Intrinsic value of Blueprint Medicines - BPMC

Previous Close

$75.42

  Intrinsic Value

$1.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$75.42

 
Intrinsic value

$1.21

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BPMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  154.55
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  28
  37
  49
  62
  78
  97
  118
  141
  167
  196
  228
  261
  298
  336
  377
  421
  466
  514
  564
  616
  670
  727
  786
  847
  911
  977
  1,046
  1,117
  1,191
  1,268
  1,349
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  81
  106
  136
  171
  211
  256
  308
  365
  428
  496
  570
  649
  733
  822
  917
  1,016
  1,120
  1,229
  1,343
  1,461
  1,584
  1,713
  1,846
  1,985
  2,129
  2,278
  2,434
  2,596
  2,764
  2,939
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
Total operating expenses, $m
  100
  122
  148
  179
  215
  256
  302
  356
  414
  478
  547
  622
  703
  788
  879
  975
  1,075
  1,181
  1,291
  1,407
  1,527
  1,651
  1,782
  1,917
  2,057
  2,203
  2,354
  2,512
  2,676
  2,846
  3,023
Operating income, $m
  -73
  -85
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -159
  -185
  -214
  -246
  -281
  -320
  -361
  -405
  -452
  -501
  -554
  -609
  -667
  -727
  -790
  -856
  -924
  -996
  -1,069
  -1,146
  -1,226
  -1,309
  -1,395
  -1,484
  -1,577
  -1,674
EBITDA, $m
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -114
  -133
  -155
  -180
  -208
  -238
  -272
  -309
  -349
  -391
  -436
  -484
  -534
  -587
  -643
  -701
  -762
  -825
  -891
  -959
  -1,030
  -1,104
  -1,181
  -1,260
  -1,343
  -1,429
  -1,518
  -1,611
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
Earnings before tax, $m
  -73
  -85
  -100
  -118
  -139
  -163
  -190
  -221
  -255
  -292
  -332
  -376
  -423
  -473
  -525
  -581
  -639
  -701
  -765
  -832
  -902
  -974
  -1,050
  -1,128
  -1,210
  -1,294
  -1,382
  -1,474
  -1,569
  -1,667
  -1,770
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -73
  -85
  -100
  -118
  -139
  -163
  -190
  -221
  -255
  -292
  -332
  -376
  -423
  -473
  -525
  -581
  -639
  -701
  -765
  -832
  -902
  -974
  -1,050
  -1,128
  -1,210
  -1,294
  -1,382
  -1,474
  -1,569
  -1,667
  -1,770

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  214
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  283
  92
  120
  153
  193
  238
  290
  348
  413
  483
  561
  644
  733
  829
  930
  1,036
  1,148
  1,266
  1,389
  1,518
  1,651
  1,791
  1,936
  2,087
  2,243
  2,406
  2,575
  2,751
  2,934
  3,124
  3,322
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  69
  92
  120
  153
  193
  238
  290
  348
  413
  483
  561
  644
  733
  829
  930
  1,036
  1,148
  1,266
  1,389
  1,518
  1,651
  1,791
  1,936
  2,087
  2,243
  2,406
  2,575
  2,751
  2,934
  3,124
  3,322
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.406
  0.402
  0.408
  0.405
  0.404
  0.408
  0.407
  0.405
  0.404
  0.406
  0.406
  0.405
  0.407
  0.405
  0.405
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
Average production assets, $m
  7
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  182
  197
  211
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  313
Working capital, $m
  191
  -27
  -35
  -44
  -56
  -69
  -84
  -101
  -120
  -140
  -162
  -187
  -213
  -240
  -269
  -300
  -333
  -367
  -403
  -440
  -479
  -519
  -561
  -605
  -650
  -697
  -747
  -797
  -850
  -906
  -963
Total debt, $m
  4
  17
  42
  72
  107
  148
  195
  247
  305
  369
  438
  513
  594
  680
  771
  867
  968
  1,073
  1,184
  1,300
  1,420
  1,546
  1,676
  1,812
  1,953
  2,099
  2,252
  2,410
  2,575
  2,746
  2,924
Total liabilities, $m
  70
  83
  108
  138
  173
  214
  261
  313
  371
  435
  504
  579
  660
  746
  837
  933
  1,034
  1,139
  1,250
  1,366
  1,486
  1,612
  1,742
  1,878
  2,019
  2,165
  2,318
  2,476
  2,641
  2,812
  2,990
Total equity, $m
  213
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  48
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  224
  241
  258
  275
  293
  312
  332
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  283
  92
  120
  153
  192
  238
  290
  348
  412
  483
  560
  643
  733
  829
  930
  1,037
  1,149
  1,266
  1,389
  1,518
  1,651
  1,791
  1,936
  2,087
  2,243
  2,406
  2,576
  2,751
  2,934
  3,124
  3,322
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.019
  1.820
  3.500
  4.700
  5.580
  6.230
  6.720
  7.100
  7.400
  7.630
  7.820
  7.970
  8.100
  8.200
  8.290
  8.360
  8.430
  8.480
  8.520
  8.570
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.710
  8.730
  8.740
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.014
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -73
  -85
  -100
  -118
  -139
  -163
  -190
  -221
  -255
  -292
  -332
  -376
  -423
  -473
  -525
  -581
  -639
  -701
  -765
  -832
  -902
  -974
  -1,050
  -1,128
  -1,210
  -1,294
  -1,382
  -1,474
  -1,569
  -1,667
  -1,770
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  -83
  -98
  -115
  -135
  -159
  -185
  -214
  -247
  -283
  -322
  -364
  -409
  -457
  -508
  -561
  -618
  -677
  -739
  -803
  -870
  -940
  -1,013
  -1,089
  -1,167
  -1,249
  -1,334
  -1,422
  -1,513
  -1,609
  -1,708
Change in working capital, $m
  40
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  -25
  -77
  -90
  -105
  -124
  -145
  -170
  -198
  -228
  -262
  -300
  -340
  -383
  -429
  -478
  -530
  -585
  -643
  -703
  -766
  -832
  -900
  -971
  -1,045
  -1,122
  -1,202
  -1,285
  -1,371
  -1,460
  -1,553
  -1,650
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -219
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -19
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -44
  -48
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -78
Free cash flow, $m
  -244
  -80
  -94
  -111
  -131
  -153
  -179
  -208
  -241
  -277
  -316
  -358
  -404
  -452
  -504
  -558
  -615
  -676
  -738
  -804
  -873
  -944
  -1,018
  -1,096
  -1,176
  -1,259
  -1,346
  -1,436
  -1,529
  -1,627
  -1,728
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  16
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  136
  92
  103
  121
  143
  168
  196
  227
  261
  299
  340
  384
  432
  482
  535
  592
  651
  713
  777
  845
  915
  988
  1,064
  1,143
  1,225
  1,311
  1,399
  1,491
  1,587
  1,686
  1,790
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  133
  108
  128
  151
  178
  209
  243
  279
  319
  363
  409
  459
  512
  568
  626
  688
  752
  819
  888
  961
  1,036
  1,113
  1,194
  1,279
  1,366
  1,458
  1,551
  1,649
  1,752
  1,857
  1,968
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -111
  28
  34
  41
  48
  55
  63
  71
  78
  86
  94
  101
  109
  116
  123
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -92
  -103
  -121
  -143
  -168
  -196
  -227
  -261
  -299
  -340
  -384
  -432
  -482
  -535
  -592
  -651
  -713
  -777
  -845
  -915
  -988
  -1,064
  -1,143
  -1,225
  -1,311
  -1,399
  -1,491
  -1,587
  -1,686
  -1,790
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  147
  -69
  -81
  -95
  -112
  -133
  -156
  -183
  -213
  -246
  -283
  -323
  -366
  -413
  -462
  -514
  -570
  -628
  -689
  -752
  -819
  -888
  -960
  -1,035
  -1,113
  -1,194
  -1,278
  -1,365
  -1,455
  -1,550
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  141
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -134
  -138
  -139
  -139
  -136
  -131
  -124
  -116
  -106
  -96
  -85
  -74
  -63
  -53
  -43
  -35
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  17.8
  8.4
  4.2
  2.2
  1.2
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Blueprint Medicines Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on patients with genomically defined diseases driven by abnormal kinase activation. It focuses on crafting drug candidates that provide clinical responses to patients without adequate treatment options. It has developed a small molecule drug pipeline in cancer and a genetic disease. Its drug candidate, BLU-285, targets KIT, including Exon 17 mutations, and targets PDGFRa, including the D842V mutation. These mutations activate receptor tyrosine kinases that are drivers of cancer and proliferative disorders, including gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and systemic mastocytosis (SM). Its drug candidate BLU-554 targets FGFR4, a kinase that is activated in a defined subset of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the common type of liver cancer. It is engaged in developing BLU-667, a drug candidate that targets RET, a receptor tyrosine kinase that is activated by mutations or translocations.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blueprint Medicines (BPMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -34.2
Price to Sales 89.2
Price to Book 11.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -99.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -92.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 154.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 71
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.5%
Total Debt to Equity 1.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -31.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.3%
Return On Total Capital -39.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -90.6%
Return On Equity -40.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -253.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -242.1%
Operating Margin -257.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -243.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -260.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -247.5%
Net Profit Margin -260.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -247.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

BPMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BPMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blueprint Medicines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Blueprint Medicines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BPMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BPMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blueprint Medicines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blueprint Medicines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BPMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 217.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $40 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BPMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Blueprint Medicines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blueprint Medicines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BPMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BPMC are equal to 23.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blueprint Medicines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BPMC is equal to -71.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $213 million for Blueprint Medicines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.026 million for Blueprint Medicines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blueprint Medicines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Company News For Dec 12, 2017   [10:47AM  Zacks]
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▶ Cambridge biotechs among big winners at ASH blood disease conference   [Dec-10-17 09:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Blueprint Medicines reports 3Q loss   [07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Blueprint Medicines reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexion cuts ties with two Cambridge biotechs in reorganization   [Jul-27-17 11:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bluebird and Radius gain, while Blueprint and Tesaro fall, at ASCO cancer summit   [Jun-06-17 06:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Blueprint Medicines reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Have Doubled Your Money   [Apr-27-17 12:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Biotech Stocks That Are Broker Favorites   [Mar-21-17 09:25AM  Zacks]
Financial statements of BPMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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