Intrinsic value of Baldwin&Lyons Cl B - BWINB

Previous Close

$22.80

  Intrinsic Value

$111.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+389%

Previous close

$22.80

 
Intrinsic value

$111.57

 
Up/down potential

+389%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BWINB.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BWINB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.85
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  0
  382
  443
  510
  581
  658
  739
  825
  915
  1,009
  1,108
  1,212
  1,319
  1,431
  1,548
  1,669
  1,795
  1,927
  2,063
  2,204
  2,351
  2,504
  2,664
  2,829
  3,002
  3,182
  3,369
  3,564
  3,768
  3,981
  4,204
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  289
  336
  386
  440
  498
  559
  624
  692
  764
  839
  917
  999
  1,084
  1,172
  1,264
  1,359
  1,458
  1,561
  1,669
  1,780
  1,896
  2,016
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
  2,550
  2,698
  2,853
  3,014
  3,182
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
Total operating expenses, $m
  282
  327
  375
  426
  481
  540
  602
  668
  737
  810
  886
  966
  1,049
  1,135
  1,224
  1,318
  1,414
  1,514
  1,619
  1,728
  1,841
  1,958
  2,080
  2,207
  2,339
  2,477
  2,620
  2,770
  2,927
  3,090
  3,260
Operating income, $m
  43
  55
  69
  84
  100
  118
  137
  156
  177
  199
  222
  246
  271
  297
  324
  352
  381
  412
  444
  476
  511
  546
  584
  622
  663
  705
  748
  794
  842
  892
  944
EBITDA, $m
  67
  55
  69
  84
  100
  118
  137
  156
  177
  199
  222
  246
  271
  297
  324
  352
  381
  412
  444
  476
  511
  546
  584
  622
  663
  705
  748
  794
  842
  892
  944
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  5
  10
  16
  21
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  164
  176
  189
  203
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  296
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  54
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  136
  151
  166
  182
  199
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  358
  382
  407
  433
  460
  488
  517
  548
  580
  613
  648
Tax expense, $m
  14
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
Net income, $m
  29
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  171
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  448
  473

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,154
  1,353
  1,572
  1,808
  2,062
  2,333
  2,620
  2,924
  3,244
  3,579
  3,930
  4,296
  4,678
  5,076
  5,490
  5,920
  6,367
  6,832
  7,314
  7,816
  8,338
  8,881
  9,445
  10,033
  10,645
  11,282
  11,947
  12,640
  13,363
  14,118
  14,906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,154
  1,353
  1,572
  1,808
  2,062
  2,333
  2,620
  2,924
  3,244
  3,579
  3,930
  4,296
  4,678
  5,076
  5,490
  5,920
  6,367
  6,832
  7,314
  7,816
  8,338
  8,881
  9,445
  10,033
  10,645
  11,282
  11,947
  12,640
  13,363
  14,118
  14,906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
Average production assets, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  24
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
Total debt, $m
  20
  149
  292
  445
  610
  786
  973
  1,171
  1,378
  1,596
  1,824
  2,062
  2,311
  2,569
  2,838
  3,118
  3,409
  3,711
  4,024
  4,351
  4,690
  5,042
  5,409
  5,791
  6,189
  6,603
  7,035
  7,486
  7,956
  8,447
  8,959
Total liabilities, $m
  750
  879
  1,022
  1,175
  1,340
  1,516
  1,703
  1,901
  2,108
  2,326
  2,554
  2,792
  3,041
  3,299
  3,568
  3,848
  4,139
  4,441
  4,754
  5,081
  5,420
  5,772
  6,139
  6,521
  6,919
  7,333
  7,765
  8,216
  8,686
  9,177
  9,689
Total equity, $m
  404
  474
  550
  633
  722
  816
  917
  1,023
  1,135
  1,253
  1,375
  1,504
  1,637
  1,777
  1,921
  2,072
  2,228
  2,391
  2,560
  2,736
  2,918
  3,108
  3,306
  3,511
  3,726
  3,949
  4,181
  4,424
  4,677
  4,941
  5,217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,154
  1,353
  1,572
  1,808
  2,062
  2,332
  2,620
  2,924
  3,243
  3,579
  3,929
  4,296
  4,678
  5,076
  5,489
  5,920
  6,367
  6,832
  7,314
  7,817
  8,338
  8,880
  9,445
  10,032
  10,645
  11,282
  11,946
  12,640
  13,363
  14,118
  14,906
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.320
  0.530
  0.700
  0.850
  0.960
  1.060
  1.140
  1.210
  1.270
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  171
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  448
  473
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -20
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  171
  184
  199
  214
  229
  245
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  448
  473
Change in working capital, $m
  -52
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  36
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  191
  205
  221
  236
  253
  270
  287
  306
  325
  345
  366
  388
  411
  434
  459
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  24
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  191
  205
  221
  236
  253
  270
  287
  306
  325
  345
  366
  388
  411
  434
  459
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  129
  142
  154
  165
  176
  187
  197
  208
  218
  228
  238
  248
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  367
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  512
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  30
  30
  29
  27
  24
  21
  17
  12
  7
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  159
  172
  183
  192
  200
  208
  214
  220
  225
  230
  238
  248
  259
  269
  280
  291
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  367
  382
  398
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  512
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  184
  215
  232
  249
  266
  282
  298
  314
  329
  345
  365
  387
  409
  433
  457
  482
  507
  534
  562
  592
  622
  654
  688
  723
  759
  798
  838
  881
  925
  972
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -70
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -276
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  114
  138
  150
  161
  171
  182
  192
  202
  212
  222
  236
  253
  270
  288
  306
  325
  345
  365
  387
  409
  432
  457
  482
  509
  536
  565
  596
  628
  661
  696
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  109
  127
  130
  132
  133
  132
  130
  126
  122
  116
  112
  108
  103
  97
  90
  83
  75
  67
  60
  52
  45
  38
  32
  26
  21
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.0
  85.6
  80.6
  76.8
  73.9
  71.7
  70.2
  69.2
  68.7
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6
  68.6

Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. is a specialty property-casualty insurer providing liability coverage for large and medium-sized trucking and public transportation fleets, as well as coverage for trucking industry independent contractors. Through its divisions and subsidiaries, the Company engages in marketing and underwriting property and casualty insurance, including a limited assumption of risks as a reinsurer of other companies. Its segments include property and casualty insurance, and reinsurance. The property and casualty insurance segment provides multiple line insurance coverage primarily to fleet transportation companies, as well as to independent contractors contracting with fleet transportation companies. Its insurance subsidiaries provide a range of fleet transportation insurance, such as Commercial motor vehicle liability, physical damage and general liability insurance; non-trucking motor vehicle liability insurance for independent contractors, and fidelity and surety bonds.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Baldwin&Lyons Cl B (BWINB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.9
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 7.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 20.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Operating Margin 13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Effective Tax Rate 32.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 55.2%

BWINB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BWINB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $325 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Baldwin&Lyons Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Baldwin&Lyons Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BWINB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for BWINB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Baldwin&Lyons Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Baldwin&Lyons Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BWINB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $37 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BWINB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Baldwin&Lyons Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Baldwin&Lyons Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BWINB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BWINB are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of -0.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Baldwin&Lyons Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BWINB is equal to 6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $404 million for Baldwin&Lyons Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.082 million for Baldwin&Lyons Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Baldwin&Lyons Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-12-18 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. Class B to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-08-17 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-07-17 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-08-17 03:51PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Prem Watsa Eliminates 3 Positions in 1st Quarter   [May-12-17 01:13PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-09-17 04:26PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-10-17 02:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-08-16 02:43PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-09-16 02:14PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [May-10-16 03:14PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Increased Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-05-16 04:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces the Election of a Director   [Feb-04-16 08:28AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Buy Baldwin & Lyons Inc (BWINB)?   [Dec-09  11:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Baldwin & Lyons Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-10  10:27AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of BWINB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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