Intrinsic value of Burlington Stores - BURL

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$95.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$95.90

 
Intrinsic value

$26.30

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BURL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.99
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  5,591
  6,105
  6,641
  7,199
  7,780
  8,383
  9,010
  9,662
  10,339
  11,043
  11,775
  12,536
  13,328
  14,153
  15,011
  15,906
  16,839
  17,812
  18,827
  19,887
  20,994
  22,151
  23,361
  24,625
  25,948
  27,333
  28,782
  30,299
  31,888
  33,552
  35,296
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,951
  5,385
  5,837
  6,308
  6,796
  7,304
  7,832
  8,381
  8,951
  9,544
  10,156
  10,798
  11,466
  12,161
  12,886
  13,642
  14,430
  15,253
  16,112
  17,009
  17,946
  18,926
  19,951
  21,022
  22,144
  23,318
  24,547
  25,834
  27,183
  28,596
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  710
  728
  746
  765
  784
  804
  824
  844
  865
  887
  909
  932
  955
  979
  1,004
  1,029
  1,054
  1,081
  1,108
  1,136
  1,164
  1,193
  1,223
  1,253
  1,285
  1,317
  1,350
  1,384
  1,418
  1,454
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,212
  5,661
  6,113
  6,583
  7,073
  7,580
  8,108
  8,656
  9,225
  9,816
  10,431
  11,065
  11,730
  12,421
  13,140
  13,890
  14,671
  15,484
  16,334
  17,220
  18,145
  19,110
  20,119
  21,174
  22,275
  23,429
  24,635
  25,897
  27,218
  28,601
  30,050
Operating income, $m
  379
  444
  528
  616
  707
  803
  902
  1,006
  1,114
  1,226
  1,344
  1,471
  1,598
  1,731
  1,871
  2,016
  2,168
  2,327
  2,493
  2,668
  2,850
  3,041
  3,242
  3,452
  3,673
  3,904
  4,147
  4,402
  4,670
  4,951
  5,247
EBITDA, $m
  563
  644
  745
  850
  960
  1,075
  1,194
  1,319
  1,448
  1,583
  1,724
  1,871
  2,023
  2,183
  2,349
  2,523
  2,705
  2,895
  3,094
  3,302
  3,520
  3,748
  3,987
  4,238
  4,500
  4,776
  5,065
  5,369
  5,687
  6,022
  6,373
Interest expense (income), $m
  52
  49
  41
  50
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  114
  126
  139
  152
  166
  180
  195
  210
  226
  243
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
  360
  383
  407
  432
  458
  486
  514
Earnings before tax, $m
  333
  396
  487
  565
  647
  733
  822
  915
  1,011
  1,112
  1,217
  1,332
  1,446
  1,566
  1,691
  1,821
  1,958
  2,101
  2,250
  2,407
  2,571
  2,743
  2,924
  3,113
  3,312
  3,521
  3,740
  3,970
  4,212
  4,466
  4,733
Tax expense, $m
  117
  107
  131
  153
  175
  198
  222
  247
  273
  300
  329
  360
  390
  423
  456
  492
  529
  567
  608
  650
  694
  741
  789
  841
  894
  951
  1,010
  1,072
  1,137
  1,206
  1,278
Net income, $m
  216
  289
  355
  413
  473
  535
  600
  668
  738
  812
  889
  972
  1,056
  1,143
  1,234
  1,330
  1,429
  1,534
  1,643
  1,757
  1,877
  2,003
  2,135
  2,273
  2,418
  2,570
  2,730
  2,898
  3,075
  3,260
  3,455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,574
  2,721
  2,960
  3,208
  3,467
  3,736
  4,015
  4,306
  4,607
  4,921
  5,247
  5,586
  5,939
  6,307
  6,689
  7,088
  7,504
  7,938
  8,390
  8,862
  9,356
  9,871
  10,410
  10,974
  11,563
  12,180
  12,826
  13,502
  14,210
  14,952
  15,729
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,492
  2,721
  2,960
  3,208
  3,467
  3,736
  4,015
  4,306
  4,607
  4,921
  5,247
  5,586
  5,939
  6,307
  6,689
  7,088
  7,504
  7,938
  8,390
  8,862
  9,356
  9,871
  10,410
  10,974
  11,563
  12,180
  12,826
  13,502
  14,210
  14,952
  15,729
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
  2.244
Average production assets, $m
  1,499
  1,636
  1,780
  1,929
  2,085
  2,247
  2,415
  2,589
  2,771
  2,960
  3,156
  3,360
  3,572
  3,793
  4,023
  4,263
  4,513
  4,774
  5,046
  5,330
  5,627
  5,937
  6,261
  6,600
  6,954
  7,325
  7,714
  8,120
  8,546
  8,992
  9,459
Working capital, $m
  -69
  -165
  -179
  -194
  -210
  -226
  -243
  -261
  -279
  -298
  -318
  -338
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -429
  -455
  -481
  -508
  -537
  -567
  -598
  -631
  -665
  -701
  -738
  -777
  -818
  -861
  -906
  -953
Total debt, $m
  1,130
  955
  1,170
  1,393
  1,626
  1,868
  2,120
  2,381
  2,653
  2,935
  3,229
  3,534
  3,851
  4,182
  4,527
  4,885
  5,260
  5,650
  6,057
  6,482
  6,926
  7,390
  7,875
  8,383
  8,913
  9,468
  10,049
  10,658
  11,295
  11,963
  12,662
Total liabilities, $m
  2,624
  2,449
  2,664
  2,887
  3,120
  3,362
  3,614
  3,875
  4,147
  4,429
  4,723
  5,028
  5,345
  5,676
  6,021
  6,379
  6,754
  7,144
  7,551
  7,976
  8,420
  8,884
  9,369
  9,877
  10,407
  10,962
  11,543
  12,152
  12,789
  13,457
  14,156
Total equity, $m
  -50
  272
  296
  321
  347
  374
  402
  431
  461
  492
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  709
  750
  794
  839
  886
  936
  987
  1,041
  1,097
  1,156
  1,218
  1,283
  1,350
  1,421
  1,495
  1,573
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,574
  2,721
  2,960
  3,208
  3,467
  3,736
  4,016
  4,306
  4,608
  4,921
  5,248
  5,587
  5,939
  6,307
  6,690
  7,088
  7,504
  7,938
  8,390
  8,862
  9,356
  9,871
  10,410
  10,974
  11,563
  12,180
  12,826
  13,502
  14,210
  14,952
  15,729
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -22.600
  3.510
  3.950
  4.340
  4.690
  5.000
  5.280
  5.530
  5.760
  5.960
  6.150
  6.330
  6.480
  6.630
  6.770
  6.890
  7.010
  7.120
  7.220
  7.310
  7.400
  7.490
  7.560
  7.640
  7.710
  7.770
  7.840
  7.890
  7.950
  8.000
  8.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.053
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  216
  289
  355
  413
  473
  535
  600
  668
  738
  812
  889
  972
  1,056
  1,143
  1,234
  1,330
  1,429
  1,534
  1,643
  1,757
  1,877
  2,003
  2,135
  2,273
  2,418
  2,570
  2,730
  2,898
  3,075
  3,260
  3,455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  184
  199
  217
  234
  253
  272
  292
  313
  335
  357
  380
  400
  425
  452
  479
  507
  537
  568
  601
  634
  670
  707
  745
  786
  828
  872
  918
  967
  1,017
  1,070
  1,126
Funds from operations, $m
  791
  488
  572
  647
  725
  807
  892
  981
  1,073
  1,169
  1,269
  1,372
  1,481
  1,595
  1,713
  1,837
  1,966
  2,102
  2,243
  2,392
  2,547
  2,709
  2,880
  3,058
  3,246
  3,442
  3,648
  3,865
  4,092
  4,330
  4,581
Change in working capital, $m
  189
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from operations, $m
  602
  505
  587
  662
  741
  823
  909
  998
  1,091
  1,188
  1,289
  1,393
  1,502
  1,617
  1,736
  1,861
  1,992
  2,128
  2,271
  2,420
  2,577
  2,741
  2,912
  3,093
  3,281
  3,480
  3,688
  3,906
  4,135
  4,375
  4,628
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -178
  -195
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -287
  -308
  -330
  -352
  -376
  -400
  -425
  -452
  -479
  -507
  -537
  -568
  -601
  -634
  -670
  -707
  -745
  -786
  -828
  -872
  -918
  -967
  -1,017
  -1,070
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -407
  -426
  -446
  -467
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -180
  -316
  -339
  -362
  -386
  -410
  -435
  -462
  -489
  -519
  -548
  -580
  -612
  -646
  -682
  -719
  -757
  -798
  -840
  -885
  -931
  -980
  -1,031
  -1,084
  -1,141
  -1,199
  -1,260
  -1,325
  -1,393
  -1,463
  -1,537
Free cash flow, $m
  422
  188
  248
  301
  356
  413
  474
  536
  601
  669
  740
  813
  890
  971
  1,055
  1,142
  1,234
  1,330
  1,430
  1,536
  1,646
  1,761
  1,882
  2,008
  2,141
  2,281
  2,427
  2,581
  2,742
  2,912
  3,090
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -170
  -173
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  282
  294
  305
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  699
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -198
  307
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -361
  134
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  282
  294
  305
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  699
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  15
  463
  525
  589
  655
  725
  797
  873
  952
  1,034
  1,118
  1,208
  1,301
  1,399
  1,501
  1,608
  1,720
  1,838
  1,961
  2,090
  2,225
  2,367
  2,516
  2,672
  2,836
  3,008
  3,189
  3,380
  3,580
  3,790
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -402
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  439
  500
  563
  629
  697
  768
  843
  920
  1,001
  1,084
  1,173
  1,265
  1,361
  1,461
  1,567
  1,677
  1,792
  1,913
  2,040
  2,173
  2,313
  2,459
  2,613
  2,774
  2,944
  3,122
  3,309
  3,505
  3,712
Discount rate, %
 
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  356
  359
  354
  343
  326
  303
  277
  248
  218
  188
  159
  131
  106
  84
  65
  49
  36
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women’s ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, baby products, footwear, accessories, home décor and gifts, and coats. As of August 25, 2016, it operated 570 stores in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in Burlington, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Burlington Stores (BURL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.2
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book -134.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 41
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2256%
Total Debt to Equity -2260%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 19%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Equity -289.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -177.6%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.5%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

BURL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BURL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5591 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Burlington Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Burlington Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BURL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for BURL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Burlington Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Burlington Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BURL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $693 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BURL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Burlington Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Burlington Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BURL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BURL are equal to 26.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Burlington Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BURL is equal to -2.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-50 million for Burlington Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.894 million for Burlington Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Burlington Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.


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Stock chart of BURL Financial statements of BURL Annual reports of BURL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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