Intrinsic value of BlueLinx Holdings - BXC

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$11.02

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BXC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,881
  1,955
  2,000
  2,052
  2,109
  2,173
  2,244
  2,320
  2,403
  2,492
  2,587
  2,690
  2,799
  2,915
  3,039
  3,170
  3,309
  3,456
  3,611
  3,775
  3,949
  4,132
  4,325
  4,528
  4,743
  4,969
  5,206
  5,457
  5,720
  5,997
  6,288
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,942
  1,986
  2,037
  2,095
  2,158
  2,228
  2,304
  2,386
  2,474
  2,569
  2,671
  2,779
  2,895
  3,017
  3,148
  3,285
  3,431
  3,586
  3,749
  3,921
  4,103
  4,295
  4,497
  4,710
  4,934
  5,170
  5,418
  5,680
  5,955
  6,244
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,839
  1,942
  1,986
  2,037
  2,095
  2,158
  2,228
  2,304
  2,386
  2,474
  2,569
  2,671
  2,779
  2,895
  3,017
  3,148
  3,285
  3,431
  3,586
  3,749
  3,921
  4,103
  4,295
  4,497
  4,710
  4,934
  5,170
  5,418
  5,680
  5,955
  6,244
Operating income, $m
  42
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
EBITDA, $m
  51
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  23
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  -9
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  16
  -9
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  444
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  594
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  438
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  594
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.295
  3.774
  3.774
  3.772
  3.773
  3.773
  3.778
  3.772
  3.772
  3.776
  3.771
  3.773
  3.772
  3.776
  3.775
  3.774
  3.773
  3.773
  3.773
  3.775
  3.775
  3.774
  3.774
  3.773
  3.773
  3.773
  3.772
  3.774
  3.773
  3.774
  3.774
Average production assets, $m
  95
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
Working capital, $m
  192
  297
  304
  312
  321
  330
  341
  353
  365
  379
  393
  409
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  525
  549
  574
  600
  628
  657
  688
  721
  755
  791
  829
  869
  912
  956
Total debt, $m
  322
  309
  320
  332
  346
  361
  378
  396
  416
  437
  460
  484
  510
  538
  568
  599
  632
  667
  704
  743
  785
  828
  874
  923
  974
  1,028
  1,085
  1,144
  1,207
  1,273
  1,343
Total liabilities, $m
  474
  466
  477
  489
  503
  518
  535
  553
  573
  594
  617
  641
  667
  695
  725
  756
  789
  824
  861
  900
  942
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,301
  1,364
  1,430
  1,500
Total equity, $m
  -30
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  444
  518
  530
  543
  559
  576
  594
  614
  637
  660
  686
  712
  741
  772
  806
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,047
  1,094
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,667
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.733
  5.970
  6.040
  6.110
  6.190
  6.270
  6.360
  6.450
  6.530
  6.620
  6.710
  6.800
  6.880
  6.970
  7.050
  7.130
  7.210
  7.290
  7.360
  7.430
  7.500
  7.570
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.068
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  -9
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  1
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
Change in working capital, $m
  42
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  -7
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  37
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  -19
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -85
  -88
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  204
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -78
  116
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  -106
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -98
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
  19.45
  20.42
  21.44
  22.51
  23.64
  24.82
  26.06
  27.37
  28.73
  30.17
  31.68
  33.26
  34.93
  36.67
  38.51
  40.43
  42.45
  44.58
  46.80
  49.14
  51.60
  54.18
  56.89
  59.74
  62.72
  65.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  46.9
  43.9
  41.0
  38.2
  35.4
  32.7
  30.2
  27.7
  25.3
  23.1
  20.9
  18.9
  17.0
  15.3
  13.6
  12.1
  10.8
  9.5
  8.4
  7.4
  6.4
  5.6
  4.9
  4.2
  3.7
  3.2
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0

BlueLinx Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, BlueLinx Corporation, distributes building products in North America. It distributes products in two principal categories, structural products and specialty products. The company’s structural products include plywood, oriented strand board, rebar and remesh, lumber, and other wood products primarily used for structural support, walls, and floorings in construction projects. Its specialty products comprise roofing, insulation, specialty panels, moldings, engineered wood products, vinyl products, outdoor living and metal products, and particle boards. The company also provides a range of value-added services and solutions to its customers. It serves dealers, industrial manufacturers, manufactured housing producers, and home improvement retailers through a network of 44 distribution centers. BlueLinx Holdings Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  BlueLinx Holdings (BXC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.2
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -27.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -903.3%
Total Debt to Equity -1073.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Equity -42.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 3.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Operating Margin 2.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

BXC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BXC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1917 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by BlueLinx Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of BlueLinx Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BXC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16%, whose default value for BXC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of BlueLinx Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of BlueLinx Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BXC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BXC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for BlueLinx Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for BlueLinx Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BXC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BXC are equal to 5.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in BlueLinx Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BXC is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-46 million for BlueLinx Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.965 million for BlueLinx Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of BlueLinx Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ BlueLinx posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ BlueLinx to Announce First Quarter Results on May 4th   [Apr-20-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx Completes Three Property Sales   [04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx posts 4Q profit   [07:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ BlueLinx Announces Third-Quarter Results   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx Announces Extension of Revolving Credit Facility   [Nov-03-16 06:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx Announces Second-Quarter Results   [07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx to Announce Second Quarter Results on August 4th   [Jul-21-16 12:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx Announces First-Quarter Results   [07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx to Announce First Quarter Results on May 12th   [Apr-29-16 11:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ BlueLinx Announces Deleveraging Plan   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Investor Update: 287% Upside In 2015   [Dec-11  09:45AM  Accesswire]
Stock chart of BXC Financial statements of BXC Annual reports of BXC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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