Intrinsic value of China Advanced Construction Materials Gr - CADC

Previous Close

$3.15

  Intrinsic Value

$1.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$3.15

 
Intrinsic value

$1.31

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CADC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.67
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  45
  72
  111
  166
  241
  341
  468
  628
  825
  1,062
  1,341
  1,665
  2,036
  2,454
  2,920
  3,433
  3,994
  4,601
  5,253
  5,949
  6,688
  7,470
  8,293
  9,157
  10,061
  11,005
  11,990
  13,016
  14,083
  15,192
  16,346
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  88
  136
  203
  295
  416
  572
  768
  1,008
  1,298
  1,639
  2,035
  2,488
  2,999
  3,568
  4,196
  4,880
  5,622
  6,419
  7,269
  8,173
  9,128
  10,134
  11,190
  12,294
  13,449
  14,652
  15,905
  17,209
  18,565
  19,974
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  54
  88
  136
  203
  295
  416
  572
  768
  1,008
  1,298
  1,639
  2,035
  2,488
  2,999
  3,568
  4,196
  4,880
  5,622
  6,419
  7,269
  8,173
  9,128
  10,134
  11,190
  12,294
  13,449
  14,652
  15,905
  17,209
  18,565
  19,974
Operating income, $m
  -9
  -16
  -25
  -37
  -54
  -76
  -104
  -140
  -183
  -236
  -298
  -370
  -452
  -545
  -648
  -762
  -887
  -1,021
  -1,166
  -1,321
  -1,485
  -1,658
  -1,841
  -2,033
  -2,234
  -2,443
  -2,662
  -2,890
  -3,126
  -3,373
  -3,629
EBITDA, $m
  -8
  -16
  -25
  -37
  -54
  -76
  -104
  -140
  -183
  -236
  -298
  -370
  -452
  -545
  -648
  -762
  -887
  -1,021
  -1,166
  -1,321
  -1,485
  -1,658
  -1,841
  -2,033
  -2,234
  -2,443
  -2,662
  -2,890
  -3,126
  -3,373
  -3,629
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  3
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  32
  43
  56
  71
  88
  108
  130
  155
  183
  213
  245
  280
  317
  357
  399
  443
  489
  538
  588
  641
  696
  753
  813
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  -17
  -27
  -42
  -61
  -87
  -121
  -163
  -216
  -279
  -353
  -440
  -540
  -653
  -778
  -917
  -1,069
  -1,234
  -1,411
  -1,601
  -1,802
  -2,015
  -2,240
  -2,476
  -2,723
  -2,981
  -3,250
  -3,531
  -3,823
  -4,126
  -4,442
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -10
  -17
  -27
  -42
  -61
  -87
  -121
  -163
  -216
  -279
  -353
  -440
  -540
  -653
  -778
  -917
  -1,069
  -1,234
  -1,411
  -1,601
  -1,802
  -2,015
  -2,240
  -2,476
  -2,723
  -2,981
  -3,250
  -3,531
  -3,823
  -4,126
  -4,442

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  80
  128
  198
  295
  429
  605
  832
  1,116
  1,466
  1,886
  2,382
  2,958
  3,617
  4,359
  5,186
  6,098
  7,094
  8,172
  9,330
  10,566
  11,880
  13,268
  14,730
  16,264
  17,870
  19,548
  21,297
  23,119
  25,014
  26,985
  29,033
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  80
  128
  198
  295
  429
  605
  832
  1,116
  1,466
  1,886
  2,382
  2,958
  3,617
  4,359
  5,186
  6,098
  7,094
  8,172
  9,330
  10,566
  11,880
  13,268
  14,730
  16,264
  17,870
  19,548
  21,297
  23,119
  25,014
  26,985
  29,033
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.563
  0.563
  0.561
  0.563
  0.562
  0.564
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  8
  36
  56
  83
  121
  170
  234
  314
  413
  531
  671
  833
  1,018
  1,227
  1,460
  1,717
  1,997
  2,300
  2,626
  2,974
  3,344
  3,735
  4,146
  4,578
  5,030
  5,503
  5,995
  6,508
  7,041
  7,596
  8,173
Total debt, $m
  32
  73
  133
  218
  333
  484
  680
  925
  1,226
  1,589
  2,016
  2,513
  3,080
  3,721
  4,434
  5,220
  6,078
  7,007
  8,005
  9,071
  10,203
  11,400
  12,660
  13,983
  15,367
  16,813
  18,321
  19,891
  21,525
  23,224
  24,989
Total liabilities, $m
  69
  110
  170
  255
  370
  521
  717
  962
  1,263
  1,626
  2,053
  2,550
  3,117
  3,758
  4,471
  5,257
  6,115
  7,044
  8,042
  9,108
  10,240
  11,437
  12,697
  14,020
  15,404
  16,850
  18,358
  19,928
  21,562
  23,261
  25,026
Total equity, $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  115
  154
  202
  260
  329
  408
  499
  602
  716
  842
  979
  1,128
  1,287
  1,458
  1,639
  1,831
  2,033
  2,244
  2,466
  2,698
  2,939
  3,190
  3,452
  3,724
  4,007
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  80
  128
  197
  296
  429
  604
  832
  1,116
  1,465
  1,886
  2,382
  2,958
  3,616
  4,360
  5,187
  6,099
  7,094
  8,172
  9,329
  10,566
  11,879
  13,268
  14,730
  16,264
  17,870
  19,548
  21,297
  23,118
  25,014
  26,985
  29,033
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.909
  4.150
  4.890
  5.340
  5.620
  5.800
  5.920
  6.010
  6.060
  6.100
  6.130
  6.160
  6.170
  6.180
  6.190
  6.200
  6.210
  6.210
  6.220
  6.220
  6.220
  6.230
  6.230
  6.230
  6.230
  6.230
  6.230
  6.230
  6.240
  6.240
  6.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -17
  -27
  -42
  -61
  -87
  -121
  -163
  -216
  -279
  -353
  -440
  -540
  -653
  -778
  -917
  -1,069
  -1,234
  -1,411
  -1,601
  -1,802
  -2,015
  -2,240
  -2,476
  -2,723
  -2,981
  -3,250
  -3,531
  -3,823
  -4,126
  -4,442
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  -17
  -27
  -42
  -61
  -87
  -121
  -163
  -216
  -279
  -353
  -440
  -540
  -653
  -778
  -917
  -1,069
  -1,234
  -1,411
  -1,601
  -1,802
  -2,015
  -2,240
  -2,476
  -2,723
  -2,981
  -3,250
  -3,531
  -3,823
  -4,126
  -4,442
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  14
  20
  28
  38
  50
  64
  80
  98
  118
  140
  162
  185
  209
  233
  257
  280
  303
  326
  348
  370
  391
  412
  432
  452
  472
  492
  513
  534
  555
  577
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  -31
  -47
  -69
  -99
  -137
  -185
  -243
  -314
  -397
  -493
  -602
  -725
  -862
  -1,011
  -1,174
  -1,350
  -1,537
  -1,737
  -1,949
  -2,172
  -2,406
  -2,652
  -2,908
  -3,175
  -3,453
  -3,743
  -4,044
  -4,356
  -4,681
  -5,018
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -31
  -47
  -69
  -99
  -137
  -185
  -243
  -314
  -397
  -493
  -602
  -725
  -862
  -1,011
  -1,174
  -1,350
  -1,537
  -1,737
  -1,949
  -2,172
  -2,406
  -2,652
  -2,908
  -3,175
  -3,453
  -3,743
  -4,044
  -4,356
  -4,681
  -5,018
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  41
  60
  84
  115
  152
  195
  245
  301
  362
  428
  496
  568
  640
  713
  786
  858
  929
  998
  1,066
  1,132
  1,197
  1,260
  1,323
  1,384
  1,446
  1,508
  1,570
  1,634
  1,699
  1,766
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  24
  37
  55
  80
  112
  152
  203
  264
  337
  422
  520
  631
  755
  893
  1,043
  1,207
  1,383
  1,571
  1,771
  1,984
  2,207
  2,442
  2,688
  2,945
  3,213
  3,492
  3,782
  4,084
  4,398
  4,724
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  65
  97
  139
  195
  264
  347
  448
  565
  699
  850
  1,016
  1,199
  1,395
  1,606
  1,829
  2,065
  2,312
  2,569
  2,837
  3,116
  3,404
  3,702
  4,011
  4,329
  4,659
  5,000
  5,352
  5,718
  6,097
  6,490
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  34
  50
  70
  96
  127
  163
  205
  251
  302
  356
  414
  473
  534
  594
  655
  715
  774
  832
  889
  944
  998
  1,050
  1,102
  1,154
  1,205
  1,257
  1,309
  1,362
  1,416
  1,472
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -24
  -37
  -55
  -80
  -112
  -152
  -203
  -264
  -337
  -422
  -520
  -631
  -755
  -893
  -1,043
  -1,207
  -1,383
  -1,571
  -1,771
  -1,984
  -2,207
  -2,442
  -2,688
  -2,945
  -3,213
  -3,492
  -3,782
  -4,084
  -4,398
  -4,724
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  11
  13
  15
  16
  15
  11
  2
  -13
  -35
  -65
  -106
  -158
  -222
  -298
  -388
  -491
  -608
  -739
  -883
  -1,040
  -1,209
  -1,391
  -1,585
  -1,791
  -2,007
  -2,235
  -2,473
  -2,722
  -2,982
  -3,253
Discount rate, %
 
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  9
  10
  10
  9
  7
  4
  1
  -3
  -7
  -11
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  24.5
  6.1
  1.6
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

China Advanced Construction Materials, Group, Inc. is a holding company. The Company's primary business operations are conducted through its subsidiaries and its variable interest entities, and its subsidiaries. The Company engages in the production of construction materials for infrastructure, commercial and residential developments. It is primarily focused on engineering, producing, servicing, delivering and pumping a range of ready-mix concrete materials for construction projects. Its ready-mixed concrete products consist of proportioned mixes it prepares and delivers in an unhardened plastic state for placement and shaping into designed forms at the worksite. The Company's products include ready-mixed concrete blends; controlled low-strength material (CLSM); concrete with customized fibers; soil cement, foundation concrete; compound admixture concrete; aggregate concrete; energy-saving phase change thermostat concrete, and C100 high performance concrete.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Advanced Construction Materials Gr (CADC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 290.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Return On Total Capital -20.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.9%
Return On Equity -62.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 2.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
EBITDA Margin -20%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Operating Margin -20%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Net Profit Margin -22.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CADC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CADC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $45 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Advanced Construction Materials Gr. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of China Advanced Construction Materials Gr. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CADC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for CADC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Advanced Construction Materials Gr, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Advanced Construction Materials Gr.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CADC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 122.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CADC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for China Advanced Construction Materials Gr.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Advanced Construction Materials Gr. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CADC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CADC are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Advanced Construction Materials Gr operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CADC is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11 million for China Advanced Construction Materials Gr - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.416 million for China Advanced Construction Materials Gr is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Advanced Construction Materials Gr at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SUM Summit Materia 32.65 32.78  hold
USCR U S Concrete 78.00 51.77  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ China ACM Announced Business Progress in Key Project   [Feb-26  07:39AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Form 10 K for China Advanced Construction Materials Group, Inc.   [Oct-02  03:00AM  Company Spotlight]
▶ WSP Holdings Will Reward Short Sellers Soon   [Aug-07  02:45PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ CHINA ADVANCED CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS GROUP, INC Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Beware Of 'Analysts' Assisting Pump & Dump Schemes   [Mar-06  02:32PM  at Seeking Alpha]
Financial statements of CADC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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