Intrinsic value of Bojangles' - BOJA

Previous Close

$13.20

  Intrinsic Value

$16.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+22%

  Value-price divergence*

-7%

Previous close

$13.20

 
Intrinsic value

$16.15

 
Up/down potential

+22%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-7%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BOJA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.02
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  532
  548
  567
  586
  607
  630
  655
  681
  709
  738
  770
  803
  838
  876
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,048
  1,097
  1,149
  1,203
  1,260
  1,321
  1,384
  1,451
  1,522
  1,596
  1,674
  1,755
  1,841
  1,932
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  362
  373
  385
  399
  413
  428
  445
  462
  481
  501
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  631
  660
  691
  723
  758
  794
  832
  872
  914
  958
  1,005
  1,054
  1,105
  1,160
  1,217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  236
  241
  248
Total operating expenses, $m
  466
  483
  497
  512
  529
  547
  565
  585
  606
  628
  652
  661
  687
  715
  743
  774
  806
  840
  875
  912
  951
  992
  1,035
  1,080
  1,127
  1,177
  1,229
  1,284
  1,341
  1,401
  1,465
Operating income, $m
  66
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  96
  102
  110
  118
  143
  152
  162
  172
  184
  196
  208
  222
  237
  252
  269
  286
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  414
  440
  468
EBITDA, $m
  82
  95
  99
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  263
  280
  298
  316
  336
  357
  380
  403
  428
  455
  483
  512
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  130
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  216
  230
  245
  261
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  379
  403
  428
Tax expense, $m
  19
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
Net income, $m
  38
  43
  46
  48
  51
  55
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  95
  101
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  168
  179
  190
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  277
  294
  313

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  560
  563
  582
  602
  624
  647
  672
  699
  727
  758
  790
  824
  861
  899
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,294
  1,356
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,638
  1,718
  1,802
  1,891
  1,983
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  546
  563
  582
  602
  624
  647
  672
  699
  727
  758
  790
  824
  861
  899
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,294
  1,356
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,638
  1,718
  1,802
  1,891
  1,983
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.974
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.975
  0.974
  0.975
  0.974
  0.975
  0.975
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
Average production assets, $m
  368
  379
  391
  405
  420
  435
  452
  470
  490
  510
  532
  555
  579
  605
  633
  661
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,103
  1,156
  1,213
  1,272
  1,335
Working capital, $m
  -23
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
Total debt, $m
  186
  188
  199
  212
  225
  240
  256
  272
  290
  309
  329
  351
  373
  397
  422
  449
  477
  507
  539
  572
  607
  643
  682
  723
  765
  810
  858
  907
  960
  1,015
  1,073
Total liabilities, $m
  349
  351
  362
  375
  388
  403
  419
  435
  453
  472
  492
  514
  536
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  702
  735
  770
  806
  845
  886
  928
  973
  1,021
  1,070
  1,123
  1,178
  1,236
Total equity, $m
  211
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
  648
  679
  713
  748
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  560
  563
  581
  602
  623
  647
  672
  698
  727
  758
  790
  825
  861
  899
  939
  982
  1,028
  1,076
  1,127
  1,180
  1,236
  1,294
  1,356
  1,422
  1,490
  1,562
  1,639
  1,718
  1,802
  1,891
  1,984
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.882
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.080
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.361
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  43
  46
  48
  51
  55
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  95
  101
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  168
  179
  190
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  277
  294
  313
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  111
  113
  120
  128
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  208
  221
  235
  249
  265
  281
  299
  317
  337
  357
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  303
  321
  341
  362
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -99
  -104
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  226
  241
  257
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -45
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  95
  102
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  279
  296
  315
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -44
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  59
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  83
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  218
  232
  247
  263
  280
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  48
  46
  44
  42
  40
  38
  36
  33
  30
  26
  24
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bojangles’, Inc. operates and franchises limited service restaurants in the United States. Its restaurants serve chicken items, made-from-scratch buttermilk biscuits, flavorful fixin’s, and iced tea. As of September 25, 2016, the company had 699 system-wide restaurants, including 301 company-operated and 398 franchised restaurants primarily located in the Southeastern United States. Bojangles’, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bojangles' (BOJA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 83.9%
Total Debt to Equity 88.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 20.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
EBITDA Margin 15.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BOJA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BOJA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $532 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bojangles'. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bojangles'. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BOJA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for BOJA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bojangles', is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bojangles'.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BOJA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $118 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BOJA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Bojangles'.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bojangles'. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BOJA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BOJA are equal to 69.1%.

Life of production assets of 33 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bojangles' operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BOJA is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $211 million for Bojangles' - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.478 million for Bojangles' is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bojangles' at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Bojangles, Inc. : August 14, 2017   [Aug-14-17 04:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 1st   [Aug-01-17 09:44AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Bojangles', Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [Jul-28-17 10:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bojangles beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Bojangles, Inc. : June 1, 2017   [Jun-01-17 01:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ EXCLUSIVE: Sneak peek of Bojangles new restaurant prototype (PHOTOS)   [May-30-17 10:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ EXCLUSIVE: Sneak peek of Bojangles new restaurant prototype (PHOTOS)   [May-26-17 04:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ EXCLUSIVE: Sneak peek of Bojangles new restaurant prototype (PHOTOS)   [May-24-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Bojangles, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Bojangles, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Bojangles', Inc. Stock Is Getting Cut Today   [May-03-17 01:18PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bojangles tops 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Bojangles, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Bojangles tops 4Q profit forecasts   [04:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Dates for Savvy Investors to Circle in March   [Mar-01-17 01:37PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Bojangles® Introduces One-Of-A-Kind Bo-Tato Breakfast Bowl   [Feb-20-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Restaurant Brands Can Do Better Than Popeyes   [Feb-14-17 09:27AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Bojangles to replace Charlotte restaurant with new design   [Dec-20-16 07:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is M/I Homes Inc (MHO) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 09:05PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The Bojangles'® Cinnamon Biscuit is Back!   [Nov-17-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of BOJA Financial statements of BOJA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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