Intrinsic value of BWX Technologies - BWXT

Previous Close

$59.18

  Intrinsic Value

$23.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

+81%

Previous close

$59.18

 
Intrinsic value

$23.78

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+81%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BWXT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.53
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,551
  1,582
  1,618
  1,660
  1,707
  1,758
  1,815
  1,877
  1,944
  2,016
  2,093
  2,176
  2,265
  2,359
  2,458
  2,565
  2,677
  2,796
  2,922
  3,055
  3,195
  3,343
  3,499
  3,664
  3,837
  4,020
  4,212
  4,415
  4,628
  4,852
  5,088
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,183
  1,210
  1,240
  1,274
  1,312
  1,354
  1,400
  1,449
  1,502
  1,558
  1,598
  1,663
  1,732
  1,806
  1,883
  1,966
  2,053
  2,146
  2,243
  2,346
  2,455
  2,570
  2,691
  2,818
  2,952
  3,094
  3,242
  3,399
  3,563
  3,736
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  287
  295
  302
  309
  317
  325
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,311
  1,342
  1,373
  1,407
  1,445
  1,487
  1,534
  1,584
  1,638
  1,696
  1,756
  1,801
  1,871
  1,946
  2,025
  2,107
  2,196
  2,289
  2,388
  2,491
  2,600
  2,715
  2,837
  2,965
  3,098
  3,239
  3,389
  3,544
  3,708
  3,880
  4,061
Operating income, $m
  239
  240
  246
  253
  261
  271
  281
  293
  306
  321
  337
  375
  393
  413
  434
  457
  481
  507
  534
  564
  595
  628
  663
  700
  739
  780
  824
  871
  920
  972
  1,026
EBITDA, $m
  290
  296
  302
  310
  319
  330
  342
  355
  370
  386
  403
  422
  442
  464
  487
  512
  539
  567
  598
  630
  664
  700
  739
  779
  822
  868
  916
  967
  1,020
  1,077
  1,137
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  17
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  104
  110
Earnings before tax, $m
  257
  223
  231
  237
  244
  252
  262
  272
  283
  296
  309
  345
  361
  378
  397
  416
  438
  460
  484
  510
  537
  566
  596
  629
  663
  700
  738
  779
  822
  868
  916
Tax expense, $m
  73
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
Net income, $m
  183
  163
  169
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  207
  216
  226
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  319
  336
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
  459
  484
  511
  539
  569
  600
  634
  669

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,580
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,585
  1,633
  1,685
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,021
  2,103
  2,190
  2,283
  2,381
  2,486
  2,596
  2,713
  2,836
  2,967
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,733
  3,911
  4,099
  4,297
  4,505
  4,724
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,440
  1,469
  1,503
  1,541
  1,585
  1,633
  1,685
  1,743
  1,805
  1,872
  1,944
  2,021
  2,103
  2,190
  2,283
  2,381
  2,486
  2,596
  2,713
  2,836
  2,967
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,733
  3,911
  4,099
  4,297
  4,505
  4,724
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
  1.077
Average production assets, $m
  371
  378
  387
  397
  408
  420
  434
  449
  465
  482
  500
  520
  541
  564
  588
  613
  640
  668
  698
  730
  764
  799
  836
  876
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,055
  1,106
  1,160
  1,216
Working capital, $m
  254
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  191
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
Total debt, $m
  525
  417
  447
  482
  521
  564
  612
  664
  719
  780
  844
  914
  987
  1,066
  1,149
  1,238
  1,332
  1,431
  1,537
  1,648
  1,765
  1,889
  2,019
  2,157
  2,302
  2,454
  2,615
  2,784
  2,962
  3,150
  3,347
Total liabilities, $m
  1,430
  1,322
  1,352
  1,387
  1,426
  1,469
  1,517
  1,569
  1,624
  1,685
  1,749
  1,819
  1,892
  1,971
  2,054
  2,143
  2,237
  2,336
  2,442
  2,553
  2,670
  2,794
  2,924
  3,062
  3,207
  3,359
  3,520
  3,689
  3,867
  4,055
  4,252
Total equity, $m
  150
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  472
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,580
  1,469
  1,502
  1,541
  1,584
  1,632
  1,686
  1,743
  1,804
  1,872
  1,943
  2,021
  2,102
  2,190
  2,282
  2,381
  2,486
  2,596
  2,713
  2,837
  2,967
  3,104
  3,249
  3,402
  3,563
  3,732
  3,911
  4,099
  4,297
  4,506
  4,724
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.500
  2.840
  2.980
  3.130
  3.290
  3.460
  3.630
  3.810
  3.990
  4.170
  4.340
  4.520
  4.700
  4.870
  5.040
  5.200
  5.360
  5.510
  5.660
  5.810
  5.950
  6.080
  6.210
  6.340
  6.460
  6.580
  6.690
  6.790
  6.890
  6.990
  7.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.007
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  183
  163
  169
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  207
  216
  226
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  319
  336
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
  459
  484
  511
  539
  569
  600
  634
  669
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  51
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  67
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  111
Funds from operations, $m
  229
  218
  225
  230
  236
  244
  251
  260
  270
  281
  292
  299
  313
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  461
  486
  511
  539
  568
  598
  631
  665
  701
  739
  779
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  240
  215
  222
  227
  232
  239
  246
  255
  264
  274
  285
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  386
  405
  426
  449
  472
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
  646
  681
  719
  758
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -180
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -161
Free cash flow, $m
  60
  174
  179
  181
  185
  189
  195
  200
  207
  215
  223
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  299
  315
  331
  349
  367
  387
  408
  431
  455
  480
  506
  535
  564
  596
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  234
  -81
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -275
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  -81
  30
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  93
  209
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  263
  275
  288
  296
  310
  326
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  466
  491
  518
  546
  576
  607
  640
  676
  713
  752
  793
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  116
  -110
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  113
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  97
  206
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  388
  408
  430
  453
  477
  503
  531
  560
  590
  623
  657
  693
  731
  771
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  92
  184
  179
  172
  166
  159
  151
  143
  134
  125
  114
  105
  95
  86
  76
  67
  58
  50
  42
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

BWX Technologies, Inc. is a manufacturer of nuclear components and a service provider. The Company's businesses focus on the design, engineering and manufacture of precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the United States Government. Its segments include Nuclear Operations, Technical Services, Nuclear Energy and Other. It provides uranium processing and environmental site restoration services, as well as a range of products and services to customers in the nuclear power industry. Nuclear Operations engineers, designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components and reactors for the United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. Technical Services provides various services to the United States Government. Nuclear Energy designs, licenses, manufactures and delivers commercial nuclear steam generators, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers and other auxiliary equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BWX Technologies (BWXT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 39.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 332%
Total Debt to Equity 350%
Interest Coverage 38
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 29.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Return On Equity 88%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 15.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin 11.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 20.2%

BWXT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BWXT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1551 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BWX Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BWX Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BWXT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for BWXT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BWX Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BWX Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BWXT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $155 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BWXT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for BWX Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BWX Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BWXT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BWXT are equal to 23.9%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BWX Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BWXT is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $150 million for BWX Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.988 million for BWX Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BWX Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ BWXT to Host Investor and Analyst Day   [Sep-21-17 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ BWX posts 2Q profit   [Aug-07-17 11:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top 3 Nuclear Stocks for 2017   [Jun-22-17 06:42PM  Investopedia]
▶ BWX posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 05:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why General Electrics Aviation Segment Revenue Rose in 1Q17   [Apr-26-17 09:09AM  Market Realist]
▶ What Makes a Competitive Advantage Durable?   [Mar-27-17 06:16PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ How Catalysts Can Boost Your Annual Returns   [Mar-04-17 07:19PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ What Does Warren Buffett See in Apple?   [Mar-02-17 03:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Babcock & Wilcox misses earnings expectations by wide margin   [06:32AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why BWX Technologies Inc. Bounced 12% Higher   [12:42PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Top 3 Nuclear Stocks for 2017   [Jan-26-17 11:12AM  at Investopedia]
▶ BWXT to Present at CJS Securities Investor Conference   [Jan-05-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT)   [Nov-26-16 08:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of BWXT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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