Intrinsic value of 8Point3 Energy Partners - CAFD

Previous Close

$14.31

  Intrinsic Value

$3.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$14.31

 
Intrinsic value

$3.37

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  454.55
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  213
  225
  236
  249
  262
  275
  290
  305
  320
  337
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  39
  52
  54
  58
  60
  64
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  88
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
Operating income, $m
  22
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
EBITDA, $m
  45
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  151
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  153
  162
  172
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Tax expense, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  27
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,335
  1,428
  1,534
  1,645
  1,759
  1,878
  2,002
  2,131
  2,265
  2,405
  2,550
  2,702
  2,860
  3,024
  3,196
  3,376
  3,563
  3,759
  3,964
  4,179
  4,403
  4,637
  4,883
  5,140
  5,409
  5,691
  5,987
  6,297
  6,622
  6,962
  7,319
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,321
  1,428
  1,534
  1,645
  1,759
  1,878
  2,002
  2,131
  2,265
  2,405
  2,550
  2,702
  2,860
  3,024
  3,196
  3,376
  3,563
  3,759
  3,964
  4,179
  4,403
  4,637
  4,883
  5,140
  5,409
  5,691
  5,987
  6,297
  6,622
  6,962
  7,319
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
Average production assets, $m
  605
  651
  699
  750
  802
  856
  913
  971
  1,033
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,304
  1,379
  1,457
  1,539
  1,624
  1,714
  1,807
  1,905
  2,007
  2,114
  2,226
  2,343
  2,466
  2,594
  2,729
  2,870
  3,018
  3,174
  3,336
Working capital, $m
  8
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Total debt, $m
  386
  470
  555
  644
  736
  831
  931
  1,034
  1,142
  1,254
  1,371
  1,492
  1,619
  1,752
  1,890
  2,034
  2,184
  2,342
  2,506
  2,678
  2,858
  3,047
  3,244
  3,450
  3,667
  3,893
  4,131
  4,379
  4,640
  4,913
  5,200
Total liabilities, $m
  1,063
  1,147
  1,232
  1,321
  1,413
  1,508
  1,608
  1,711
  1,819
  1,931
  2,048
  2,169
  2,296
  2,429
  2,567
  2,711
  2,861
  3,019
  3,183
  3,355
  3,535
  3,724
  3,921
  4,127
  4,344
  4,570
  4,808
  5,056
  5,317
  5,590
  5,877
Total equity, $m
  272
  281
  302
  324
  347
  370
  394
  420
  446
  474
  502
  532
  563
  596
  630
  665
  702
  741
  781
  823
  867
  914
  962
  1,013
  1,066
  1,121
  1,179
  1,240
  1,304
  1,372
  1,442
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,335
  1,428
  1,534
  1,645
  1,760
  1,878
  2,002
  2,131
  2,265
  2,405
  2,550
  2,701
  2,859
  3,025
  3,197
  3,376
  3,563
  3,760
  3,964
  4,178
  4,402
  4,638
  4,883
  5,140
  5,410
  5,691
  5,987
  6,296
  6,621
  6,962
  7,319
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.419
  1.670
  1.840
  1.990
  2.120
  2.250
  2.360
  2.460
  2.560
  2.650
  2.730
  2.800
  2.870
  2.940
  3.000
  3.060
  3.110
  3.160
  3.210
  3.250
  3.300
  3.340
  3.370
  3.410
  3.440
  3.470
  3.500
  3.530
  3.560
  3.580
  3.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.195
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  55
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -272
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
Free cash flow, $m
  -217
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  87
  86
  85
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  157
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  237
  249
  261
  273
  287
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  123
  21
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  107
  106
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  210
  221
  232
  243
  254
  267
  279
  293
  308
  322
  339
  355
  372
  391
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  63
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  136
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  32
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.1
  96.4
  94.6
  93.0
  91.3
  89.7
  88.1
  86.5
  85.0
  83.4
  82.0
  80.5
  79.0
  77.6
  76.2
  74.9
  73.5
  72.2
  70.9
  69.6
  68.4
  67.2
  66.0
  64.8
  63.6
  62.5
  61.4
  60.3
  59.2
  58.1

8point3 Energy Partners LP owns, operates and acquires solar energy generation projects. As of November 30, 2016, Company's portfolio comprised interests in 642 Megawatt (MW) of solar energy projects. The Company is developing projects under utility, commercial and industrial (C&I) and residential categories. As of November 30, 2016, the Company owned interests in nine utility-scale solar energy projects; four C&I solar energy projects, and a portfolio of residential Distributed generation (DG) Solar assets. The Company's utility project portfolio comprises projects, which include Maryland Solar, Solar Gen 2, Lost Hills Blackwell, North Star, RPU, Quinto, Hooper and Kingbird. The Company's C&I projects comprise UC Davis, Macy's California, Macy's Maryland and Kern. The Company's residential portfolio targets homeowners in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  8Point3 Energy Partners (CAFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.9
Price to Sales 18.5
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 454.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 141.2%
Total Debt to Equity 141.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.5%
EBITDA Margin 78.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Operating Margin 36.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.2%
Net Profit Margin 44.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.6%
Effective Tax Rate 138.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 74.1%

CAFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $61 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 8Point3 Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of 8Point3 Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for CAFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 8Point3 Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 8Point3 Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 8Point3 Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 8Point3 Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAFD are equal to 991%.

Life of production assets of 26.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 8Point3 Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAFD is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $272 million for 8Point3 Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.304 million for 8Point3 Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 8Point3 Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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Financial statements of CAFD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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