Intrinsic value of Burlington Stores - BURL

Previous Close

$154.65

  Intrinsic Value

$117.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$154.65

 
Intrinsic value

$117.82

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of BURL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.99
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  5,591
  6,678
  7,271
  7,887
  8,529
  9,196
  9,889
  10,610
  11,358
  12,137
  12,946
  13,787
  14,662
  15,574
  16,523
  17,511
  18,542
  19,617
  20,738
  21,909
  23,132
  24,409
  25,744
  27,141
  28,601
  30,129
  31,729
  33,403
  35,157
  36,994
  38,919
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,413
  5,891
  6,388
  6,906
  7,444
  8,003
  8,584
  9,187
  9,815
  10,467
  11,117
  11,823
  12,558
  13,323
  14,120
  14,951
  15,818
  16,722
  17,666
  18,652
  19,682
  20,759
  21,884
  23,062
  24,294
  25,584
  26,934
  28,348
  29,830
  31,381
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  692
  707
  723
  739
  755
  771
  788
  806
  823
  842
  860
  879
  898
  918
  938
  959
  980
  1,002
  1,024
  1,046
  1,069
  1,093
  1,117
  1,141
  1,166
  1,192
  1,218
  1,245
  1,273
  1,301
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,212
  6,105
  6,598
  7,111
  7,645
  8,199
  8,774
  9,372
  9,993
  10,638
  11,309
  11,977
  12,702
  13,456
  14,241
  15,058
  15,910
  16,798
  17,724
  18,690
  19,698
  20,751
  21,852
  23,001
  24,203
  25,460
  26,776
  28,152
  29,593
  31,103
  32,682
Operating income, $m
  379
  573
  672
  776
  885
  998
  1,115
  1,238
  1,365
  1,498
  1,637
  1,810
  1,961
  2,118
  2,282
  2,453
  2,632
  2,819
  3,015
  3,219
  3,434
  3,658
  3,893
  4,139
  4,398
  4,669
  4,953
  5,251
  5,564
  5,892
  6,237
EBITDA, $m
  563
  752
  865
  982
  1,105
  1,233
  1,366
  1,505
  1,650
  1,800
  1,957
  2,120
  2,290
  2,468
  2,653
  2,847
  3,049
  3,260
  3,481
  3,712
  3,954
  4,207
  4,472
  4,750
  5,041
  5,346
  5,667
  6,002
  6,355
  6,724
  7,112
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  61
  63
  76
  90
  105
  119
  135
  151
  168
  185
  203
  222
  242
  262
  283
  305
  329
  353
  378
  404
  431
  460
  490
  521
  554
  588
  624
  661
  700
  741
Earnings before tax, $m
  333
  512
  609
  700
  795
  893
  996
  1,103
  1,214
  1,331
  1,452
  1,607
  1,738
  1,876
  2,020
  2,170
  2,326
  2,490
  2,662
  2,842
  3,030
  3,227
  3,433
  3,650
  3,877
  4,115
  4,365
  4,627
  4,902
  5,192
  5,495
Tax expense, $m
  117
  138
  165
  189
  215
  241
  269
  298
  328
  359
  392
  434
  469
  507
  545
  586
  628
  672
  719
  767
  818
  871
  927
  985
  1,047
  1,111
  1,178
  1,249
  1,324
  1,402
  1,484
Net income, $m
  216
  374
  445
  511
  580
  652
  727
  805
  887
  971
  1,060
  1,173
  1,269
  1,369
  1,474
  1,584
  1,698
  1,818
  1,943
  2,074
  2,212
  2,356
  2,506
  2,664
  2,830
  3,004
  3,186
  3,378
  3,579
  3,790
  4,012

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,574
  3,075
  3,347
  3,631
  3,927
  4,234
  4,553
  4,885
  5,230
  5,588
  5,960
  6,348
  6,751
  7,170
  7,607
  8,062
  8,537
  9,032
  9,548
  10,087
  10,650
  11,238
  11,853
  12,496
  13,168
  13,872
  14,608
  15,379
  16,186
  17,032
  17,918
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,492
  3,075
  3,347
  3,631
  3,927
  4,234
  4,553
  4,885
  5,230
  5,588
  5,960
  6,348
  6,751
  7,170
  7,607
  8,062
  8,537
  9,032
  9,548
  10,087
  10,650
  11,238
  11,853
  12,496
  13,168
  13,872
  14,608
  15,379
  16,186
  17,032
  17,918
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.244
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
  2.172
Average production assets, $m
  1,499
  1,503
  1,636
  1,775
  1,919
  2,069
  2,225
  2,387
  2,556
  2,731
  2,913
  3,102
  3,299
  3,504
  3,718
  3,940
  4,172
  4,414
  4,666
  4,930
  5,205
  5,492
  5,792
  6,107
  6,435
  6,779
  7,139
  7,516
  7,910
  8,324
  8,757
Working capital, $m
  -69
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
Total debt, $m
  1,130
  1,168
  1,414
  1,669
  1,935
  2,212
  2,499
  2,797
  3,108
  3,430
  3,765
  4,114
  4,477
  4,854
  5,248
  5,657
  6,084
  6,530
  6,994
  7,479
  7,986
  8,515
  9,069
  9,647
  10,252
  10,886
  11,548
  12,242
  12,969
  13,730
  14,528
Total liabilities, $m
  2,624
  2,767
  3,013
  3,268
  3,534
  3,811
  4,098
  4,396
  4,707
  5,029
  5,364
  5,713
  6,076
  6,453
  6,846
  7,256
  7,683
  8,128
  8,593
  9,078
  9,585
  10,114
  10,668
  11,246
  11,851
  12,485
  13,147
  13,841
  14,568
  15,329
  16,126
Total equity, $m
  -50
  307
  335
  363
  393
  423
  455
  488
  523
  559
  596
  635
  675
  717
  761
  806
  854
  903
  955
  1,009
  1,065
  1,124
  1,185
  1,250
  1,317
  1,387
  1,461
  1,538
  1,619
  1,703
  1,792
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,574
  3,074
  3,348
  3,631
  3,927
  4,234
  4,553
  4,884
  5,230
  5,588
  5,960
  6,348
  6,751
  7,170
  7,607
  8,062
  8,537
  9,031
  9,548
  10,087
  10,650
  11,238
  11,853
  12,496
  13,168
  13,872
  14,608
  15,379
  16,187
  17,032
  17,918
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -22.600
  3.800
  4.220
  4.600
  4.930
  5.220
  5.490
  5.730
  5.940
  6.140
  6.320
  6.480
  6.630
  6.770
  6.900
  7.020
  7.130
  7.230
  7.330
  7.410
  7.500
  7.580
  7.650
  7.720
  7.790
  7.850
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.053
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  216
  374
  445
  511
  580
  652
  727
  805
  887
  971
  1,060
  1,173
  1,269
  1,369
  1,474
  1,584
  1,698
  1,818
  1,943
  2,074
  2,212
  2,356
  2,506
  2,664
  2,830
  3,004
  3,186
  3,378
  3,579
  3,790
  4,012
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  184
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  302
  320
  310
  330
  350
  372
  394
  417
  441
  467
  493
  520
  549
  579
  611
  644
  678
  714
  752
  791
  832
  876
Funds from operations, $m
  791
  553
  637
  717
  800
  887
  978
  1,072
  1,171
  1,273
  1,380
  1,483
  1,599
  1,720
  1,846
  1,978
  2,115
  2,259
  2,410
  2,567
  2,732
  2,905
  3,086
  3,275
  3,474
  3,682
  3,900
  4,129
  4,370
  4,622
  4,887
Change in working capital, $m
  189
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  602
  551
  635
  715
  798
  885
  976
  1,070
  1,168
  1,271
  1,377
  1,481
  1,596
  1,717
  1,843
  1,975
  2,112
  2,256
  2,407
  2,564
  2,728
  2,901
  3,081
  3,271
  3,469
  3,677
  3,895
  4,124
  4,365
  4,617
  4,881
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -138
  -150
  -164
  -177
  -192
  -207
  -223
  -239
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -310
  -330
  -350
  -372
  -394
  -417
  -441
  -467
  -493
  -520
  -549
  -579
  -611
  -644
  -678
  -714
  -752
  -791
  -832
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -125
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -413
  -433
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -180
  -263
  -283
  -303
  -321
  -342
  -363
  -385
  -407
  -431
  -455
  -480
  -507
  -535
  -564
  -594
  -626
  -659
  -693
  -730
  -768
  -807
  -849
  -893
  -940
  -988
  -1,038
  -1,091
  -1,147
  -1,204
  -1,265
Free cash flow, $m
  422
  288
  352
  413
  477
  543
  613
  686
  761
  840
  922
  1,000
  1,089
  1,182
  1,279
  1,381
  1,487
  1,597
  1,713
  1,834
  1,960
  2,093
  2,232
  2,377
  2,530
  2,690
  2,858
  3,034
  3,218
  3,412
  3,616
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -170
  41
  245
  256
  266
  276
  287
  299
  310
  322
  335
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  427
  445
  465
  485
  507
  529
  553
  579
  605
  633
  663
  694
  727
  761
  797
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -361
  41
  245
  256
  266
  276
  287
  299
  310
  322
  335
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  427
  445
  465
  485
  507
  529
  553
  579
  605
  633
  663
  694
  727
  761
  797
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  329
  597
  668
  743
  820
  900
  984
  1,071
  1,162
  1,257
  1,349
  1,452
  1,560
  1,672
  1,790
  1,914
  2,043
  2,178
  2,319
  2,467
  2,622
  2,785
  2,956
  3,135
  3,323
  3,520
  3,728
  3,945
  4,174
  4,413
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -220
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  570
  640
  713
  789
  868
  951
  1,037
  1,127
  1,220
  1,310
  1,412
  1,518
  1,629
  1,745
  1,866
  1,993
  2,126
  2,265
  2,411
  2,564
  2,724
  2,892
  3,068
  3,253
  3,447
  3,650
  3,864
  4,089
  4,325
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  102
  501
  523
  538
  546
  546
  539
  526
  506
  480
  447
  413
  377
  338
  299
  260
  223
  188
  155
  126
  100
  78
  59
  44
  32
  23
  16
  10
  7
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a retailer of branded apparel. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 592 retail stores, inclusive of an Internet store, in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Its product categories include coats, women, men, juniors, girls, boys, shoes, handbags and accessories, beauty and fragrance, home and toys. The product categories for coats include women's coats and jackets, men's coats and jackets, juniors coats and jackets, girls coats and jackets, boy's coats and jackets, baby girl coats and jackets, and baby boy coats and jackets. The product categories for women include active wear, bottoms, coats and jackets, dresses, tops, scrubs, suit and suit separates, sweaters, swimwear and cover-ups. It also includes accessories, beauty and fragrance, handbags, jewelry, shoes and watches. The product categories for men include accessories, active wear, casual button down shirts, dress shirts, men's coats jackets, fleece, graphic tees, hoodies and sweatshirts, and jeans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Burlington Stores (BURL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 50.2
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book -217.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2256%
Total Debt to Equity -2260%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 19%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity -289.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -177.6%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

BURL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BURL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6110 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Burlington Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Burlington Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BURL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for BURL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Burlington Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Burlington Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BURL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $677 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BURL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Burlington Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Burlington Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BURL stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BURL are equal to 22.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Burlington Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BURL is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $87 million for Burlington Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68 million for Burlington Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Burlington Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.5 billion.

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Financial statements of BURL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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