Intrinsic value of TopBuild - BLD

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$49.51

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$49.51

 
Intrinsic value

$87.58

 
Up/down potential

+77%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.79
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,743
  1,816
  1,894
  1,976
  2,064
  2,156
  2,254
  2,357
  2,466
  2,580
  2,701
  2,829
  2,963
  3,105
  3,254
  3,410
  3,575
  3,749
  3,931
  4,123
  4,325
  4,537
  4,760
  4,994
  5,240
  5,499
  5,770
  6,056
  6,356
  6,671
  7,002
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,263
  1,313
  1,366
  1,421
  1,480
  1,542
  1,608
  1,678
  1,751
  1,828
  1,805
  1,891
  1,981
  2,076
  2,176
  2,281
  2,392
  2,508
  2,631
  2,759
  2,895
  3,037
  3,186
  3,343
  3,508
  3,682
  3,864
  4,055
  4,256
  4,468
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  424
  435
  446
  457
  468
  480
  492
  504
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  678
  695
  713
  731
  749
  768
  787
  806
  827
  847
  868
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,621
  1,687
  1,748
  1,812
  1,878
  1,948
  2,022
  2,100
  2,182
  2,268
  2,358
  2,348
  2,448
  2,552
  2,661
  2,776
  2,896
  3,022
  3,154
  3,293
  3,437
  3,590
  3,750
  3,917
  4,092
  4,276
  4,469
  4,670
  4,882
  5,103
  5,336
Operating income, $m
  122
  129
  146
  165
  185
  207
  231
  256
  283
  312
  343
  481
  516
  553
  593
  635
  679
  727
  777
  830
  887
  947
  1,010
  1,077
  1,148
  1,223
  1,302
  1,386
  1,474
  1,567
  1,666
EBITDA, $m
  134
  236
  254
  273
  294
  316
  340
  365
  393
  422
  453
  486
  521
  559
  599
  641
  686
  734
  784
  838
  895
  955
  1,019
  1,086
  1,157
  1,233
  1,312
  1,397
  1,486
  1,580
  1,679
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  116
  123
  139
  157
  177
  197
  220
  244
  269
  297
  326
  462
  495
  530
  568
  608
  651
  696
  744
  794
  848
  905
  965
  1,029
  1,097
  1,168
  1,244
  1,324
  1,408
  1,497
  1,591
Tax expense, $m
  43
  33
  38
  42
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  125
  134
  143
  153
  164
  176
  188
  201
  214
  229
  244
  261
  278
  296
  315
  336
  357
  380
  404
  430
Net income, $m
  73
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  160
  178
  197
  217
  238
  337
  361
  387
  415
  444
  475
  508
  543
  580
  619
  661
  705
  751
  801
  853
  908
  966
  1,028
  1,093
  1,162

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,690
  1,622
  1,691
  1,765
  1,843
  1,925
  2,012
  2,104
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,646
  2,772
  2,905
  3,045
  3,192
  3,347
  3,510
  3,681
  3,861
  4,051
  4,250
  4,459
  4,679
  4,909
  5,152
  5,407
  5,675
  5,956
  6,252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,556
  1,622
  1,691
  1,765
  1,843
  1,925
  2,012
  2,104
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,646
  2,772
  2,905
  3,045
  3,192
  3,347
  3,510
  3,681
  3,861
  4,051
  4,250
  4,459
  4,679
  4,909
  5,152
  5,407
  5,675
  5,956
  6,252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
Average production assets, $m
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
  367
  385
Working capital, $m
  201
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
Total debt, $m
  179
  188
  220
  253
  287
  324
  363
  405
  448
  494
  543
  594
  647
  704
  763
  826
  892
  961
  1,034
  1,111
  1,192
  1,277
  1,366
  1,460
  1,558
  1,661
  1,770
  1,884
  2,004
  2,130
  2,263
Total liabilities, $m
  718
  726
  758
  791
  825
  862
  901
  943
  986
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,185
  1,242
  1,301
  1,364
  1,430
  1,499
  1,572
  1,649
  1,730
  1,815
  1,904
  1,998
  2,096
  2,199
  2,308
  2,422
  2,542
  2,668
  2,801
Total equity, $m
  973
  895
  933
  974
  1,017
  1,063
  1,111
  1,162
  1,215
  1,272
  1,331
  1,394
  1,460
  1,530
  1,604
  1,681
  1,762
  1,848
  1,937
  2,032
  2,131
  2,236
  2,346
  2,461
  2,583
  2,710
  2,844
  2,985
  3,133
  3,288
  3,451
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,691
  1,621
  1,691
  1,765
  1,842
  1,925
  2,012
  2,105
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,645
  2,772
  2,905
  3,045
  3,192
  3,347
  3,509
  3,681
  3,861
  4,051
  4,250
  4,459
  4,679
  4,909
  5,152
  5,407
  5,675
  5,956
  6,252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.184
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.539
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  160
  178
  197
  217
  238
  337
  361
  387
  415
  444
  475
  508
  543
  580
  619
  661
  705
  751
  801
  853
  908
  966
  1,028
  1,093
  1,162
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  108
  108
  108
  108
  108
  109
  109
  109
  109
  109
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  198
  210
  223
  237
  253
  269
  287
  306
  326
  347
  342
  367
  393
  421
  450
  481
  515
  550
  587
  627
  669
  713
  760
  810
  863
  919
  977
  1,040
  1,105
  1,175
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  77
  194
  206
  219
  233
  248
  264
  282
  300
  320
  341
  336
  360
  386
  413
  442
  473
  506
  541
  578
  617
  658
  702
  749
  798
  850
  905
  963
  1,025
  1,089
  1,158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  187
  198
  211
  224
  239
  255
  272
  290
  309
  330
  324
  347
  373
  399
  428
  458
  490
  524
  560
  598
  639
  682
  727
  775
  826
  880
  937
  997
  1,060
  1,128
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -38
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  216
  229
  244
  259
  276
  294
  313
  333
  355
  378
  375
  401
  429
  459
  490
  524
  559
  597
  637
  679
  724
  771
  821
  874
  930
  989
  1,051
  1,117
  1,187
  1,260
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  294
  191
  203
  216
  231
  246
  262
  280
  299
  319
  312
  335
  359
  385
  413
  443
  474
  507
  542
  580
  619
  661
  705
  752
  802
  855
  910
  969
  1,031
  1,097
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  282
  175
  177
  178
  179
  178
  177
  175
  172
  167
  148
  143
  137
  129
  121
  112
  103
  93
  83
  74
  64
  55
  46
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TopBuild Corp. engages in the installation, distribution, and sale of insulation and other building products to the United States construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Distribution. It offers rain gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, fireproofing and firestopping products, shower enclosures, closet shelves, accessories, and other building products; and residential insulation services. The company also provides various services and tools that are designed to assist builders in applying the principles of building science to new home construction, which includes pre-construction plan reviews, various inspection services, and diagnostic testing; and home energy rating services. It serves single-family homebuilders, local/single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. TopBuild Corp. has approximately 180 installation branches located in 44 states, and 70 distribution centers in 35 states. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TopBuild (BLD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 16.3%
Total Debt to Equity 18.4%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

BLD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1743 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TopBuild. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TopBuild. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BLD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TopBuild, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TopBuild.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $414 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TopBuild.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TopBuild. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLD are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 95 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TopBuild operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLD is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $973 million for TopBuild - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.085 million for TopBuild is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TopBuild at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ TopBuild Acquires Superior Insulation Products   [Apr-21-17 06:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Jacobs (JEC) Clinches Decomplexing Project from ONEgas   [Mar-30-17 09:23AM  Investopedia]
▶ TopBuild Acquires Capital Insulation   [06:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ TopBuild: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [Mar-09-17 06:25AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Cramer Remix: Dont abandon oil stocksdo this instead   [Mar-08-17 07:25PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ TopBuild Names President of Service Partners   [Feb-01-17 04:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ TopBuild Acquires Midwest Fireproofing   [Jan-17-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Should You Avoid TopBuild Corp (BLD)?   [Nov-30-16 04:59AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ TopBuild Acquires Valley Insulation   [Aug-16-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Zelman: Housing Hazards and Opportunities   [Jun-04-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of BLD Financial statements of BLD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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