Intrinsic value of Black Stone Minerals - BSM

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$16.28

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$16.28

 
Intrinsic value

$0.93

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BSM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -33.59
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  646
  676
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  331
  339
  348
  358
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  439
  456
  474
  494
  515
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  733
  768
  804
  842
  883
  925
  970
  1,017
  1,066
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  233
  331
  339
  348
  358
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  439
  456
  474
  494
  515
  537
  561
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  733
  768
  804
  842
  883
  925
  970
  1,017
  1,066
Operating income, $m
  27
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
EBITDA, $m
  129
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  20
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  20
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,129
  1,143
  1,169
  1,199
  1,233
  1,270
  1,311
  1,356
  1,404
  1,456
  1,512
  1,572
  1,635
  1,703
  1,776
  1,852
  1,933
  2,019
  2,110
  2,206
  2,307
  2,414
  2,527
  2,646
  2,771
  2,903
  3,042
  3,188
  3,342
  3,504
  3,674
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,119
  1,143
  1,169
  1,199
  1,233
  1,270
  1,311
  1,356
  1,404
  1,456
  1,512
  1,572
  1,635
  1,703
  1,776
  1,852
  1,933
  2,019
  2,110
  2,206
  2,307
  2,414
  2,527
  2,646
  2,771
  2,903
  3,042
  3,188
  3,342
  3,504
  3,674
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
Average production assets, $m
  992
  1,012
  1,035
  1,062
  1,092
  1,125
  1,161
  1,201
  1,243
  1,290
  1,339
  1,392
  1,448
  1,509
  1,573
  1,640
  1,712
  1,788
  1,869
  1,954
  2,044
  2,138
  2,238
  2,344
  2,454
  2,571
  2,694
  2,824
  2,960
  3,103
  3,254
Working capital, $m
  8
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Total debt, $m
  316
  324
  334
  345
  357
  370
  385
  401
  418
  437
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  580
  609
  640
  673
  707
  744
  782
  823
  866
  911
  958
  1,008
  1,061
  1,116
  1,175
  1,236
Total liabilities, $m
  403
  411
  421
  432
  444
  457
  472
  488
  505
  524
  544
  566
  589
  613
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  794
  831
  869
  910
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,203
  1,262
  1,323
Total equity, $m
  726
  731
  748
  767
  789
  813
  839
  868
  899
  932
  968
  1,006
  1,047
  1,090
  1,136
  1,185
  1,237
  1,292
  1,350
  1,412
  1,477
  1,545
  1,617
  1,694
  1,774
  1,858
  1,947
  2,041
  2,139
  2,243
  2,352
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,129
  1,142
  1,169
  1,199
  1,233
  1,270
  1,311
  1,356
  1,404
  1,456
  1,512
  1,572
  1,636
  1,703
  1,775
  1,852
  1,933
  2,019
  2,110
  2,206
  2,308
  2,414
  2,527
  2,647
  2,772
  2,903
  3,042
  3,189
  3,342
  3,505
  3,675
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.435
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  102
  104
  107
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
Funds from operations, $m
  143
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
Change in working capital, $m
  -54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  197
  80
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -102
  -104
  -107
  -109
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -184
  -193
  -201
  -211
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -320
New CAPEX, $m
  -222
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -222
  -122
  -127
  -134
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -407
  -427
  -448
  -471
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -42
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -388
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  250
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -46
  39
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  171
  179
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  203
  47
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  193
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  303
  319
  335
  352
  370
  388
  408
  429
  450
  473
  497
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  179
  -33
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -311
  -327
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  185
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -109
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.8
  95.6
  92.4
  89.3
  86.2
  83.1
  80.1
  77.1
  74.2
  71.4
  68.6
  65.9
  63.4
  60.8
  58.4
  56.1
  53.8
  51.6
  49.5
  47.4
  45.5
  43.6
  41.8
  40.0
  38.4
  36.8
  35.2
  33.7
  32.3
  30.9

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns oil and natural gas mineral interests in the United States. The company owns mineral interests in approximately 14.6 million acres; nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.3 million acres; and overriding royalty interests in 1.4 million acres in the Bakken/Three Forks, Eagle Ford Shale, Wolfcamp, Haynesville/Bossier, and Fayetteville Shale plays, as well as in the Lower Wilcox and Canyon Lime plays located in 41 states and in 61 onshore basins in the continental United States. It also owns other working interests, unrelated to mineral and royalty assets primarily in the Anadarko Basin, as well as in Permian and Powder River Basins. As of December 31, 2015, the company had a total estimated proved oil and natural gas reserves of 49,788 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. Black Stone Minerals, L.P. was founded in 1876 and is based in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Black Stone Minerals (BSM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 155.4
Price to Sales 11.9
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -124.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -33.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 89.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 43.5%
Total Debt to Equity 43.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.8%
EBITDA Margin 49.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 910%

BSM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BSM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Black Stone Minerals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Black Stone Minerals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BSM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BSM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Black Stone Minerals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Black Stone Minerals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BSM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 124.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BSM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Black Stone Minerals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Black Stone Minerals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BSM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BSM are equal to 380.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Black Stone Minerals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BSM is equal to -0.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $726 million for Black Stone Minerals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.245 million for Black Stone Minerals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Black Stone Minerals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.


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Stock chart of BSM Financial statements of BSM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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