Intrinsic value of Craft Brew Alliance - BREW

Previous Close

$19.00

  Intrinsic Value

$1.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$19.00

 
Intrinsic value

$1.39

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BREW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.49
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  203
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  238
  246
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  551
  578
  606
  635
  666
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  203
  208
  213
  219
  225
  233
  240
  249
  258
  268
  277
  289
  301
  313
  327
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  202
  203
  208
  213
  219
  225
  233
  240
  249
  258
  268
  277
  289
  301
  313
  327
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
Operating income, $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
EBITDA, $m
  11
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Net income, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  200
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
  656
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  200
  204
  209
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
  656
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.015
  1.015
  1.014
  1.014
  1.014
  1.013
  1.017
  1.017
  1.012
  1.015
  1.015
  1.014
  1.014
  1.016
  1.016
  1.015
  1.014
  1.014
  1.013
  1.015
  1.015
  1.016
  1.016
  1.017
  1.014
  1.015
  1.015
  1.016
  1.015
  1.014
  1.015
Average production assets, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
Working capital, $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total debt, $m
  29
  31
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
Total liabilities, $m
  81
  82
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
Total equity, $m
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  394
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  201
  204
  208
  214
  220
  227
  234
  242
  250
  260
  270
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  570
  597
  625
  656
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.242
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  2
  3
  3
  3
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  17
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.8
  99.5
  99.2
  98.8
  98.3
  97.8
  97.3
  96.6
  96.0
  95.5
  94.9
  94.4
  93.7
  93.1
  92.4
  91.7
  91.0
  90.3
  89.6
  88.8
  88.0
  87.3
  86.5
  85.7
  84.9
  84.1
  83.3
  82.5
  81.7

Craft Brew Alliance, Inc. is a craft brewing company that is engaged in brewing, branding and bringing to market American craft beers. The Company operates through two segments: Beer Related operations, which include the brewing operations and related domestic and international beer and cider sales of its Kona, Widmer Brothers, Redhook and Omission beer brands, and Square Mile cider brand, and Pubs operations, which include its approximately five pubs, over four of which are located adjacent to its Beer Related operations, as well as other merchandise sales, and sales of its beers directly to customers. The Company's portfolio of brands includes the Kona Brewing Company, Widmer Brothers Brewing, Redhook Brewery, Omission Beer and Square Mile Cider Company brand families, along with partner brands Appalachian Mountain Brewery, Cisco Brewers and Resignation Brewery. Its brews its beers using hops, malted barley, wheat, rye and other natural traditional and nontraditional ingredients.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Craft Brew Alliance (BREW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 52.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -40.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 23.3%
Total Debt to Equity 24.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 5.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 0.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Payout Ratio 0%

BREW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BREW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $203 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Craft Brew Alliance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Craft Brew Alliance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BREW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for BREW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Craft Brew Alliance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Craft Brew Alliance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BREW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BREW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Craft Brew Alliance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Craft Brew Alliance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BREW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BREW are equal to 37.7%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Craft Brew Alliance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BREW is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $120 million for Craft Brew Alliance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.294 million for Craft Brew Alliance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Craft Brew Alliance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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Financial statements of BREW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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