Intrinsic value of Bob Evans Farms - BOBE

Previous Close

$77.49

  Intrinsic Value

$26.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

  Value-price divergence*

+920%

Previous close

$77.49

 
Intrinsic value

$26.35

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+920%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOBE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.80
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  395
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  368
  377
  386
  397
  409
  422
  437
  452
  469
  487
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  365
  368
  377
  386
  397
  409
  422
  437
  452
  469
  487
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Operating income, $m
  30
  35
  36
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
EBITDA, $m
  90
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
Tax expense, $m
  4
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Net income, $m
  126
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  449
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  278
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  646
  677
  710
  744
  781
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  238
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  278
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  646
  677
  710
  744
  781
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.660
  1.658
  1.661
  1.659
  1.660
  1.659
  1.662
  1.660
  1.661
  1.660
  1.660
  1.659
  1.663
  1.660
  1.660
  1.662
  1.659
  1.660
  1.661
  1.659
  1.661
  1.659
  1.659
  1.660
  1.659
  1.660
  1.661
  1.660
  1.661
  1.661
  1.659
Average production assets, $m
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Working capital, $m
  176
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Total debt, $m
  3
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  97
  107
  117
  127
  138
  150
  163
  176
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  270
Total liabilities, $m
  118
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
Total equity, $m
  332
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  397
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  450
  242
  248
  254
  262
  270
  278
  288
  299
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  378
  394
  411
  429
  449
  469
  490
  513
  537
  563
  589
  616
  646
  677
  710
  744
  781
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.009
  0.040
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.140
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
New CAPEX, $m
  -66
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  492
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
Free cash flow, $m
  566
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -337
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -340
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  225
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -116
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  237
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  227
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Bob Evans Farms, Inc. (Bob Evans) is a producer and distributor of refrigerated potato, pasta and vegetable-based side dishes, pork sausage, and a variety of refrigerated and frozen food items under the Bob Evans and Owens or Country Creek brand names. The Company’s food products are distributed to customers throughout the United States. Additionally, the Company manufactures and sells similar products to foodservice customers, restaurants and food sellers. The Company operates through BEF Foods segment. The BEF Foods segment offers a range of wholesome food products to retail and foodservice customers. The Company produces food products in its four manufacturing facilities. It produces sausage products at its plants located in Hillsdale, Michigan, and Xenia, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.2
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 191.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.9%
Total Debt to Equity 0.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 28.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 46%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.2%
EBITDA Margin 23%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 31.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Effective Tax Rate 19%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

BOBE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOBE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $395 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bob Evans Farms. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Bob Evans Farms. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOBE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BOBE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bob Evans Farms, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bob Evans Farms.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOBE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOBE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Bob Evans Farms.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bob Evans Farms. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOBE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOBE are equal to 32.9%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bob Evans Farms operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOBE is equal to -8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $332 million for Bob Evans Farms - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.099 million for Bob Evans Farms is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bob Evans Farms at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Bob Evans operations staying in Central Ohio   [Sep-20-17 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Post Holdings to Buy Bob Evans Packaged Food Business   [05:34PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Stocks Edge Higher; Adobe Falls After Hours Following Earnings   [04:27PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Sausage Is In, Cereal Is Out   [10:44AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Bob Evans sells in $1.5B deal   [09:54AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans posts 1Q profit   [Aug-31-17 08:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Acquisition, new customers boost Bob Evans sales   [03:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-23-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 10th   [Jul-10-17 10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Bob Evans Made Enough Bacon for This Investor, So I'm Out   [Jun-28-17 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Jun-15-17 11:47AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Bob Evans posts 4Q profit   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week   [Jun-11-17 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bob Evans Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-31-17 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition   [12:07AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition   [May-30-17 02:19PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Bob Evans Sale Produces Special Dividend   [May-03-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Bob Evans sells restaurant chain, completing split from food business   [May-01-17 11:05AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bob Evans Farms Getting Bigger   [Apr-28-17 03:26PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Three Small Caps to Buy for the Second Quarter   [Apr-05-17 12:35PM  Investopedia]
▶ Einhorn's GM Plan Poses Conflict Challenge for Board   [Mar-30-17 12:56PM  Investopedia]
Financial statements of BOBE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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