Intrinsic value of Barnes&Noble Education - BNED

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$10.41

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$10.41

 
Intrinsic value

$7.47

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BNED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,808
  1,844
  1,887
  1,935
  1,989
  2,050
  2,116
  2,188
  2,266
  2,350
  2,440
  2,537
  2,640
  2,749
  2,866
  2,989
  3,120
  3,259
  3,406
  3,561
  3,724
  3,897
  4,079
  4,271
  4,473
  4,686
  4,910
  5,146
  5,395
  5,656
  5,931
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,809
  1,850
  1,896
  1,949
  2,007
  2,071
  2,141
  2,216
  2,297
  2,384
  2,449
  2,549
  2,654
  2,767
  2,886
  3,013
  3,147
  3,288
  3,438
  3,596
  3,762
  3,938
  4,123
  4,319
  4,524
  4,741
  4,969
  5,208
  5,461
  5,726
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,803
  1,809
  1,850
  1,896
  1,949
  2,007
  2,071
  2,141
  2,216
  2,297
  2,384
  2,449
  2,549
  2,654
  2,767
  2,886
  3,013
  3,147
  3,288
  3,438
  3,596
  3,762
  3,938
  4,123
  4,319
  4,524
  4,741
  4,969
  5,208
  5,461
  5,726
Operating income, $m
  5
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
EBITDA, $m
  58
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  246
  257
  270
  283
  297
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
Tax expense, $m
  3
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Net income, $m
  0
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,072
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,183
  1,221
  1,263
  1,308
  1,356
  1,408
  1,464
  1,523
  1,586
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,464
  2,581
  2,704
  2,833
  2,970
  3,113
  3,264
  3,422
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,043
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,183
  1,221
  1,263
  1,308
  1,356
  1,408
  1,464
  1,523
  1,586
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,464
  2,581
  2,704
  2,833
  2,970
  3,113
  3,264
  3,422
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.732
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.732
  1.732
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.732
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
  1.733
Average production assets, $m
  308
  314
  321
  329
  338
  348
  360
  372
  385
  400
  415
  431
  449
  467
  487
  508
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  662
  693
  726
  760
  797
  835
  875
  917
  962
  1,008
Working capital, $m
  188
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  193
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  475
  498
  522
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  16
  26
  37
  49
  62
  77
  92
  109
  127
  147
  168
  190
  213
  238
  264
  292
  322
  353
  386
  421
  457
  496
  537
  580
  625
  672
  722
  775
  830
Total liabilities, $m
  363
  371
  380
  390
  401
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  491
  511
  532
  554
  577
  602
  628
  656
  686
  717
  750
  785
  821
  860
  901
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,086
  1,139
  1,194
Total equity, $m
  708
  693
  709
  727
  747
  770
  795
  822
  851
  883
  917
  953
  992
  1,033
  1,077
  1,123
  1,172
  1,224
  1,279
  1,338
  1,399
  1,464
  1,532
  1,604
  1,680
  1,760
  1,845
  1,933
  2,027
  2,125
  2,228
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,071
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,183
  1,221
  1,263
  1,307
  1,356
  1,408
  1,464
  1,524
  1,587
  1,654
  1,725
  1,800
  1,880
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,353
  2,464
  2,581
  2,704
  2,834
  2,969
  3,113
  3,264
  3,422
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651
  0.651

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  57
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  66
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  106
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  221
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  83
  82
  80
  82
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  91
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -71
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -134
Free cash flow, $m
  12
  49
  45
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -28
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  56
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  37
  36
  34
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
  29
  20
  20
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  69
  34
  31
  28
  26
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. operates bookstores for college and university campuses in the United States. It also provides digital education services for enhancing the academic and social purpose of educational institutions. In addition, the company sells and rents textbook and course material; sells general merchandise, including laptops and other technology products, notebooks, backpacks, school and dormitory supplies, and related items; offers a selection of trade, academic, and reference books; and provides digital education solutions through LoudCloud platform. As of April 30, 2016, the company operated 751 stores under the Barnes & Noble name, as well as e-commerce sites. Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. was founded in 1873 and is based in Basking Ridge, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Barnes&Noble Education (BNED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Operating Margin 0.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate 100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

BNED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BNED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1808 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Barnes&Noble Education. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Barnes&Noble Education. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BNED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BNED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Barnes&Noble Education, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Barnes&Noble Education.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BNED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BNED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Barnes&Noble Education.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Barnes&Noble Education. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BNED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BNED are equal to 17%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Barnes&Noble Education operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BNED is equal to 8.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $708 million for Barnes&Noble Education - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.016 million for Barnes&Noble Education is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Barnes&Noble Education at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BKS Barnes&Noble 8.55 1.35  str.sell
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AMZN Amazon.com 924.99 928.38  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cashing In On Textbook Rentals   [Mar-01-17 06:23PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Cashing In On Textbook Rentals   [06:23PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Barnes & Noble Education Sales Weaken Amid Lower Enrollment   [Feb-28-17 10:56AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Barnes & Noble Education posts 3Q profit   [08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. Dropped 12% in January   [Feb-15-17 10:33AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Investors Dump Textbooks, as Students Get Savvy   [Jan-19-17 05:26PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ [$$] Barnes & Noble and Rutgers to Open Bookstore in Downtown Newark   [Dec-20-16 12:21AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Barnes & Noble Moves to Downtown Newark   [Dec-19-16 03:31PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Barnes & Noble Education's Sales Slow; Shares Fall   [01:08PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Barnes & Noble Education Inc (BNED) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 04:52PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Can Barnes & Noble Education Climb Higher?   [Sep-06-16 01:05PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Barnes & Noble Says CEO Boire 'Not a Good Fit' and Will Step Down   [Aug-16-16 07:07PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Barnes & Noble Education Extends Relationship with OpenStax   [Aug-09-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of BNED Financial statements of BNED
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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