Intrinsic value of BioLife Solutions - BLFS

Previous Close

$5.64

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$5.64

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  33.33
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  8
  12
  17
  25
  34
  46
  60
  78
  98
  122
  150
  181
  215
  253
  295
  340
  388
  440
  495
  553
  615
  679
  747
  817
  890
  967
  1,046
  1,129
  1,215
  1,305
  1,397
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  12
  17
  25
  34
  46
  60
  78
  98
  122
  150
  181
  215
  253
  295
  340
  388
  440
  495
  553
  615
  679
  747
  817
  890
  967
  1,046
  1,129
  1,215
  1,305
  1,397
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  13
  17
  22
  30
  40
  52
  66
  84
  104
  128
  156
  188
  222
  260
  302
  347
  395
  448
  503
  561
  623
  687
  756
  826
  899
  976
  1,056
  1,139
  1,225
  1,315
  1,407
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
EBITDA, $m
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -7
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8
  10
  15
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  107
  131
  158
  188
  222
  258
  297
  340
  385
  433
  484
  538
  594
  653
  715
  779
  846
  916
  988
  1,063
  1,141
  1,223
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7
  10
  15
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  107
  131
  158
  188
  222
  258
  297
  340
  385
  433
  484
  538
  594
  653
  715
  779
  846
  916
  988
  1,063
  1,141
  1,223
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.143
  1.200
  1.133
  1.136
  1.133
  1.150
  1.132
  1.147
  1.140
  1.140
  1.145
  1.146
  1.144
  1.140
  1.143
  1.145
  1.141
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.144
  1.143
  1.142
  1.143
  1.142
  1.143
  1.143
  1.144
  1.142
Average production assets, $m
  4
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  43
  54
  66
  79
  94
  111
  129
  149
  170
  193
  217
  242
  269
  297
  327
  358
  390
  423
  458
  495
  532
  571
  612
Working capital, $m
  4
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  23
  29
  37
  46
  56
  68
  81
  95
  111
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  231
  255
  280
  306
  334
  363
  392
  423
  456
  489
  524
Total debt, $m
  3
  5
  9
  13
  19
  27
  36
  47
  59
  74
  91
  111
  132
  156
  182
  210
  241
  273
  307
  344
  382
  422
  464
  508
  554
  602
  652
  703
  757
  813
  871
Total liabilities, $m
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  76
  93
  113
  134
  158
  184
  212
  243
  275
  309
  346
  384
  424
  466
  510
  556
  604
  654
  705
  759
  815
  873
Total equity, $m
  3
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  25
  31
  37
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  97
  110
  124
  138
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  304
  326
  350
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8
  10
  15
  21
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  107
  130
  158
  188
  221
  258
  297
  340
  385
  433
  484
  538
  594
  653
  714
  779
  846
  916
  988
  1,063
  1,141
  1,223
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.000
  1.830
  2.040
  2.170
  2.260
  2.320
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.450
  2.460
  2.460
  2.470
  2.470
  2.480
  2.480
  2.480
  2.480
  2.480
  2.480
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  8
  10
  13
  14
  16
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  76.2
  62.1
  53.0
  46.7
  42.1
  38.7
  35.9
  33.7
  31.8
  30.3
  28.9
  27.7
  26.7
  25.7
  24.9
  24.1
  23.4
  22.8
  22.2
  21.6
  21.1
  20.6
  20.2
  19.7
  19.3
  18.9
  18.5
  18.2
  17.8
  17.5

BioLife Solutions, Inc. (BioLife) is engaged in the developing, manufacturing and marketing a portfolio of biopreservation tools and services for cells, tissues and organs, including clinical grade cell and tissue hypothermic storage and cryopreservation freeze media and a related cloud hosted biologistics cold chain management application for shippers. The Company's product offerings include hypothermic storage and cryopreservation freeze media products for cells, tissues, and organs; generic blood stem cell freezing and cell thawing media products; custom product formulation and custom packaging services; cold chain logistics services incorporating precision thermal packaging products and cloud-hosted Web applications, and contract aseptic manufacturing formulation, fill and finish services of liquid media products. Its products include HypoThermosol FRS, CryoStor, BloodStor, Cell Thawing Media, PrepaStor and biologistex cold-chain management service.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.4
Price to Sales 9.1
Price to Book 24.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 33.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 100%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -70%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.4%
Return On Total Capital -93.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.8%
Return On Equity -116.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 148.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin -100%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Operating Margin -62.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Net Profit Margin -87.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -68.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BLFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioLife Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BioLife Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for BLFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioLife Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioLife Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for BioLife Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioLife Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLFS are equal to 43.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioLife Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLFS is equal to 37.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3 million for BioLife Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.229 million for BioLife Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioLife Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy BioLife Solutions Inc (BLFS) Now?   [Oct-18-17 02:31PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ BioLife Solutions Modifies Existing Credit Facility   [Jul-05-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BioLife Solutions Announces Q1 2017 Financial Results   [May-11-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ BioLife Solutions Announces 2016 Revenue Growth of 28%   [Jan-12-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BioLife Solutions Amends Existing Credit Facility   [Jan-10-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BioLife Solutions Restructures biologistex Joint Venture   [Jan-03-17 04:17PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Biolife Solutions posts record Q3 revenue   [Nov-14-16 04:59PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Why Traders Are Clamoring for These 5 Stocks This Morning   [Jul-11-16 11:07AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of BLFS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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