Intrinsic value of BRT Apartments - BRT

Previous Close

$10.40

  Intrinsic Value

$2.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$10.40

 
Intrinsic value

$2.98

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BRT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.07
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  106
  114
  123
  131
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  255
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  390
  411
  432
  455
  479
  503
  529
  557
  585
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  259
  274
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  489
  515
  542
  570
  599
  630
  662
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  121
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  259
  274
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
  378
  398
  420
  442
  465
  489
  515
  542
  570
  599
  630
  662
Operating income, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
EBITDA, $m
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
Earnings before tax, $m
  37
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  14
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  994
  1,057
  1,136
  1,217
  1,302
  1,390
  1,482
  1,577
  1,676
  1,780
  1,887
  2,000
  2,116
  2,238
  2,366
  2,499
  2,637
  2,782
  2,934
  3,093
  3,259
  3,432
  3,614
  3,804
  4,004
  4,212
  4,431
  4,660
  4,901
  5,153
  5,417
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  982
  1,057
  1,136
  1,217
  1,302
  1,390
  1,482
  1,577
  1,676
  1,780
  1,887
  2,000
  2,116
  2,238
  2,366
  2,499
  2,637
  2,782
  2,934
  3,093
  3,259
  3,432
  3,614
  3,804
  4,004
  4,212
  4,431
  4,660
  4,901
  5,153
  5,417
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
Average production assets, $m
  832
  895
  962
  1,031
  1,103
  1,178
  1,255
  1,336
  1,420
  1,508
  1,599
  1,694
  1,793
  1,896
  2,004
  2,117
  2,234
  2,357
  2,486
  2,620
  2,761
  2,908
  3,062
  3,223
  3,392
  3,569
  3,754
  3,948
  4,152
  4,365
  4,589
Working capital, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Total debt, $m
  735
  798
  864
  933
  1,005
  1,079
  1,156
  1,237
  1,320
  1,407
  1,498
  1,593
  1,691
  1,794
  1,901
  2,013
  2,130
  2,253
  2,380
  2,514
  2,654
  2,800
  2,954
  3,114
  3,282
  3,458
  3,642
  3,836
  4,038
  4,251
  4,474
Total liabilities, $m
  828
  891
  957
  1,026
  1,098
  1,172
  1,249
  1,330
  1,413
  1,500
  1,591
  1,686
  1,784
  1,887
  1,994
  2,106
  2,223
  2,346
  2,473
  2,607
  2,747
  2,893
  3,047
  3,207
  3,375
  3,551
  3,735
  3,929
  4,131
  4,344
  4,567
Total equity, $m
  166
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
  332
  351
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  629
  661
  696
  732
  769
  809
  850
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  994
  1,057
  1,135
  1,217
  1,302
  1,390
  1,482
  1,578
  1,676
  1,779
  1,887
  2,000
  2,116
  2,238
  2,365
  2,498
  2,637
  2,783
  2,934
  3,093
  3,259
  3,432
  3,614
  3,804
  4,004
  4,212
  4,431
  4,661
  4,900
  5,153
  5,417
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.428
  4.810
  4.850
  4.880
  4.910
  4.940
  4.970
  4.990
  5.020
  5.040
  5.060
  5.070
  5.090
  5.100
  5.120
  5.130
  5.140
  5.160
  5.170
  5.180
  5.190
  5.200
  5.210
  5.210
  5.220
  5.230
  5.240
  5.240
  5.250
  5.250
  5.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157
  0.157

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
Funds from operations, $m
  8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
New CAPEX, $m
  -238
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -213
  -224
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -356
  -373
  -392
Free cash flow, $m
  -64
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -459
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  51
  63
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  119
  126
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  232
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
  381
  400
  420
  441
  464
  487
  512
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  14
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -30
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
Discount rate, %
 
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.23
  23.35
  24.51
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.49
  36.22
  38.03
  39.93
  41.93
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -27
  -35
  -33
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  70.4
  49.7
  35.1
  24.8
  17.5
  12.4
  8.8
  6.2
  4.4
  3.1
  2.2
  1.6
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

BRT Apartments Corp. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust is focused on the ownership, operation and development of multi-family properties. These activities are primarily conducted through joint ventures in which the Trust has an equity interest in the entity owning the property. The Trust's segments include Multi-Family Real Estate and Other Assets. The Multi-Family Real Estate segment includes the ownership, operation and development of multi-family properties. The Other Assets segment includes the ownership and operation of the Trust's other real estate assets and a real estate loan. As of December 31, 2016, the Trust owned 30 multi-family properties with 8,624 units located in 11 states (including 271 units at a property in the lease up stage), and interests in two unconsolidated joint ventures. The Trust also owns and operates various other real estate assets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BRT Apartments (BRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.8
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -31.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 442.8%
Total Debt to Equity 442.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.6%
EBITDA Margin 90.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.9%
Operating Margin -14.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 34.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Net Profit Margin 13.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Effective Tax Rate 2.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

BRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BRT Apartments. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of BRT Apartments. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13%, whose default value for BRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BRT Apartments, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BRT Apartments.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for BRT Apartments.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BRT Apartments. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BRT are equal to 784.4%.

Life of production assets of 26 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BRT Apartments operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BRT is equal to -11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $166 million for BRT Apartments - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.915 million for BRT Apartments is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BRT Apartments at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New York apartment company expands holdings in metro Atlanta   [Feb-22-18 05:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Winning Stocks for Best Stretch of Growth Since 09   [Jan-29-18 11:05AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ REIT Industry Stock Outlook - January 2018   [Jan-11-18 04:00PM  Zacks]
▶ BRT reports 4Q results   [Dec-14-17 04:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ BRT reports 3Q results   [Aug-08-17 11:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to BRT Apartments Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ BRT reports 2Q results   [May-10-17 07:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ BRT reports 1Q results   [Feb-08-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ BRT posts 4Q profit   [Dec-13-16 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ BRT Realty Trust Completes Six Multi-Family Transactions   [Dec-12-16 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ BRT Realty Trust Announces Multi-Family Transactions   [Oct-27-16 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About SCYNEXIS Inc (SCYX)   [Nov-27  06:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ This Metric Says To Be Wary Of BRT Realty Trust (BRT)   [Nov-23  02:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for BRT Realty Trust   [Aug-08  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of BRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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