Intrinsic value of Burlington Stores - BURL

Previous Close

$88.43

  Intrinsic Value

$22.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

  Value-price divergence*

-36%

Previous close

$88.43

 
Intrinsic value

$22.99

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-36%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BURL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.99
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  5,591
  6,072
  6,572
  7,092
  7,633
  8,195
  8,779
  9,386
  10,017
  10,673
  11,355
  12,066
  12,805
  13,576
  14,379
  15,216
  16,090
  17,002
  17,954
  18,949
  19,988
  21,075
  22,212
  23,401
  24,646
  25,949
  27,313
  28,743
  30,240
  31,809
  33,453
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,954
  5,362
  5,786
  6,227
  6,685
  7,161
  7,656
  8,170
  8,705
  9,261
  9,836
  10,438
  11,066
  11,721
  12,404
  13,116
  13,859
  14,635
  15,446
  16,293
  17,179
  18,106
  19,076
  20,090
  21,152
  22,265
  23,430
  24,650
  25,929
  27,270
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  685
  702
  719
  737
  756
  775
  794
  814
  834
  855
  876
  898
  921
  944
  967
  992
  1,016
  1,042
  1,068
  1,095
  1,122
  1,150
  1,179
  1,208
  1,238
  1,269
  1,301
  1,334
  1,367
  1,401
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,212
  5,639
  6,064
  6,505
  6,964
  7,441
  7,936
  8,450
  8,984
  9,539
  10,116
  10,712
  11,336
  11,987
  12,665
  13,371
  14,108
  14,875
  15,677
  16,514
  17,388
  18,301
  19,256
  20,255
  21,298
  22,390
  23,534
  24,731
  25,984
  27,296
  28,671
Operating income, $m
  379
  433
  508
  587
  669
  754
  843
  936
  1,033
  1,134
  1,239
  1,354
  1,469
  1,589
  1,714
  1,845
  1,982
  2,126
  2,277
  2,435
  2,600
  2,774
  2,956
  3,147
  3,347
  3,558
  3,779
  4,012
  4,256
  4,513
  4,782
EBITDA, $m
  563
  631
  723
  818
  917
  1,020
  1,128
  1,240
  1,357
  1,479
  1,606
  1,739
  1,877
  2,022
  2,173
  2,331
  2,496
  2,669
  2,850
  3,039
  3,238
  3,446
  3,664
  3,893
  4,134
  4,386
  4,651
  4,929
  5,221
  5,527
  5,850
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  49
  40
  49
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  170
  184
  198
  213
  229
  245
  263
  280
  299
  319
  339
  361
  383
  407
  431
  457
  484
Earnings before tax, $m
  333
  384
  468
  538
  611
  687
  766
  849
  935
  1,025
  1,119
  1,222
  1,325
  1,432
  1,544
  1,661
  1,784
  1,913
  2,048
  2,189
  2,337
  2,493
  2,656
  2,828
  3,008
  3,197
  3,396
  3,605
  3,824
  4,055
  4,298
Tax expense, $m
  117
  104
  126
  145
  165
  185
  207
  229
  253
  277
  302
  330
  358
  387
  417
  449
  482
  516
  553
  591
  631
  673
  717
  764
  812
  863
  917
  973
  1,033
  1,095
  1,160
Net income, $m
  216
  281
  342
  393
  446
  501
  559
  620
  683
  749
  817
  892
  967
  1,045
  1,127
  1,213
  1,302
  1,396
  1,495
  1,598
  1,706
  1,820
  1,939
  2,064
  2,196
  2,334
  2,479
  2,632
  2,792
  2,960
  3,138

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,574
  2,706
  2,929
  3,161
  3,402
  3,652
  3,912
  4,183
  4,464
  4,756
  5,060
  5,377
  5,706
  6,050
  6,408
  6,781
  7,170
  7,576
  8,001
  8,444
  8,907
  9,392
  9,898
  10,428
  10,983
  11,564
  12,172
  12,809
  13,476
  14,175
  14,908
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,492
  2,706
  2,929
  3,161
  3,402
  3,652
  3,912
  4,183
  4,464
  4,756
  5,060
  5,377
  5,706
  6,050
  6,408
  6,781
  7,170
  7,576
  8,001
  8,444
  8,907
  9,392
  9,898
  10,428
  10,983
  11,564
  12,172
  12,809
  13,476
  14,175
  14,908
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
Average production assets, $m
  1,499
  1,627
  1,761
  1,901
  2,046
  2,196
  2,353
  2,515
  2,685
  2,860
  3,043
  3,234
  3,432
  3,638
  3,854
  4,078
  4,312
  4,556
  4,812
  5,078
  5,357
  5,648
  5,953
  6,271
  6,605
  6,954
  7,320
  7,703
  8,104
  8,525
  8,965
Working capital, $m
  -69
  -164
  -177
  -191
  -206
  -221
  -237
  -253
  -270
  -288
  -307
  -326
  -346
  -367
  -388
  -411
  -434
  -459
  -485
  -512
  -540
  -569
  -600
  -632
  -665
  -701
  -737
  -776
  -816
  -859
  -903
Total debt, $m
  1,130
  941
  1,142
  1,351
  1,567
  1,793
  2,027
  2,270
  2,523
  2,787
  3,060
  3,345
  3,642
  3,951
  4,273
  4,609
  4,959
  5,325
  5,707
  6,106
  6,523
  6,959
  7,414
  7,891
  8,391
  8,913
  9,461
  10,034
  10,634
  11,264
  11,923
Total liabilities, $m
  2,624
  2,435
  2,636
  2,845
  3,061
  3,287
  3,521
  3,764
  4,017
  4,281
  4,554
  4,839
  5,136
  5,445
  5,767
  6,103
  6,453
  6,819
  7,201
  7,600
  8,017
  8,453
  8,908
  9,385
  9,885
  10,407
  10,955
  11,528
  12,128
  12,758
  13,417
Total equity, $m
  -50
  271
  293
  316
  340
  365
  391
  418
  446
  476
  506
  538
  571
  605
  641
  678
  717
  758
  800
  844
  891
  939
  990
  1,043
  1,098
  1,156
  1,217
  1,281
  1,348
  1,418
  1,491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,574
  2,706
  2,929
  3,161
  3,401
  3,652
  3,912
  4,182
  4,463
  4,757
  5,060
  5,377
  5,707
  6,050
  6,408
  6,781
  7,170
  7,577
  8,001
  8,444
  8,908
  9,392
  9,898
  10,428
  10,983
  11,563
  12,172
  12,809
  13,476
  14,176
  14,908
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -22.600
  3.480
  3.900
  4.270
  4.610
  4.910
  5.180
  5.430
  5.650
  5.860
  6.050
  6.220
  6.380
  6.530
  6.670
  6.800
  6.920
  7.030
  7.130
  7.230
  7.320
  7.410
  7.490
  7.570
  7.640
  7.710
  7.770
  7.830
  7.890
  7.950
  8.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.053
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  216
  281
  342
  393
  446
  501
  559
  620
  683
  749
  817
  892
  967
  1,045
  1,127
  1,213
  1,302
  1,396
  1,495
  1,598
  1,706
  1,820
  1,939
  2,064
  2,196
  2,334
  2,479
  2,632
  2,792
  2,960
  3,138
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  184
  198
  214
  231
  248
  266
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  385
  409
  433
  459
  485
  513
  542
  573
  605
  638
  672
  709
  747
  786
  828
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,067
Funds from operations, $m
  791
  479
  556
  624
  694
  768
  844
  924
  1,007
  1,094
  1,184
  1,277
  1,376
  1,478
  1,586
  1,698
  1,816
  1,939
  2,068
  2,203
  2,344
  2,492
  2,648
  2,811
  2,982
  3,162
  3,350
  3,549
  3,757
  3,975
  4,205
Change in working capital, $m
  189
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from operations, $m
  602
  492
  569
  638
  709
  783
  860
  940
  1,024
  1,111
  1,203
  1,296
  1,396
  1,499
  1,608
  1,721
  1,839
  1,963
  2,093
  2,229
  2,372
  2,522
  2,679
  2,843
  3,016
  3,197
  3,387
  3,587
  3,797
  4,018
  4,249
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -178
  -194
  -210
  -226
  -244
  -261
  -280
  -299
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -409
  -433
  -459
  -485
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -709
  -747
  -786
  -828
  -871
  -917
  -965
  -1,015
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -366
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -441
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -180
  -307
  -328
  -349
  -371
  -395
  -418
  -443
  -468
  -496
  -524
  -552
  -583
  -615
  -648
  -683
  -719
  -757
  -797
  -840
  -884
  -929
  -977
  -1,028
  -1,081
  -1,135
  -1,194
  -1,254
  -1,318
  -1,385
  -1,456
Free cash flow, $m
  422
  185
  242
  289
  338
  389
  442
  498
  556
  616
  679
  744
  812
  884
  959
  1,038
  1,120
  1,206
  1,296
  1,390
  1,489
  1,593
  1,701
  1,816
  1,936
  2,061
  2,194
  2,333
  2,479
  2,632
  2,794
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -170
  -187
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  523
  547
  573
  601
  629
  660
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -198
  120
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -361
  -67
  201
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  523
  547
  573
  601
  629
  660
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  118
  442
  497
  554
  614
  676
  741
  809
  879
  953
  1,029
  1,109
  1,193
  1,281
  1,374
  1,470
  1,571
  1,678
  1,789
  1,906
  2,029
  2,157
  2,293
  2,435
  2,584
  2,741
  2,906
  3,079
  3,262
  3,453
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -401
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -203
  420
  474
  530
  589
  650
  714
  780
  850
  922
  997
  1,076
  1,159
  1,246
  1,336
  1,431
  1,531
  1,635
  1,745
  1,860
  1,980
  2,107
  2,240
  2,379
  2,526
  2,680
  2,842
  3,013
  3,192
  3,380
Discount rate, %
 
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -183
  340
  340
  334
  321
  304
  282
  257
  229
  201
  173
  146
  120
  97
  77
  59
  44
  33
  23
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a retailer of branded apparel. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 592 retail stores, inclusive of an Internet store, in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Its product categories include coats, women, men, juniors, girls, boys, shoes, handbags and accessories, beauty and fragrance, home and toys. The product categories for coats include women's coats and jackets, men's coats and jackets, juniors coats and jackets, girls coats and jackets, boy's coats and jackets, baby girl coats and jackets, and baby boy coats and jackets. The product categories for women include active wear, bottoms, coats and jackets, dresses, tops, scrubs, suit and suit separates, sweaters, swimwear and cover-ups. It also includes accessories, beauty and fragrance, handbags, jewelry, shoes and watches. The product categories for men include accessories, active wear, casual button down shirts, dress shirts, men's coats jackets, fleece, graphic tees, hoodies and sweatshirts, and jeans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Burlington Stores (BURL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book -124.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 15
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2256%
Total Debt to Equity -2260%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 19%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity -289.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -177.6%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

BURL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BURL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5591 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Burlington Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Burlington Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BURL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for BURL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Burlington Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Burlington Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BURL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $668 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BURL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Burlington Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Burlington Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BURL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BURL are equal to 26.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Burlington Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BURL is equal to -2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-50 million for Burlington Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.528 million for Burlington Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Burlington Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.2 billion.

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Financial statements of BURL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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