinsic value of Buckle - BKE

Previous Close

$21.70

  Intrinsic Value

$38.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+77%

Previous close

$21.70

 
Intrinsic value

$38.42

 
Up/down potential

+77%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of BKE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  975
  995
  1,017
  1,044
  1,073
  1,105
  1,141
  1,180
  1,222
  1,267
  1,316
  1,368
  1,424
  1,483
  1,545
  1,612
  1,683
  1,758
  1,837
  1,920
  2,008
  2,102
  2,200
  2,303
  2,412
  2,527
  2,648
  2,775
  2,909
  3,050
  3,198
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  466
  477
  489
  503
  518
  535
  553
  573
  594
  617
  642
  668
  695
  725
  756
  789
  824
  861
  901
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
  1,364
  1,430
  1,500
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  383
  393
  403
  413
  423
  434
  445
  456
  467
  479
  491
  503
  516
  528
  542
  555
  569
  583
  598
  613
  628
  644
  660
  676
  693
  711
  728
  747
  765
  784
Total operating expenses, $m
  822
  849
  870
  892
  916
  941
  969
  998
  1,029
  1,061
  1,096
  1,133
  1,171
  1,211
  1,253
  1,298
  1,344
  1,393
  1,444
  1,499
  1,555
  1,614
  1,676
  1,740
  1,807
  1,878
  1,953
  2,030
  2,111
  2,195
  2,284
Operating income, $m
  153
  145
  147
  151
  157
  164
  172
  182
  193
  206
  220
  236
  253
  272
  292
  314
  338
  364
  392
  422
  454
  488
  524
  563
  604
  649
  695
  745
  798
  854
  914
EBITDA, $m
  186
  178
  182
  186
  193
  201
  211
  222
  234
  249
  264
  282
  301
  322
  344
  369
  395
  423
  454
  486
  521
  558
  598
  641
  686
  734
  784
  839
  896
  957
  1,021
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  156
  145
  147
  151
  157
  163
  172
  181
  192
  205
  218
  234
  251
  269
  289
  311
  335
  360
  388
  417
  449
  482
  518
  557
  597
  641
  687
  736
  788
  844
  903
Tax expense, $m
  58
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  228
  244
Net income, $m
  98
  106
  107
  110
  114
  119
  125
  132
  140
  149
  159
  171
  183
  197
  211
  227
  245
  263
  283
  305
  327
  352
  378
  406
  436
  468
  502
  537
  576
  616
  659

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  247
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  580
  340
  347
  356
  366
  378
  390
  403
  417
  433
  449
  467
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  904
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,092
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  333
  340
  347
  356
  366
  378
  390
  403
  417
  433
  449
  467
  486
  506
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  904
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,092
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.928
  2.926
  2.931
  2.933
  2.932
  2.923
  2.926
  2.928
  2.930
  2.926
  2.931
  2.929
  2.930
  2.931
  2.926
  2.926
  2.927
  2.930
  2.930
  2.927
  2.927
  2.928
  2.929
  2.926
  2.927
  2.928
  2.929
  2.927
  2.927
  2.927
  2.929
Average production assets, $m
  171
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  200
  206
  214
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  308
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  486
  509
  534
  560
Working capital, $m
  287
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  10
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  44
  52
  60
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  131
  144
  158
  172
  187
  203
  219
  237
  255
  275
  295
  317
  339
Total liabilities, $m
  149
  152
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  187
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  368
  386
  404
  424
  444
  466
  488
Total equity, $m
  431
  188
  192
  197
  203
  209
  216
  223
  231
  239
  249
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  580
  340
  347
  356
  367
  378
  390
  403
  418
  432
  450
  467
  486
  506
  528
  550
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,042
  1,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553
  0.553

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  98
  106
  107
  110
  114
  119
  125
  132
  140
  149
  159
  171
  183
  197
  211
  227
  245
  263
  283
  305
  327
  352
  378
  406
  436
  468
  502
  537
  576
  616
  659
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
Funds from operations, $m
  163
  139
  142
  145
  150
  156
  164
  172
  181
  192
  204
  217
  231
  247
  263
  282
  301
  322
  345
  369
  395
  423
  452
  484
  517
  553
  591
  631
  673
  719
  767
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  149
  138
  141
  144
  149
  155
  162
  170
  180
  190
  202
  215
  229
  244
  261
  279
  298
  319
  342
  366
  391
  419
  448
  480
  513
  548
  586
  626
  668
  713
  761
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -123
  -129
Free cash flow, $m
  120
  102
  103
  106
  109
  113
  119
  125
  133
  141
  151
  161
  173
  186
  200
  215
  232
  249
  269
  289
  311
  335
  360
  387
  416
  447
  480
  514
  551
  590
  632
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  105
  107
  110
  113
  118
  124
  131
  139
  148
  158
  169
  181
  195
  209
  225
  242
  261
  281
  302
  325
  349
  375
  403
  433
  464
  498
  534
  572
  612
  655
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  247
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  348
  102
  105
  108
  112
  117
  124
  131
  139
  149
  159
  171
  184
  198
  213
  229
  247
  266
  286
  308
  332
  357
  384
  412
  443
  475
  510
  546
  585
  627
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  334
  94
  91
  89
  87
  85
  84
  82
  80
  78
  76
  73
  70
  66
  62
  58
  54
  49
  44
  39
  34
  30
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
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The Buckle, Inc. is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men and women. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 467 retail stores in 44 states throughout the United States under the names Buckle and The Buckle. The Company markets a selection of brand name casual apparel, including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories and footwear. The Company provides customer services, such as free hemming, free gift-wrapping, easy layaways, the Buckle private label credit card, and a guest loyalty program. The Company offers denims from brands, such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, Big Star Vintage, Buffalo Jeans, KanCan, Flying Monkey and Levi's. Its other brands include Hurley, Billabong, Affliction, American Fighter, Fast & Furious, Oakley, Fox, Puma, Obey, RVCA, Salvage, 7 Diamonds, Nixon, Amuse Society, Free People, White Crow, Corral, Reef, Kustom, Timberland, UGG, TOMS, SAXX, Stance, Lokai, Ray-Ban, and Fossil.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Buckle (BKE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.4%
Return On Total Capital 23.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Return On Equity 23.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Operating Margin 15.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 86.7%

BKE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BKE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $975 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Buckle. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Buckle. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BKE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BKE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Buckle, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Buckle.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BKE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $374 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BKE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Buckle.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Buckle. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BKE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BKE are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Buckle operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BKE is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $431 million for Buckle - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.845 million for Buckle is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Buckle at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
TLYS Tilly's 13.34 10.91  hold
ANF Abercrombie&Fi 17.04 8.34  sell
AEO American Eagle 15.24 20.12  buy
GPS Gap 29.93 42.66  str.buy
URBN Urban Outfitte 28.27 31.37  buy
JWN Nordstrom 41.44 35.40  hold
ZUMZ Zumiez 19.35 19.40  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Buckle, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Buckle posts 3Q profit   [07:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports October 2017 Net Sales   [Nov-02-17 06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports September 2017 Net Sales   [Oct-05-17 06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-19-17 06:55AM  Business Wire]
▶ After-hours buzz: JWN, M, HD & more   [Sep-12-17 05:16PM  CNBC]
▶ 5 Dicey Dividends I'd Sell Today   [Aug-31-17 08:12AM  Forbes]
▶ Buckle posts 2Q profit   [Aug-17-17 08:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trade of the Day: Buckle Inc (BKE)   [08:56AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports July 2017 Net Sales   [Aug-03-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From July 25   [Jul-25-17 04:00PM  Benzinga]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports June 2017 Net Sales   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Bear Of The Day: Buckle (BKE)   [06:45AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Buckle, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 02:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Buckle, Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 01:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports May 2017 Net Sales   [Jun-01-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports Quarterly Dividend   [May-31-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Fashion Companies Gain on Not So Bad Earnings   [May-18-17 01:55PM  Investopedia]
▶ Buckle posts 1Q profit   [07:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:BKE) : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 01:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Buckle, Inc. Reports April 2017 Net Sales   [May-04-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ These 3 Dividend Stocks Could Slash Their Payouts   [Apr-20-17 10:47AM  Motley Fool]
▶ March Same-Store Sales Deliver Little Good News   [Apr-06-17 07:55AM  24/7 Wall St.]
Financial statements of BKE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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