Intrinsic value of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners - BWP

Previous Close

$17.32

  Intrinsic Value

$7.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

  Value-price divergence*

-33%

Previous close

$17.32

 
Intrinsic value

$7.42

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-33%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BWP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.64
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  1,234
  1,391
  1,478
  1,568
  1,663
  1,761
  1,864
  1,971
  2,083
  2,199
  2,321
  2,449
  2,582
  2,721
  2,867
  3,019
  3,179
  3,346
  3,521
  3,705
  3,897
  4,098
  4,310
  4,531
  4,763
  5,007
  5,262
  5,530
  5,811
  6,106
  6,415
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  948
  1,006
  1,066
  1,129
  1,195
  1,263
  1,334
  1,408
  1,486
  1,567
  1,628
  1,717
  1,809
  1,906
  2,007
  2,114
  2,225
  2,341
  2,463
  2,591
  2,725
  2,865
  3,013
  3,167
  3,329
  3,499
  3,677
  3,864
  4,060
  4,265
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  830
  948
  1,006
  1,066
  1,129
  1,195
  1,263
  1,334
  1,408
  1,486
  1,567
  1,628
  1,717
  1,809
  1,906
  2,007
  2,114
  2,225
  2,341
  2,463
  2,591
  2,725
  2,865
  3,013
  3,167
  3,329
  3,499
  3,677
  3,864
  4,060
  4,265
Operating income, $m
  478
  442
  472
  502
  534
  567
  601
  637
  674
  713
  754
  821
  865
  912
  961
  1,012
  1,065
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
  1,306
  1,374
  1,444
  1,519
  1,596
  1,678
  1,764
  1,853
  1,947
  2,046
  2,150
EBITDA, $m
  796
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  625
  660
  698
  737
  778
  821
  865
  912
  961
  1,012
  1,065
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
  1,306
  1,374
  1,444
  1,519
  1,596
  1,678
  1,764
  1,853
  1,947
  2,046
  2,150
Interest expense (income), $m
  171
  174
  188
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  295
  313
  332
  351
  372
  393
  416
  439
  464
  490
  517
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  709
  746
  786
  827
  871
  916
Earnings before tax, $m
  303
  268
  284
  301
  318
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  441
  489
  514
  540
  567
  596
  626
  657
  690
  725
  761
  798
  838
  880
  923
  969
  1,017
  1,067
  1,120
  1,176
  1,234
Tax expense, $m
  1
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
  249
  262
  275
  288
  302
  317
  333
Net income, $m
  302
  196
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  322
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  555
  583
  612
  642
  674
  707
  742
  779
  818
  858
  901

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,638
  9,210
  9,786
  10,386
  11,012
  11,663
  12,343
  13,052
  13,792
  14,565
  15,372
  16,216
  17,098
  18,020
  18,985
  19,995
  21,053
  22,160
  23,320
  24,535
  25,808
  27,142
  28,541
  30,007
  31,545
  33,157
  34,848
  36,622
  38,483
  40,436
  42,484
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,633
  9,210
  9,786
  10,386
  11,012
  11,663
  12,343
  13,052
  13,792
  14,565
  15,372
  16,216
  17,098
  18,020
  18,985
  19,995
  21,053
  22,160
  23,320
  24,535
  25,808
  27,142
  28,541
  30,007
  31,545
  33,157
  34,848
  36,622
  38,483
  40,436
  42,484
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.143
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
  0.151
Average production assets, $m
  -1,908
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -159
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -318
  -335
  -352
  -370
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -453
  -476
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -581
  -611
  -642
Total debt, $m
  3,558
  3,835
  4,109
  4,395
  4,693
  5,003
  5,326
  5,664
  6,016
  6,384
  6,768
  7,170
  7,589
  8,029
  8,488
  8,969
  9,472
  9,999
  10,551
  11,130
  11,736
  12,371
  13,036
  13,734
  14,466
  15,234
  16,039
  16,883
  17,769
  18,698
  19,673
Total liabilities, $m
  4,107
  4,384
  4,658
  4,944
  5,242
  5,552
  5,875
  6,213
  6,565
  6,933
  7,317
  7,719
  8,138
  8,578
  9,037
  9,518
  10,021
  10,548
  11,100
  11,679
  12,285
  12,920
  13,585
  14,283
  15,015
  15,783
  16,588
  17,432
  18,318
  19,247
  20,222
Total equity, $m
  4,531
  4,826
  5,128
  5,442
  5,770
  6,112
  6,468
  6,839
  7,227
  7,632
  8,055
  8,497
  8,959
  9,443
  9,948
  10,478
  11,032
  11,612
  12,220
  12,856
  13,523
  14,222
  14,955
  15,724
  16,529
  17,374
  18,261
  19,190
  20,165
  21,188
  22,262
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,638
  9,210
  9,786
  10,386
  11,012
  11,664
  12,343
  13,052
  13,792
  14,565
  15,372
  16,216
  17,097
  18,021
  18,985
  19,996
  21,053
  22,160
  23,320
  24,535
  25,808
  27,142
  28,540
  30,007
  31,544
  33,157
  34,849
  36,622
  38,483
  40,435
  42,484
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.785
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524
  0.524

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  302
  196
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  322
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  555
  583
  612
  642
  674
  707
  742
  779
  818
  858
  901
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  318
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  576
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  555
  583
  612
  642
  674
  707
  742
  779
  818
  858
  901
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
Cash from operations, $m
  601
  228
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  324
  341
  358
  370
  388
  408
  429
  450
  473
  497
  521
  547
  575
  603
  633
  664
  697
  732
  768
  806
  846
  888
  932
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -590
  -1,908
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -590
  -1,717
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  -1,489
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
  324
  341
  358
  370
  388
  408
  429
  450
  473
  497
  521
  547
  575
  603
  633
  664
  697
  732
  768
  806
  846
  888
  932
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  93
  277
  274
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  368
  384
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  666
  698
  732
  768
  805
  844
  886
  929
  975
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  104
  95
  95
  95
  96
  96
  97
  98
  99
  101
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  93
  381
  369
  381
  393
  406
  419
  434
  450
  467
  485
  487
  507
  528
  551
  575
  600
  627
  656
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  864
  906
  949
  994
  1,043
  1,094
  1,148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  104
  -1,108
  609
  633
  658
  685
  714
  743
  775
  808
  843
  856
  895
  936
  980
  1,025
  1,073
  1,124
  1,177
  1,233
  1,292
  1,354
  1,420
  1,489
  1,561
  1,637
  1,717
  1,801
  1,889
  1,982
  2,079
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -204
  -300
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -342
  -356
  -372
  -388
  -405
  -423
  -442
  -462
  -483
  -506
  -529
  -554
  -580
  -608
  -637
  -667
  -699
  -733
  -768
  -806
  -845
  -886
  -930
  -975
  -1,023
  -1,073
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -300
  307
  318
  331
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  625
  655
  687
  720
  755
  792
  831
  871
  914
  959
  1,006
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -278
  263
  249
  235
  220
  204
  187
  170
  153
  136
  113
  98
  84
  71
  59
  48
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.7
  95.7
  93.9
  92.2
  90.7
  89.2
  87.8
  86.6
  85.3
  84.2
  83.3
  82.4
  81.6
  80.7
  80.0
  79.2
  78.5
  77.7
  77.0
  76.3
  75.7
  75.0
  74.4
  73.7
  73.1
  72.5
  71.9
  71.2
  70.6
  70.1

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP, through its subsidiaries, provides transportation, storage, gathering, and processing services for natural gas, and natural gas liquids and other hydrocarbons (NGLs) in the United States. It operates interstate natural gas and NGLs pipeline systems, and integrated storage facilities. The company’s pipeline systems contain approximately 13,930 interconnected natural gas pipelines, directly serving customers in 13 states and indirectly serving customers throughout the northeastern and southeastern United States through various interconnections with unaffiliated pipelines. It also owns and operates approximately 435 miles of NGLs pipelines serving customers in Louisiana and Texas. In addition, the company has underground storage caverns having aggregate capacity of approximately 205.0 billion cubic feet of working natural gas and 24.0 million barrels of NGLs. It serves producers of natural gas, local distribution companies, marketers, electric power generators, industrial users, and interstate and intrastate pipelines. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP is a subsidiary of Boardwalk Pipelines Holding Corp.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.4
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 394.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 57.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 78.5%
Total Debt to Equity 78.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 3.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 60.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.3%
Operating Margin 36.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Net Profit Margin 23.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 33.8%

BWP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BWP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1307 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boardwalk Pipeline Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BWP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for BWP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BWP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BWP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Boardwalk Pipeline Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boardwalk Pipeline Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BWP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BWP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boardwalk Pipeline Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BWP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4531 million for Boardwalk Pipeline Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 252.286 million for Boardwalk Pipeline Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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Stock chart of BWP Financial statements of BWP Annual reports of BWP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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