Intrinsic value of Bruker - BRKR

Previous Close

$30.94

  Intrinsic Value

$21.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

  Value-price divergence*

+83%

Previous close

$30.94

 
Intrinsic value

$21.71

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+83%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BRKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.80
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  1,611
  1,798
  1,995
  2,201
  2,417
  2,642
  2,877
  3,122
  3,377
  3,642
  3,917
  4,203
  4,500
  4,809
  5,130
  5,464
  5,812
  6,173
  6,550
  6,942
  7,351
  7,778
  8,223
  8,687
  9,173
  9,679
  10,209
  10,763
  11,343
  11,949
  12,584
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,635
  1,812
  1,998
  2,193
  2,396
  2,608
  2,829
  3,059
  3,297
  3,546
  3,790
  4,059
  4,337
  4,627
  4,928
  5,241
  5,567
  5,907
  6,261
  6,630
  7,014
  7,416
  7,835
  8,272
  8,730
  9,207
  9,707
  10,230
  10,777
  11,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,635
  1,812
  1,998
  2,193
  2,396
  2,608
  2,829
  3,059
  3,297
  3,546
  3,790
  4,059
  4,337
  4,627
  4,928
  5,241
  5,567
  5,907
  6,261
  6,630
  7,014
  7,416
  7,835
  8,272
  8,730
  9,207
  9,707
  10,230
  10,777
  11,349
Operating income, $m
  186
  163
  183
  203
  224
  246
  269
  293
  318
  344
  371
  412
  442
  472
  503
  536
  570
  606
  643
  681
  721
  763
  807
  853
  900
  950
  1,002
  1,056
  1,113
  1,173
  1,235
EBITDA, $m
  240
  219
  243
  268
  294
  322
  350
  380
  411
  443
  477
  512
  548
  585
  624
  665
  707
  751
  797
  845
  895
  947
  1,001
  1,057
  1,116
  1,178
  1,243
  1,310
  1,381
  1,454
  1,532
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  15
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  134
  143
  154
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  238
  253
  268
  284
Earnings before tax, $m
  178
  148
  163
  178
  194
  210
  228
  245
  264
  283
  304
  338
  359
  382
  405
  430
  455
  482
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  701
  738
  777
  818
  860
  905
  951
Tax expense, $m
  23
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  232
  244
  257
Net income, $m
  154
  108
  119
  130
  141
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  246
  262
  279
  296
  314
  332
  352
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  628
  660
  694

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  500
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,808
  1,459
  1,619
  1,786
  1,962
  2,145
  2,336
  2,534
  2,741
  2,956
  3,179
  3,411
  3,653
  3,903
  4,164
  4,435
  4,717
  5,011
  5,316
  5,635
  5,967
  6,313
  6,674
  7,051
  7,445
  7,857
  8,287
  8,736
  9,207
  9,699
  10,214
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,308
  1,459
  1,619
  1,786
  1,962
  2,145
  2,336
  2,534
  2,741
  2,956
  3,179
  3,411
  3,653
  3,903
  4,164
  4,435
  4,717
  5,011
  5,316
  5,635
  5,967
  6,313
  6,674
  7,051
  7,445
  7,857
  8,287
  8,736
  9,207
  9,699
  10,214
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
  1.232
Average production assets, $m
  309
  343
  381
  420
  462
  505
  550
  596
  645
  696
  748
  803
  860
  919
  980
  1,044
  1,110
  1,179
  1,251
  1,326
  1,404
  1,486
  1,571
  1,659
  1,752
  1,849
  1,950
  2,056
  2,166
  2,282
  2,403
Working capital, $m
  751
  302
  335
  370
  406
  444
  483
  525
  567
  612
  658
  706
  756
  808
  862
  918
  976
  1,037
  1,100
  1,166
  1,235
  1,307
  1,381
  1,459
  1,541
  1,626
  1,715
  1,808
  1,906
  2,007
  2,114
Total debt, $m
  412
  520
  655
  796
  944
  1,098
  1,259
  1,426
  1,601
  1,782
  1,970
  2,166
  2,369
  2,581
  2,800
  3,029
  3,267
  3,514
  3,772
  4,040
  4,320
  4,612
  4,916
  5,234
  5,566
  5,913
  6,276
  6,655
  7,051
  7,466
  7,900
Total liabilities, $m
  1,122
  1,230
  1,365
  1,506
  1,654
  1,808
  1,969
  2,136
  2,311
  2,492
  2,680
  2,876
  3,079
  3,291
  3,510
  3,739
  3,977
  4,224
  4,482
  4,750
  5,030
  5,322
  5,626
  5,944
  6,276
  6,623
  6,986
  7,365
  7,761
  8,176
  8,610
Total equity, $m
  686
  229
  254
  280
  308
  337
  367
  398
  430
  464
  499
  536
  573
  613
  654
  696
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  991
  1,048
  1,107
  1,169
  1,234
  1,301
  1,372
  1,445
  1,523
  1,604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,808
  1,459
  1,619
  1,786
  1,962
  2,145
  2,336
  2,534
  2,741
  2,956
  3,179
  3,412
  3,652
  3,904
  4,164
  4,435
  4,718
  5,011
  5,317
  5,635
  5,967
  6,313
  6,674
  7,051
  7,445
  7,857
  8,287
  8,737
  9,206
  9,699
  10,214
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.601
  2.270
  2.580
  2.840
  3.060
  3.260
  3.430
  3.580
  3.720
  3.840
  3.950
  4.040
  4.130
  4.210
  4.280
  4.350
  4.410
  4.470
  4.520
  4.570
  4.610
  4.650
  4.690
  4.730
  4.760
  4.790
  4.820
  4.850
  4.880
  4.900
  4.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.142
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  154
  108
  119
  130
  141
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  246
  262
  279
  296
  314
  332
  352
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  628
  660
  694
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  154
  164
  173
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  267
  282
  297
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  164
  179
  195
  212
  229
  247
  266
  286
  306
  327
  346
  368
  392
  417
  443
  469
  497
  526
  556
  588
  621
  655
  691
  728
  767
  808
  851
  895
  942
  991
Change in working capital, $m
  -89
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  131
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  225
  243
  261
  281
  297
  318
  340
  363
  386
  411
  436
  463
  490
  519
  549
  580
  613
  647
  682
  719
  758
  798
  840
  884
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -282
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -347
  -365
  -383
  -403
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  59
  66
  74
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  151
  163
  175
  188
  202
  216
  230
  245
  261
  277
  294
  312
  330
  349
  369
  390
  411
  434
  457
  481
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  146
  128
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  258
  268
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -149
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  128
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  258
  268
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  188
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  295
  312
  331
  346
  366
  387
  408
  430
  454
  478
  503
  530
  557
  586
  616
  648
  681
  716
  752
  790
  830
  872
  916
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  40
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  480
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  645
  176
  189
  202
  217
  231
  246
  262
  279
  296
  310
  328
  347
  367
  388
  409
  432
  455
  480
  505
  532
  560
  589
  619
  651
  685
  720
  756
  795
  835
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  618
  161
  164
  167
  168
  168
  167
  164
  160
  155
  147
  140
  132
  123
  114
  104
  94
  84
  74
  64
  55
  46
  39
  32
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bruker Corporation designs and manufactures scientific instruments, and analytical and diagnostic solutions. Its segments include the Bruker BioSpin Group; the Bruker Chemicals, Applied Markets, Life Science, In-Vitro Diagnostics, Detection (CALID) Group; the Bruker Nano Group, and the Bruker Energy & Supercon Technologies (BEST) Segment. The Bruker BioSpin Group segment designs, manufactures and distributes enabling life science tools. The Bruker CALID segment designs, manufactures and distributes life science mass spectrometry instruments that can be integrated and used along with other sample preparation or chromatography instruments, as well as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive detection products. The Bruker Nano segment designs, manufactures and distributes spectroscopy and microscopy instruments. The BEST segment develops and manufactures superconducting and non-superconducting materials and devices. It also focuses on nanomechanical testing instruments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bruker (BRKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 57.1%
Total Debt to Equity 60.1%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44%
EBITDA Margin 15.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 12.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
Payout Ratio 16.9%

BRKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BRKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1611 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bruker. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bruker. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BRKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BRKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bruker, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bruker.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BRKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BRKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Bruker.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bruker. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BRKR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BRKR are equal to 19.1%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bruker operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BRKR is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $686 million for Bruker - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158.377 million for Bruker is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bruker at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Bruker Corporations (BRKR) ROE Of 22.57% Sustainable?   [Sep-29-17 06:12PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Bruker Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-14-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bruker beats Street 2Q forecasts   [02:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Bruker Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 11th   [Jul-11-17 10:42AM  Zacks]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [May-22-17 01:55PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Bruker meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Bruker Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:BRKR) : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Bruker Corporation to Present at Investor Conferences   [Feb-27-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bruker Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-21-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of BRKR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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