Intrinsic value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A - BXMT

Previous Close

$31.52

  Intrinsic Value

$39.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+24%

Previous close

$31.52

 
Intrinsic value

$39.03

 
Up/down potential

+24%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as BXMT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of BXMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.17
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  498
  568
  643
  723
  807
  895
  988
  1,085
  1,187
  1,293
  1,403
  1,518
  1,637
  1,761
  1,890
  2,023
  2,162
  2,307
  2,457
  2,614
  2,777
  2,946
  3,123
  3,307
  3,499
  3,699
  3,908
  4,127
  4,355
  4,594
  4,843
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  274
  310
  348
  389
  432
  476
  523
  572
  623
  676
  731
  789
  849
  911
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,184
  1,260
  1,338
  1,420
  1,505
  1,594
  1,686
  1,783
  1,884
  1,989
  2,099
  2,214
  2,334
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  251
  274
  310
  348
  389
  432
  476
  523
  572
  623
  676
  731
  789
  849
  911
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,184
  1,260
  1,338
  1,420
  1,505
  1,594
  1,686
  1,783
  1,884
  1,989
  2,099
  2,214
  2,334
Operating income, $m
  247
  294
  333
  374
  418
  464
  512
  562
  615
  670
  727
  786
  848
  912
  979
  1,048
  1,120
  1,195
  1,273
  1,354
  1,438
  1,526
  1,618
  1,713
  1,812
  1,916
  2,025
  2,138
  2,256
  2,379
  2,509
EBITDA, $m
  247
  294
  333
  374
  418
  464
  512
  562
  615
  670
  727
  786
  848
  912
  979
  1,048
  1,120
  1,195
  1,273
  1,354
  1,438
  1,526
  1,618
  1,713
  1,812
  1,916
  2,025
  2,138
  2,256
  2,379
  2,509
Interest expense (income), $m
  165
  215
  246
  279
  314
  351
  390
  431
  473
  518
  564
  613
  663
  716
  770
  826
  885
  946
  1,010
  1,076
  1,144
  1,216
  1,290
  1,368
  1,449
  1,533
  1,621
  1,713
  1,809
  1,909
  2,014
Earnings before tax, $m
  247
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  364
  383
  404
  425
  447
  471
  495
Tax expense, $m
  1
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Net income, $m
  238
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  171
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,813
  9,969
  11,284
  12,680
  14,155
  15,707
  17,337
  19,042
  20,823
  22,680
  24,613
  26,625
  28,717
  30,891
  33,150
  35,497
  37,937
  40,474
  43,112
  45,856
  48,713
  51,687
  54,786
  58,017
  61,385
  64,900
  68,569
  72,401
  76,404
  80,588
  84,963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,737
  9,969
  11,284
  12,680
  14,155
  15,707
  17,337
  19,042
  20,823
  22,680
  24,613
  26,625
  28,717
  30,891
  33,150
  35,497
  37,937
  40,474
  43,112
  45,856
  48,713
  51,687
  54,786
  58,017
  61,385
  64,900
  68,569
  72,401
  76,404
  80,588
  84,963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
  0.057
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  284
  322
  361
  403
  448
  494
  543
  593
  646
  701
  759
  818
  880
  945
  1,012
  1,081
  1,154
  1,229
  1,307
  1,388
  1,473
  1,561
  1,653
  1,749
  1,850
  1,954
  2,063
  2,178
  2,297
  2,421
Total debt, $m
  6,231
  7,040
  7,980
  8,978
  10,033
  11,143
  12,308
  13,527
  14,800
  16,128
  17,511
  18,949
  20,444
  21,999
  23,614
  25,293
  27,037
  28,851
  30,737
  32,699
  34,742
  36,868
  39,084
  41,394
  43,802
  46,316
  48,939
  51,679
  54,541
  57,532
  60,660
Total liabilities, $m
  6,319
  7,128
  8,068
  9,066
  10,121
  11,231
  12,396
  13,615
  14,888
  16,216
  17,599
  19,037
  20,532
  22,087
  23,702
  25,381
  27,125
  28,939
  30,825
  32,787
  34,830
  36,956
  39,172
  41,482
  43,890
  46,404
  49,027
  51,767
  54,629
  57,620
  60,748
Total equity, $m
  2,494
  2,841
  3,216
  3,614
  4,034
  4,477
  4,941
  5,427
  5,935
  6,464
  7,015
  7,588
  8,184
  8,804
  9,448
  10,117
  10,812
  11,535
  12,287
  13,069
  13,883
  14,731
  15,614
  16,535
  17,495
  18,497
  19,542
  20,634
  21,775
  22,968
  24,214
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,813
  9,969
  11,284
  12,680
  14,155
  15,708
  17,337
  19,042
  20,823
  22,680
  24,614
  26,625
  28,716
  30,891
  33,150
  35,498
  37,937
  40,474
  43,112
  45,856
  48,713
  51,687
  54,786
  58,017
  61,385
  64,901
  68,569
  72,401
  76,404
  80,588
  84,962
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.498
  2.480
  2.480
  2.480
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.490
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.500
  2.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285
  0.285

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  238
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  171
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  135
  143
  152
  162
  171
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  169
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  444
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  681
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  169
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -430
  885
  940
  998
  1,055
  1,110
  1,165
  1,219
  1,273
  1,328
  1,383
  1,438
  1,495
  1,554
  1,615
  1,679
  1,745
  1,814
  1,886
  1,962
  2,042
  2,127
  2,216
  2,310
  2,409
  2,513
  2,623
  2,740
  2,862
  2,992
  3,128
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  289
  311
  328
  345
  360
  375
  390
  404
  419
  433
  447
  461
  476
  491
  507
  524
  541
  560
  579
  600
  621
  644
  669
  695
  722
  751
  782
  814
  849
  885
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -467
  1,174
  1,251
  1,326
  1,400
  1,470
  1,540
  1,609
  1,677
  1,747
  1,816
  1,885
  1,956
  2,030
  2,106
  2,186
  2,269
  2,355
  2,446
  2,541
  2,642
  2,748
  2,860
  2,979
  3,104
  3,235
  3,374
  3,522
  3,676
  3,841
  4,013
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  212
  1,197
  1,277
  1,356
  1,433
  1,509
  1,583
  1,657
  1,730
  1,804
  1,878
  1,954
  2,032
  2,112
  2,195
  2,281
  2,370
  2,464
  2,563
  2,666
  2,775
  2,890
  3,011
  3,138
  3,273
  3,415
  3,564
  3,722
  3,889
  4,065
  4,250
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -347
  -375
  -398
  -420
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -508
  -529
  -551
  -573
  -596
  -620
  -644
  -669
  -695
  -723
  -752
  -782
  -814
  -848
  -883
  -921
  -960
  -1,002
  -1,046
  -1,092
  -1,141
  -1,192
  -1,247
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  850
  903
  958
  1,013
  1,066
  1,119
  1,171
  1,223
  1,275
  1,327
  1,381
  1,436
  1,492
  1,551
  1,612
  1,675
  1,741
  1,811
  1,884
  1,961
  2,042
  2,127
  2,218
  2,313
  2,413
  2,519
  2,630
  2,748
  2,872
  3,003
Discount rate, %
 
  11.60
  12.18
  12.79
  13.43
  14.10
  14.80
  15.55
  16.32
  17.14
  18.00
  18.90
  19.84
  20.83
  21.87
  22.97
  24.12
  25.32
  26.59
  27.92
  29.31
  30.78
  32.32
  33.93
  35.63
  37.41
  39.28
  41.25
  43.31
  45.47
  47.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  761
  717
  668
  612
  551
  489
  426
  365
  307
  254
  206
  164
  128
  97
  73
  53
  38
  26
  18
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.0
  85.1
  79.1
  73.8
  69.2
  65.2
  61.6
  58.3
  55.4
  52.8
  50.4
  48.2
  46.2
  44.4
  42.7
  41.1
  39.6
  38.2
  36.9
  35.7
  34.6
  33.5
  32.4
  31.4
  30.5
  29.6
  28.8
  27.9
  27.1
  26.4

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a holding company. The Company conducts its operations as a real estate investment trust for the United States federal income tax purposes. The Company originates and purchases senior loans collateralized by properties in North America and Europe. The Company's business is focused on originating or acquiring senior, floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets primarily in the office, lodging, retail, residential and industrial sectors. These investments may be in the form of whole loans or may also include pari passu participations within mortgage loans. It directly originates, co-originates and acquires debt instruments in conjunction with acquisitions, refinancings and recapitalizations of commercial real estate. The Company's manager is BXMT Advisors L.L.C.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A (BXMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.5
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.6%
Total Debt to Equity 249.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.8%
EBITDA Margin 82.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.2%
Operating Margin 49.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52%
Pre-Tax Margin 49.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.9%
Net Profit Margin 47.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Payout Ratio 97.9%

BXMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the BXMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $498 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our BXMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.6%, whose default value for BXMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of BXMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for BXMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the BXMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for BXMT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for BXMT is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2494 million for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 106.277 million for Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Blackstone Mortgage Trust Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Blackstone Mortgage beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-24-17 05:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackstone Mortgage misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 10:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Blackstone Mortgage misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-25-17 05:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Credit Suisse: 4 Picks in Mortgage REITs   [Apr-19-17 03:20PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 4 High-Yielding REITs For Retirement   [Feb-28-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ 4 High-Yielding REITs For Retirement   [07:00AM  at Forbes]
Financial statements of BXMT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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