Intrinsic value of Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises - BW

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$9.44

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$9.44

 
Intrinsic value

$1.47

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.19
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,578
  1,610
  1,647
  1,689
  1,736
  1,789
  1,847
  1,910
  1,978
  2,051
  2,130
  2,214
  2,304
  2,400
  2,501
  2,609
  2,724
  2,845
  2,973
  3,108
  3,251
  3,401
  3,560
  3,728
  3,904
  4,090
  4,286
  4,492
  4,708
  4,936
  5,176
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  486
  496
  508
  522
  537
  553
  571
  591
  611
  634
  631
  657
  684
  713
  744
  776
  811
  847
  886
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
  1,476
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,266
  1,298
  1,330
  1,363
  1,397
  1,432
  1,468
  1,505
  1,542
  1,581
  1,620
  1,661
  1,702
  1,745
  1,789
  1,833
  1,879
  1,926
  1,974
  2,024
  2,074
  2,126
  2,179
  2,234
  2,290
  2,347
  2,406
  2,466
  2,527
  2,590
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,681
  1,752
  1,794
  1,838
  1,885
  1,934
  1,985
  2,039
  2,096
  2,153
  2,215
  2,251
  2,318
  2,386
  2,458
  2,533
  2,609
  2,690
  2,773
  2,860
  2,951
  3,044
  3,141
  3,242
  3,347
  3,456
  3,569
  3,686
  3,808
  3,934
  4,066
Operating income, $m
  -103
  -142
  -147
  -149
  -149
  -145
  -139
  -129
  -117
  -103
  -85
  -38
  -14
  13
  43
  77
  114
  154
  199
  247
  300
  357
  419
  486
  557
  634
  717
  806
  900
  1,002
  1,110
EBITDA, $m
  -63
  -97
  -101
  -103
  -102
  -98
  -91
  -81
  -68
  -52
  -34
  -12
  13
  41
  72
  107
  145
  187
  233
  283
  338
  396
  460
  529
  602
  681
  766
  857
  955
  1,059
  1,170
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
Earnings before tax, $m
  -108
  -142
  -148
  -151
  -151
  -148
  -143
  -135
  -125
  -111
  -95
  -49
  -27
  -2
  26
  57
  92
  130
  172
  218
  268
  322
  380
  443
  511
  585
  663
  748
  838
  935
  1,038
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  7
  15
  25
  35
  46
  59
  72
  87
  103
  120
  138
  158
  179
  202
  226
  252
  280
Net income, $m
  -116
  -142
  -148
  -151
  -151
  -148
  -143
  -135
  -125
  -111
  -95
  -49
  -27
  -2
  19
  42
  67
  95
  125
  159
  195
  235
  278
  324
  373
  427
  484
  546
  612
  683
  758

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,529
  1,462
  1,496
  1,534
  1,577
  1,625
  1,677
  1,735
  1,796
  1,863
  1,934
  2,011
  2,093
  2,179
  2,272
  2,370
  2,474
  2,584
  2,700
  2,823
  2,952
  3,089
  3,234
  3,386
  3,546
  3,715
  3,893
  4,080
  4,276
  4,484
  4,701
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,433
  1,462
  1,496
  1,534
  1,577
  1,625
  1,677
  1,735
  1,796
  1,863
  1,934
  2,011
  2,093
  2,179
  2,272
  2,370
  2,474
  2,584
  2,700
  2,823
  2,952
  3,089
  3,234
  3,386
  3,546
  3,715
  3,893
  4,080
  4,276
  4,484
  4,701
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
Average production assets, $m
  195
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  366
  382
  400
  418
  438
  459
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  637
Working capital, $m
  160
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
Total debt, $m
  14
  19
  42
  68
  97
  129
  164
  203
  244
  289
  337
  388
  443
  502
  564
  630
  699
  773
  851
  934
  1,021
  1,113
  1,210
  1,312
  1,420
  1,533
  1,653
  1,779
  1,911
  2,050
  2,196
Total liabilities, $m
  977
  982
  1,005
  1,031
  1,060
  1,092
  1,127
  1,166
  1,207
  1,252
  1,300
  1,351
  1,406
  1,465
  1,527
  1,593
  1,662
  1,736
  1,814
  1,897
  1,984
  2,076
  2,173
  2,275
  2,383
  2,496
  2,616
  2,742
  2,874
  3,013
  3,159
Total equity, $m
  552
  480
  491
  503
  517
  533
  550
  569
  589
  611
  635
  660
  686
  715
  745
  777
  811
  847
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,163
  1,218
  1,277
  1,338
  1,403
  1,471
  1,542
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,529
  1,462
  1,496
  1,534
  1,577
  1,625
  1,677
  1,735
  1,796
  1,863
  1,935
  2,011
  2,092
  2,180
  2,272
  2,370
  2,473
  2,583
  2,700
  2,823
  2,952
  3,089
  3,234
  3,386
  3,546
  3,714
  3,893
  4,080
  4,277
  4,484
  4,701
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.025
  0.040
  0.090
  0.130
  0.190
  0.240
  0.300
  0.360
  0.410
  0.470
  0.530
  0.590
  0.650
  0.700
  0.760
  0.810
  0.860
  0.910
  0.960
  1.010
  1.050
  1.100
  1.140
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.318
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -116
  -142
  -148
  -151
  -151
  -148
  -143
  -135
  -125
  -111
  -95
  -49
  -27
  -2
  19
  42
  67
  95
  125
  159
  195
  235
  278
  324
  373
  427
  484
  546
  612
  683
  758
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  45
  46
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  49
  50
  51
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Funds from operations, $m
  37
  -97
  -102
  -105
  -104
  -101
  -95
  -87
  -75
  -61
  -44
  -24
  -1
  25
  47
  72
  98
  128
  160
  195
  233
  274
  318
  366
  418
  474
  534
  598
  666
  739
  818
Change in working capital, $m
  35
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  -88
  -104
  -107
  -107
  -104
  -98
  -90
  -78
  -65
  -48
  -28
  -5
  20
  42
  66
  93
  122
  153
  188
  226
  266
  311
  358
  410
  465
  524
  587
  655
  728
  806
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -181
  -21
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -82
  -87
Free cash flow, $m
  -179
  -109
  -127
  -131
  -132
  -130
  -126
  -119
  -109
  -96
  -81
  -63
  -42
  -18
  2
  24
  49
  75
  105
  137
  172
  211
  252
  297
  345
  397
  453
  513
  577
  646
  720
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  19
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -78
  17
  115
  118
  117
  114
  108
  99
  88
  73
  56
  37
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -83
  36
  138
  144
  146
  146
  143
  137
  130
  118
  104
  88
  69
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -269
  -90
  -104
  -105
  -103
  -98
  -90
  -80
  -67
  -51
  -33
  -11
  13
  41
  64
  90
  118
  149
  183
  220
  260
  303
  349
  399
  453
  510
  572
  639
  709
  785
  866
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  196
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  12
  34
  58
  84
  113
  145
  179
  217
  258
  302
  349
  400
  455
  514
  577
  645
  717
  794
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  5
  11
  17
  21
  25
  27
  28
  28
  27
  25
  23
  20
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.7
  74.2
  57.6
  45.0
  35.6
  28.7
  23.6
  19.9
  17.3
  15.6
  14.6
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2
  14.2

Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. provides energy and environmental technologies and services for the power and industrial markets worldwide. It operates through three segments: Global Power, Global Services, and Industrial Environmental. The Global Power segment engineers, manufactures, procures, constructs, and commissions steam generating and environmental systems, and other related equipment. Its products comprise boilers for utility and industrial applications, including advanced subcritical, fluidized bed, biomass-fired, waste-to-energy, chemical recovery, industrial power, package, and waste heat boilers, as well as heat recovery steam generators. This segment also offers air pollution control systems and related equipment; and wet and dry flue gas desulfurization systems, catalytic and non-catalytic nitrogen oxides reduction systems, low nitrogen oxides burners and overfire air systems, fabric filter baghouses, wet and dry electrostatic precipitators, mercury control systems, and dry sorbent injection for acid gas mitigation. The Global Services segment provides a range of aftermarket products and services, such as replacement parts, field technical services, retrofit and upgrade projects, fuel switching and repowering projects, construction and maintenance services, start-up and commissioning, training programs, and plant operations and maintenance for utilities, independent power producers, and industrial companies. The Industrial Environmental segment designs, engineers, and manufactures oxidizers, solvent and distillation systems, wet and dry electrostatic precipitators, fabric filter baghouses, scrubbers, and heat recovery systems; and specialized industrial process systems, coating lines, and equipment. This segment serves chemical, pharmaceutical, energy storage, packaging, and automotive markets. The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises (BW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 203.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 2.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Return On Total Capital -17.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Equity -17.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
EBITDA Margin -4.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Operating Margin -6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Effective Tax Rate -6.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

BW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1578 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 30.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1235 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BW are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BW is equal to 4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $552 million for Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.623 million for Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Babcock&Wilcox Enterprises at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Industrial Stocks Struggling in March   [11:04AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Shareholder suits against Babcock & Wilcox multiply   [03:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of BW Financial statements of BW
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