Intrinsic value of Blackbaud - BLKB

Previous Close

$101.43

  Intrinsic Value

$33.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-67%

Previous close

$101.43

 
Intrinsic value

$33.40

 
Up/down potential

-67%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BLKB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.58
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  731
  783
  837
  893
  951
  1,012
  1,075
  1,141
  1,209
  1,281
  1,355
  1,433
  1,514
  1,599
  1,687
  1,780
  1,876
  1,977
  2,083
  2,194
  2,310
  2,431
  2,558
  2,691
  2,831
  2,977
  3,131
  3,291
  3,460
  3,637
  3,822
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  654
  696
  739
  785
  832
  881
  933
  986
  1,042
  1,100
  1,116
  1,179
  1,245
  1,314
  1,386
  1,462
  1,540
  1,623
  1,709
  1,799
  1,894
  1,993
  2,097
  2,206
  2,320
  2,439
  2,564
  2,696
  2,833
  2,978
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
Total operating expenses, $m
  669
  712
  756
  800
  848
  896
  947
  1,001
  1,055
  1,113
  1,173
  1,191
  1,256
  1,324
  1,395
  1,469
  1,547
  1,627
  1,712
  1,800
  1,892
  1,990
  2,091
  2,198
  2,309
  2,426
  2,547
  2,675
  2,810
  2,950
  3,098
Operating income, $m
  62
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  140
  154
  168
  183
  242
  258
  275
  292
  311
  330
  350
  371
  394
  417
  441
  467
  494
  522
  552
  583
  616
  651
  687
  725
EBITDA, $m
  132
  147
  159
  173
  186
  201
  216
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  340
  361
  384
  407
  431
  457
  484
  512
  541
  572
  605
  639
  674
  712
  751
  793
  836
  882
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  133
  142
  150
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  51
  59
  67
  75
  83
  92
  102
  111
  121
  132
  143
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  369
  390
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  537
  566
Tax expense, $m
  9
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  153
Net income, $m
  42
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  104
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  205
  216
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,310
  1,386
  1,481
  1,580
  1,684
  1,791
  1,903
  2,019
  2,140
  2,267
  2,398
  2,536
  2,679
  2,829
  2,986
  3,150
  3,321
  3,500
  3,687
  3,883
  4,088
  4,303
  4,528
  4,764
  5,011
  5,270
  5,541
  5,826
  6,124
  6,437
  6,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,293
  1,386
  1,481
  1,580
  1,684
  1,791
  1,903
  2,019
  2,140
  2,267
  2,398
  2,536
  2,679
  2,829
  2,986
  3,150
  3,321
  3,500
  3,687
  3,883
  4,088
  4,303
  4,528
  4,764
  5,011
  5,270
  5,541
  5,826
  6,124
  6,437
  6,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
Average production assets, $m
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  453
  482
  511
  542
  574
  607
  642
  678
  716
  756
  797
  841
  886
  933
  983
  1,035
  1,089
  1,146
  1,206
  1,268
  1,334
  1,403
  1,475
  1,550
  1,629
  1,712
Working capital, $m
  -172
  -198
  -212
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -383
  -404
  -427
  -450
  -475
  -500
  -527
  -555
  -584
  -615
  -647
  -681
  -716
  -753
  -792
  -833
  -875
  -920
  -967
Total debt, $m
  342
  413
  492
  573
  657
  745
  836
  932
  1,031
  1,134
  1,242
  1,354
  1,472
  1,594
  1,722
  1,856
  1,996
  2,143
  2,296
  2,456
  2,624
  2,800
  2,984
  3,177
  3,379
  3,590
  3,813
  4,045
  4,289
  4,545
  4,814
Total liabilities, $m
  1,063
  1,133
  1,212
  1,293
  1,377
  1,465
  1,556
  1,652
  1,751
  1,854
  1,962
  2,074
  2,192
  2,314
  2,442
  2,576
  2,716
  2,863
  3,016
  3,176
  3,344
  3,520
  3,704
  3,897
  4,099
  4,310
  4,533
  4,765
  5,009
  5,265
  5,534
Total equity, $m
  248
  252
  270
  288
  306
  326
  346
  367
  390
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  543
  573
  604
  637
  671
  707
  744
  783
  824
  867
  912
  959
  1,008
  1,060
  1,115
  1,172
  1,231
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,311
  1,385
  1,482
  1,581
  1,683
  1,791
  1,902
  2,019
  2,141
  2,267
  2,399
  2,536
  2,680
  2,829
  2,985
  3,149
  3,320
  3,500
  3,687
  3,883
  4,088
  4,303
  4,528
  4,764
  5,011
  5,269
  5,541
  5,825
  6,124
  6,437
  6,765
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.379
  1.640
  1.820
  1.990
  2.140
  2.290
  2.420
  2.540
  2.650
  2.750
  2.850
  2.930
  3.020
  3.100
  3.170
  3.240
  3.300
  3.360
  3.420
  3.480
  3.530
  3.580
  3.620
  3.660
  3.700
  3.740
  3.780
  3.820
  3.850
  3.880
  3.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.179
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  104
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  205
  216
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  96
  99
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
Funds from operations, $m
  156
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  375
  395
  416
  439
  463
  488
  514
  541
  570
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  329
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  502
  528
  556
  586
  617
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -47
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
Free cash flow, $m
  107
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  328
  346
  365
  384
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -66
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -82
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
  372
  392
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  532
  560
  590
  621
  653
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  150
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
  509
  535
  564
  593
Discount rate, %
 
  6.40
  6.72
  7.06
  7.41
  7.78
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.93
  10.42
  10.95
  11.49
  12.07
  12.67
  13.31
  13.97
  14.67
  15.40
  16.17
  16.98
  17.83
  18.72
  19.66
  20.64
  21.67
  22.76
  23.89
  25.09
  26.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  141
  127
  125
  121
  117
  112
  106
  100
  93
  86
  74
  67
  60
  52
  46
  39
  33
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Blackbaud, Inc. is a cloud software company. The Company offers a range of cloud and on-premise solutions, as well as a resource network that empowers and connects organizations of all sizes. Its segments include the General Markets Business Unit (the GMBU), the Enterprise Customer Business Unit (the ECBU) and the International Business Unit (the IBU). The GMBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all emerging and mid-sized prospects and customers in North America. The ECBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all large and/or strategic prospects and customers in North America. The IBU is focused on marketing, sales, delivery and support to all prospects and customers outside of North America. It operates in four geographic regions: the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia. Its portfolio of software and services supports nonprofit fundraising and relationship management, digital marketing, advocacy, accounting, payments and analytics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blackbaud (BLKB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 114.7
Price to Sales 6.6
Price to Book 19.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 29.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 136.3%
Total Debt to Equity 137.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 18.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Payout Ratio 54.8%

BLKB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BLKB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $731 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blackbaud. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Blackbaud. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BLKB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.4%, whose default value for BLKB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blackbaud, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blackbaud.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BLKB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $57 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BLKB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Blackbaud.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blackbaud. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BLKB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BLKB are equal to 44.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blackbaud operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BLKB is equal to -25.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $248 million for Blackbaud - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.365 million for Blackbaud is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blackbaud at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Blackbaud, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Blackbaud beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-06-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Blackbaud, Inc./   [Dec-02-17 04:23PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 2017 Giving Tuesday Highest on Record   [10:32AM  PR Newswire]
▶ #GivingTuesday Set to Break Online Giving Records Again   [Nov-28-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Blackbaud, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 12:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Blackbaud Earns Membership In 95-Plus Composite Rating Club   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Blackbaud beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-25-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackbaud Announces 2017 Partner Award Winners   [Oct-16-17 03:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Blackbaud Completes Acquisition of JustGiving   [Oct-03-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Blackbaud Named to Fortune's 2017 Change the World List   [Sep-07-17 09:11AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Blackbaud beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Stock in South Carolina: Blackbaud   [Jul-21-17 12:20PM  Kiplinger]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Blackbaud, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 03:26PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of BLKB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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