Intrinsic value of Brady Cl A - BRC

Previous Close

$38.30

  Intrinsic Value

$14.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

  Value-price divergence*

-1%

Previous close

$38.30

 
Intrinsic value

$14.41

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-1%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,121
  1,143
  1,170
  1,200
  1,234
  1,271
  1,312
  1,357
  1,405
  1,457
  1,513
  1,573
  1,637
  1,705
  1,777
  1,854
  1,935
  2,021
  2,112
  2,208
  2,309
  2,416
  2,529
  2,648
  2,773
  2,906
  3,045
  3,191
  3,345
  3,507
  3,677
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,108
  1,133
  1,161
  1,192
  1,227
  1,265
  1,307
  1,352
  1,401
  1,453
  1,465
  1,525
  1,588
  1,655
  1,727
  1,803
  1,883
  1,967
  2,057
  2,151
  2,251
  2,356
  2,467
  2,584
  2,707
  2,836
  2,973
  3,116
  3,267
  3,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,003
  1,108
  1,133
  1,161
  1,192
  1,227
  1,265
  1,307
  1,352
  1,401
  1,453
  1,465
  1,525
  1,588
  1,655
  1,727
  1,803
  1,883
  1,967
  2,057
  2,151
  2,251
  2,356
  2,467
  2,584
  2,707
  2,836
  2,973
  3,116
  3,267
  3,426
Operating income, $m
  118
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  108
  112
  117
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
EBITDA, $m
  150
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
Earnings before tax, $m
  109
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  41
  43
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  159
  165
  172
Tax expense, $m
  29
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
Net income, $m
  80
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,044
  921
  943
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,219
  1,267
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,702
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,453
  2,571
  2,695
  2,826
  2,963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  903
  921
  943
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,219
  1,267
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,702
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,453
  2,571
  2,695
  2,826
  2,963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.242
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.242
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
  1.241
Average production assets, $m
  172
  175
  179
  184
  189
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  241
  250
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  445
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
Working capital, $m
  240
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
Total debt, $m
  100
  104
  114
  126
  139
  154
  170
  187
  206
  226
  248
  271
  296
  322
  350
  380
  411
  445
  480
  517
  557
  598
  642
  689
  737
  788
  842
  899
  959
  1,022
  1,088
Total liabilities, $m
  440
  444
  454
  466
  479
  494
  510
  527
  546
  566
  588
  611
  636
  662
  690
  720
  751
  785
  820
  857
  897
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,299
  1,362
  1,428
Total equity, $m
  604
  477
  488
  501
  515
  530
  548
  566
  586
  608
  632
  657
  683
  712
  742
  774
  808
  843
  881
  922
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,105
  1,158
  1,213
  1,271
  1,332
  1,396
  1,464
  1,535
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,044
  921
  942
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,058
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,220
  1,268
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,701
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,453
  2,571
  2,695
  2,826
  2,963
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.166
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  80
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  52
  53
  53
  53
  53
  54
  54
  54
  55
  55
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  155
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  84
  87
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  80
  81
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  124
  58
  58
  58
  58
  58
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -38
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -59
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  67
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  136
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  194
  57
  57
  57
  57
  57
  58
  58
  59
  59
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  186
  52
  50
  47
  44
  42
  39
  36
  34
  31
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Brady Corporation is a manufacturer and supplier of identification solutions and workplace safety products that identify and protect premises, products and people. The Company has two segments: Identification Solutions (IDS) and Workplace Safety (WPS). The IDS segment includes identification and healthcare products, and the WPS segment includes workplace safety and compliance products. The IDS segment offers products that are manufactured under various brands, including the Brady brand, and are primarily sold through distribution to a range of maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) and original equipment manufacturing (OEM) customers, and through other channels. The WPS segment offers a range of product categories, such as safety and compliance signs, tags, and labels; informational and architectural signage; industrial warehouse and office equipment, and labor law compliance posters. Its brands include Electromark, Identicard, PromoVision, Scafftag, Seton and Emedco.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Brady Cl A (BRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 28
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15.7%
Total Debt to Equity 16.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 10.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
Payout Ratio 51.3%

BRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Brady Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Brady Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Brady Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Brady Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Brady Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Brady Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BRC are equal to 15.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Brady Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BRC is equal to 9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $604 million for Brady Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.142 million for Brady Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Brady Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Oct-18-17 10:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 10:40AM  Capital Cube]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Sep-14-17 10:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Brady beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Sep-07-17 10:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Brady Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:BRC) : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 10:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Aug-09-17 10:57AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Brady Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 03:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Brady meets 3Q profit forecasts   [May-25-17 07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Brady Corporation declares regular dividend to shareholders   [May-24-17 05:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Apr-28-17 12:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brady Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:BRC) : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 10th   [Apr-10-17 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for March 30th   [Mar-30-17 10:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Brady Corporation declares regular dividend to shareholders   [Feb-22-17 05:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Brady Corporation Announces Earnings Conference Call   [Jan-25-17 01:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of BRC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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