Intrinsic value of Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR - BVN

Previous Close

$14.78

  Intrinsic Value

$2.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

-82%

Previous close

$14.78

 
Intrinsic value

$2.57

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-82%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,069
  1,090
  1,115
  1,144
  1,176
  1,212
  1,251
  1,294
  1,340
  1,390
  1,443
  1,500
  1,561
  1,626
  1,694
  1,768
  1,845
  1,927
  2,014
  2,105
  2,202
  2,304
  2,412
  2,525
  2,645
  2,771
  2,903
  3,043
  3,190
  3,344
  3,507
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,258
  1,287
  1,320
  1,357
  1,399
  1,444
  1,493
  1,546
  1,604
  1,665
  1,731
  1,801
  1,876
  1,955
  2,040
  2,129
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,052
  3,197
  3,350
  3,511
  3,681
  3,859
  4,047
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  937
  1,258
  1,287
  1,320
  1,357
  1,399
  1,444
  1,493
  1,546
  1,604
  1,665
  1,731
  1,801
  1,876
  1,955
  2,040
  2,129
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,052
  3,197
  3,350
  3,511
  3,681
  3,859
  4,047
Operating income, $m
  132
  -168
  -172
  -176
  -181
  -187
  -193
  -199
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -389
  -407
  -427
  -447
  -469
  -491
  -515
  -540
EBITDA, $m
  132
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Interest expense (income), $m
  -34
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  -255
  -188
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -662
Tax expense, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -323
  -188
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -662

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,266
  4,276
  4,374
  4,487
  4,613
  4,753
  4,906
  5,073
  5,254
  5,449
  5,658
  5,882
  6,121
  6,375
  6,645
  6,932
  7,235
  7,557
  7,897
  8,256
  8,636
  9,036
  9,458
  9,903
  10,372
  10,866
  11,385
  11,933
  12,508
  13,114
  13,751
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,185
  4,276
  4,374
  4,487
  4,613
  4,753
  4,906
  5,073
  5,254
  5,449
  5,658
  5,882
  6,121
  6,375
  6,645
  6,932
  7,235
  7,557
  7,897
  8,256
  8,636
  9,036
  9,458
  9,903
  10,372
  10,866
  11,385
  11,933
  12,508
  13,114
  13,751
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
  0.255
Average production assets, $m
  1,864
  1,902
  1,945
  1,995
  2,051
  2,114
  2,182
  2,256
  2,337
  2,423
  2,516
  2,616
  2,722
  2,835
  2,955
  3,083
  3,218
  3,361
  3,512
  3,672
  3,840
  4,018
  4,206
  4,404
  4,613
  4,832
  5,063
  5,307
  5,563
  5,832
  6,116
Working capital, $m
  57
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
Total debt, $m
  667
  616
  648
  685
  726
  771
  821
  876
  935
  998
  1,067
  1,140
  1,217
  1,300
  1,388
  1,482
  1,581
  1,686
  1,796
  1,914
  2,037
  2,168
  2,305
  2,450
  2,603
  2,764
  2,934
  3,112
  3,300
  3,497
  3,705
Total liabilities, $m
  1,445
  1,394
  1,426
  1,463
  1,504
  1,549
  1,599
  1,654
  1,713
  1,776
  1,845
  1,918
  1,995
  2,078
  2,166
  2,260
  2,359
  2,464
  2,574
  2,692
  2,815
  2,946
  3,083
  3,228
  3,381
  3,542
  3,712
  3,890
  4,078
  4,275
  4,483
Total equity, $m
  2,821
  2,882
  2,948
  3,024
  3,109
  3,203
  3,307
  3,419
  3,541
  3,673
  3,814
  3,964
  4,125
  4,297
  4,479
  4,672
  4,877
  5,093
  5,323
  5,565
  5,820
  6,090
  6,375
  6,675
  6,991
  7,323
  7,674
  8,043
  8,431
  8,839
  9,268
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,266
  4,276
  4,374
  4,487
  4,613
  4,752
  4,906
  5,073
  5,254
  5,449
  5,659
  5,882
  6,120
  6,375
  6,645
  6,932
  7,236
  7,557
  7,897
  8,257
  8,635
  9,036
  9,458
  9,903
  10,372
  10,865
  11,386
  11,933
  12,509
  13,114
  13,751
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.236
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.668
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674
  0.674

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -323
  -188
  -193
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -662
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  190
  195
  200
  205
  211
  218
  226
  234
  242
  252
  262
  272
  284
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  367
  384
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  506
  531
  556
  583
  612
Funds from operations, $m
  377
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  391
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -62
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -186
  -190
  -195
  -200
  -205
  -211
  -218
  -226
  -234
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -322
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -506
  -531
  -556
  -583
New CAPEX, $m
  -372
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -365
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -385
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -590
  -619
  -648
  -681
  -714
  -749
  -787
  -825
  -866
Free cash flow, $m
  26
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -593
  -623
  -655
  -689
  -724
  -761
  -800
  -840
  -883
  -928
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  30
  32
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  249
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
  341
  359
  378
  398
  419
  441
  464
  489
  514
  541
  569
  598
  629
  662
  696
  732
  769
  809
  851
  894
  940
  988
  1,039
  1,092
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  279
  292
  312
  331
  352
  373
  395
  418
  442
  466
  492
  519
  547
  577
  607
  640
  674
  709
  746
  786
  826
  870
  914
  962
  1,012
  1,063
  1,118
  1,176
  1,236
  1,300
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  56
  57
  66
  74
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  353
  371
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  340
  -249
  -260
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -341
  -359
  -378
  -398
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -489
  -514
  -541
  -569
  -598
  -629
  -662
  -696
  -732
  -769
  -809
  -851
  -894
  -940
  -988
  -1,039
  -1,092
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -194
  -202
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -621
  -653
  -686
  -720
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -186
  -185
  -182
  -178
  -174
  -170
  -164
  -158
  -152
  -145
  -137
  -129
  -120
  -111
  -102
  -92
  -83
  -74
  -65
  -56
  -48
  -40
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.2
  88.7
  83.3
  78.1
  73.1
  68.3
  63.7
  59.4
  55.3
  51.4
  47.8
  44.3
  41.1
  38.1
  35.3
  32.7
  30.2
  27.9
  25.8
  23.8
  22.0
  20.3
  18.7
  17.3
  15.9
  14.7
  13.5
  12.5
  11.5
  10.6

Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. (Buenaventura) is a precious metals company. The Company is engaged in the exploration, mining and processing of gold, silver and other metals in Peru. The Company's segments include Production and sale of minerals; Exploration and development activities; Construction and engineering services; Energy generation and transmission services; Insurance brokerage; Rental of mining concessions; Holding of investment in shares (mainly in Minera Yanacocha S.R.L. and S.M.R.L. Chaupiloma Dos de Cajamarca), and Industrial activities. The Company operates the Orcopampa, Uchucchacua, Julcani, Mallay and Breapampa mines and has controlling interests in over three other mining companies, which operate the Colquijirca-Marcapunta, Tantahuatay and La Zanja mines. It also owns an electric power transmission company, a hydroelectric plant, a processing plant and an engineering services consulting company and non-controlling interests in various other mining companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR (BVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.6
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 197.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 67.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20.3%
Total Debt to Equity 23.6%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Total Capital -8.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Return On Equity -10.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
EBITDA Margin -27%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -23.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Net Profit Margin -30.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Effective Tax Rate -21.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

BVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1069 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 115.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BVN are equal to 174.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BVN is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2821 million for Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 274.6 million for Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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Financial statements of BVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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