Intrinsic value of CalAtlantic Group - CAA

Previous Close

$64.35

  Intrinsic Value

$39.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$64.35

 
Intrinsic value

$39.43

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  82.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,477
  6,607
  6,758
  6,932
  7,127
  7,343
  7,580
  7,839
  8,118
  8,419
  8,742
  9,088
  9,457
  9,849
  10,267
  10,710
  11,179
  11,676
  12,201
  12,756
  13,342
  13,961
  14,613
  15,300
  16,025
  16,788
  17,591
  18,436
  19,326
  20,262
  21,246
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,680
  5,808
  5,955
  6,120
  6,302
  6,503
  6,721
  6,957
  7,211
  7,484
  7,679
  7,991
  8,323
  8,676
  9,050
  9,446
  9,866
  10,310
  10,779
  11,275
  11,797
  12,348
  12,929
  13,541
  14,186
  14,865
  15,579
  16,331
  17,122
  17,954
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,724
  5,841
  5,973
  6,124
  6,293
  6,480
  6,685
  6,908
  7,148
  7,407
  7,685
  7,885
  8,202
  8,539
  8,898
  9,277
  9,679
  10,105
  10,555
  11,030
  11,532
  12,061
  12,618
  13,206
  13,825
  14,477
  15,163
  15,885
  16,644
  17,443
  18,283
Operating income, $m
  753
  766
  785
  808
  834
  863
  896
  931
  970
  1,012
  1,057
  1,202
  1,254
  1,310
  1,369
  1,432
  1,499
  1,571
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
  1,900
  1,994
  2,094
  2,199
  2,311
  2,428
  2,551
  2,682
  2,819
  2,963
EBITDA, $m
  815
  863
  882
  905
  931
  960
  993
  1,028
  1,067
  1,109
  1,154
  1,202
  1,254
  1,310
  1,369
  1,432
  1,499
  1,571
  1,646
  1,726
  1,810
  1,900
  1,994
  2,094
  2,199
  2,311
  2,428
  2,551
  2,682
  2,819
  2,963
Interest expense (income), $m
  220
  204
  209
  215
  222
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  352
  370
  388
  407
  428
  450
  472
  497
  522
  549
  577
  607
  639
  672
  706
  743
Earnings before tax, $m
  753
  562
  576
  593
  612
  634
  658
  684
  713
  743
  777
  910
  948
  989
  1,033
  1,080
  1,130
  1,183
  1,239
  1,298
  1,361
  1,427
  1,498
  1,572
  1,650
  1,733
  1,821
  1,913
  2,010
  2,112
  2,220
Tax expense, $m
  268
  152
  156
  160
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  201
  210
  246
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  424
  446
  468
  492
  516
  543
  570
  599
Net income, $m
  485
  410
  421
  433
  447
  463
  480
  499
  520
  543
  567
  664
  692
  722
  754
  788
  825
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,042
  1,093
  1,148
  1,205
  1,265
  1,329
  1,396
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,709
  8,670
  8,869
  9,097
  9,353
  9,637
  9,948
  10,287
  10,653
  11,049
  11,473
  11,926
  12,410
  12,926
  13,473
  14,055
  14,670
  15,322
  16,012
  16,740
  17,510
  18,321
  19,177
  20,079
  21,030
  22,031
  23,085
  24,195
  25,362
  26,590
  27,882
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,501
  8,670
  8,869
  9,097
  9,353
  9,637
  9,948
  10,287
  10,653
  11,049
  11,473
  11,926
  12,410
  12,926
  13,473
  14,055
  14,670
  15,322
  16,012
  16,740
  17,510
  18,321
  19,177
  20,079
  21,030
  22,031
  23,085
  24,195
  25,362
  26,590
  27,882
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
Total debt, $m
  3,667
  3,544
  3,645
  3,760
  3,889
  4,033
  4,190
  4,361
  4,546
  4,746
  4,960
  5,189
  5,433
  5,693
  5,970
  6,264
  6,575
  6,904
  7,252
  7,620
  8,008
  8,418
  8,850
  9,306
  9,786
  10,292
  10,824
  11,384
  11,974
  12,594
  13,247
Total liabilities, $m
  4,501
  4,378
  4,479
  4,594
  4,723
  4,867
  5,024
  5,195
  5,380
  5,580
  5,794
  6,023
  6,267
  6,527
  6,804
  7,098
  7,409
  7,738
  8,086
  8,454
  8,842
  9,252
  9,684
  10,140
  10,620
  11,126
  11,658
  12,218
  12,808
  13,428
  14,081
Total equity, $m
  4,208
  4,292
  4,390
  4,503
  4,630
  4,770
  4,924
  5,092
  5,273
  5,469
  5,679
  5,903
  6,143
  6,398
  6,669
  6,957
  7,262
  7,585
  7,926
  8,286
  8,667
  9,069
  9,493
  9,939
  10,410
  10,905
  11,427
  11,976
  12,554
  13,162
  13,802
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,709
  8,670
  8,869
  9,097
  9,353
  9,637
  9,948
  10,287
  10,653
  11,049
  11,473
  11,926
  12,410
  12,925
  13,473
  14,055
  14,671
  15,323
  16,012
  16,740
  17,509
  18,321
  19,177
  20,079
  21,030
  22,031
  23,085
  24,194
  25,362
  26,590
  27,883
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.871
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495
  0.495

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  485
  410
  421
  433
  447
  463
  480
  499
  520
  543
  567
  664
  692
  722
  754
  788
  825
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,042
  1,093
  1,148
  1,205
  1,265
  1,329
  1,396
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  97
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  507
  518
  530
  544
  560
  577
  596
  617
  640
  664
  664
  692
  722
  754
  788
  825
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,042
  1,093
  1,148
  1,205
  1,265
  1,329
  1,396
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621
Change in working capital, $m
  -234
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  322
  506
  517
  529
  543
  558
  576
  595
  615
  638
  662
  662
  690
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  901
  944
  990
  1,038
  1,089
  1,143
  1,200
  1,261
  1,324
  1,391
  1,462
  1,536
  1,615
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  325
  506
  517
  529
  543
  558
  576
  595
  615
  638
  662
  662
  690
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  901
  944
  990
  1,038
  1,089
  1,143
  1,200
  1,261
  1,324
  1,391
  1,462
  1,536
  1,615
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -59
  85
  101
  115
  129
  143
  157
  171
  185
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
  388
  410
  432
  456
  480
  506
  532
  560
  590
  620
  652
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -231
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -285
  85
  101
  115
  129
  143
  157
  171
  185
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
  388
  410
  432
  456
  480
  506
  532
  560
  590
  620
  652
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  592
  618
  644
  672
  702
  733
  766
  801
  837
  876
  891
  934
  980
  1,028
  1,079
  1,133
  1,190
  1,249
  1,312
  1,378
  1,448
  1,522
  1,599
  1,681
  1,766
  1,857
  1,952
  2,052
  2,157
  2,267
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -347
  -84
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -341
  -361
  -381
  -402
  -424
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -522
  -549
  -578
  -608
  -640
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  508
  519
  531
  545
  561
  579
  598
  619
  642
  666
  667
  695
  725
  757
  792
  828
  867
  908
  952
  998
  1,046
  1,098
  1,152
  1,210
  1,271
  1,335
  1,402
  1,474
  1,549
  1,628
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  471
  443
  415
  386
  357
  328
  298
  269
  241
  213
  179
  155
  132
  111
  92
  75
  60
  47
  36
  27
  20
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CalAtlantic Group, Inc. is a diversified builder of single-family attached and detached homes. The Company operates through two segments: homebuilding and financial services. The homebuilding segment operations include acquiring and developing land, and constructing and selling single-family attached and detached homes. The Financial Services segment includes mortgage financing operation, which provides mortgage financing to its homebuyers in the markets, in which it operates, and sells all of the loans it originates in the secondary mortgage market. The Company builds homes in communities that meet the desires of customers across the homebuilding spectrum, from entry level to luxury, in over 43 metropolitan statistical areas spanning 19 states and the District of Columbia. The Company also provides mortgage, title and escrow services. The Company provides mortgage loans to its homebuyers through its mortgage financing subsidiary, CalAtlantic Mortgage.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CalAtlantic Group (CAA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.2
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 83%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 81.3%
Total Debt to Equity 87.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 12%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
EBITDA Margin 16%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Operating Margin 11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
Payout Ratio 3.9%

CAA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6477 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CalAtlantic Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CalAtlantic Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for CAA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CalAtlantic Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CalAtlantic Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $157 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for CalAtlantic Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CalAtlantic Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAA are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CalAtlantic Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAA is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4208 million for CalAtlantic Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.545 million for CalAtlantic Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CalAtlantic Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MDC M.D.C. Holding 34.46 19.56  sell
LGIH LGI Homes 71.33 754.40  str.buy
TOL Toll Brothers 51.88 71.02  buy
LEN Lennar Cl A 71.82 102.56  str.buy
KBH KB Home 34.99 91.38  str.buy
NVR NVR 3,700.00 3,035.12  hold
DHI D.R. Horton 51.48 62.39  buy
MHO M/I Homes 36.46 33.46  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hot Companies In Hot Sector To Report; CES Talks Up Alexa: Action Plan   [Jan-09-18 04:39PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ CalAtlantic Group, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 12:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ CalAtlantic misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-08-17 06:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Calatlantic Sees RS Rating Rise To 94   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Lennar wants to merge with one of its largest competitors   [03:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Two of the Triangle's largest homebuilders merging   [01:22PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lennar inks merger agreement with CalAtlantic Group   [09:38AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ CalAtlantic Homes Now Selling At Saint John's Lake   [Oct-20-17 11:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CalAtlantic Homes Debuts Trellis   [Oct-11-17 04:43PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CAA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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