Intrinsic value of BioTime - BTX

Previous Close

$2.59

  Intrinsic Value

$0.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$2.59

 
Intrinsic value

$0.25

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  16
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
EBITDA, $m
  -5
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  34
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  143
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  394
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  394
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.050
  0.049
  0.048
  0.047
  0.053
  0.051
  0.050
  0.048
  0.053
  0.051
  0.049
  0.048
  0.051
  0.049
  0.053
  0.051
  0.048
  0.051
  0.049
  0.051
  0.049
  0.050
  0.052
  0.049
  0.051
  0.051
  0.049
  0.050
  0.050
  0.051
  0.051
Average production assets, $m
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
Working capital, $m
  17
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Total debt, $m
  4
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
Total liabilities, $m
  25
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Total equity, $m
  118
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  143
  122
  125
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  175
  182
  190
  199
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  394
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.034
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  -43
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -42
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -191
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  33
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  33
  60
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -20
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -36
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -35
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.8
  65.3
  52.6
  42.4
  34.1
  27.4
  22.0
  17.6
  14.1
  11.3
  9.0
  7.2
  5.8
  4.6
  3.7
  2.9
  2.4
  1.9
  1.5
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1

BioTime, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing products addressing degenerative diseases. Its clinical programs are based on two platform technologies: pluripotent stem cells and cell/drug delivery platform technologies. The foundation of its cell delivery platform is its HyStem cell and drug delivery matrix technology. Its clinical programs are targeting three primary sectors, aesthetics, ophthalmology and cell/drug delivery. Its facial aesthetics product, Renevia, is a potential treatment for facial lipoatrophy. It is in a pivotal clinical trial in Europe to assess its safety and efficacy in restoring normal skin contours in patients whose subcutaneous fat, or adipose tissue, has been lost due to the use of certain drugs often used to treat patients with human immune virus. OpRegen is its lead product for ophthalmological disorders. It is a suspension of retinal pigment epithelial cells that are derived from pluripotent stem cells.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BioTime (BTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.8
Price to Sales 44.4
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 23
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.5%
Total Debt to Equity 3.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 28.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Return On Total Capital 44.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -76.8%
Return On Equity 46.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -81.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.6%
EBITDA Margin 400%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -424.8%
Operating Margin -166.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -709.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 316.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -534.4%
Net Profit Margin 566.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -274.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

BTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BioTime. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BioTime. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BioTime, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BioTime.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1050%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for BioTime.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BioTime. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BTX are equal to 450%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BioTime operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BTX is equal to -83.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $118 million for BioTime - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 120.492 million for BioTime is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BioTime at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
PFE Pfizer 36.40 28.44  sell
GE General Electr 22.32 23.56  hold
AST Asterias Bioth 2.65 0.19  str.sell
GERN Geron 2.03 0.19  str.sell
BAX Baxter Interna 64.12 11.18  str.sell
EXAS EXACT Sciences 48.98 0.70  str.sell
SNY Sanofi ADR 49.62 48.60  hold
TECH Bio-Techne 123.88 84.63  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to BioTime, Inc. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:37AM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime to Present at the Cell and Gene Meeting on the Mesa   [Oct-03-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to BioTime, Inc. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:05AM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime Awarded Grant from the NIH   [Sep-18-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to BioTime, Inc. : September 12, 2017   [Sep-11-17 09:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime to Present at the LD Micro San Francisco Summit   [Sep-05-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ AgeX Therapeutics Closes $10 Million Capital Raise   [Aug-17-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ BioTime reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Biotime Expands & Advances Ophthalmology Portfolio   [Jun-19-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to BioTime, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime posts 1Q profit   [May-10-17 04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ BioTime to Present Additional Data at Upcoming ARVO   [Apr-24-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to BioTime, Inc. : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime, Inc.: Strong price momentum but will it sustain?   [Mar-20-17 11:03AM  Capital Cube]
▶ BioTime Reports $56M Non-Cash Gain On Deconsolidation   [Feb-22-17 10:45AM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of BTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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