Intrinsic value of 8Point3 Energy Partners - CAFD

Previous Close

$15.55

  Intrinsic Value

$10.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-29%

  Value-price divergence*

+266%

Previous close

$15.55

 
Intrinsic value

$10.99

 
Up/down potential

-29%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+266%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  454.55
  21.40
  19.76
  18.28
  16.96
  15.76
  14.68
  13.72
  12.84
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  61
  74
  89
  105
  123
  142
  163
  185
  209
  234
  261
  289
  318
  349
  381
  414
  449
  485
  522
  561
  602
  644
  688
  733
  780
  830
  881
  934
  990
  1,048
  1,108
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  41
  48
  56
  65
  75
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  190
  206
  222
  240
  258
  276
  295
  316
  336
  358
  381
  404
  429
  454
  481
  509
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  39
  56
  63
  71
  79
  89
  99
  110
  122
  134
  147
  161
  174
  189
  205
  220
  237
  254
  273
  292
  310
  330
  352
  373
  396
  420
  444
  470
  496
  524
  553
Operating income, $m
  22
  19
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  75
  87
  100
  114
  129
  144
  160
  176
  194
  212
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  359
  384
  410
  437
  464
  494
  524
  555
EBITDA, $m
  45
  46
  59
  74
  89
  107
  125
  145
  166
  189
  212
  237
  264
  291
  320
  350
  381
  413
  447
  481
  518
  556
  595
  636
  678
  722
  768
  816
  866
  919
  973
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  13
  22
  30
  40
  51
  63
  76
  89
  104
  119
  136
  153
  171
  189
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  370
  396
  424
  453
  483
  514
  547
  581
  616
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
Tax expense, $m
  18
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  27
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,335
  1,610
  1,928
  2,280
  2,667
  3,088
  3,541
  4,027
  4,544
  5,092
  5,670
  6,277
  6,914
  7,580
  8,275
  9,000
  9,754
  10,538
  11,353
  12,200
  13,080
  13,995
  14,946
  15,934
  16,963
  18,033
  19,147
  20,307
  21,516
  22,776
  24,091
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,321
  1,610
  1,928
  2,280
  2,667
  3,088
  3,541
  4,027
  4,544
  5,092
  5,670
  6,277
  6,914
  7,580
  8,275
  9,000
  9,754
  10,538
  11,353
  12,200
  13,080
  13,995
  14,946
  15,934
  16,963
  18,033
  19,147
  20,307
  21,516
  22,776
  24,091
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
  0.046
Average production assets, $m
  605
  734
  879
  1,040
  1,216
  1,407
  1,614
  1,836
  2,071
  2,321
  2,585
  2,862
  3,152
  3,456
  3,772
  4,103
  4,446
  4,804
  5,175
  5,561
  5,963
  6,380
  6,813
  7,264
  7,733
  8,220
  8,728
  9,257
  9,808
  10,383
  10,982
Working capital, $m
  8
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
Total debt, $m
  386
  616
  871
  1,154
  1,465
  1,802
  2,166
  2,556
  2,972
  3,412
  3,876
  4,364
  4,875
  5,410
  5,968
  6,550
  7,155
  7,785
  8,439
  9,119
  9,826
  10,561
  11,324
  12,118
  12,944
  13,803
  14,698
  15,629
  16,600
  17,612
  18,668
Total liabilities, $m
  1,063
  1,293
  1,548
  1,831
  2,142
  2,479
  2,843
  3,233
  3,649
  4,089
  4,553
  5,041
  5,552
  6,087
  6,645
  7,227
  7,832
  8,462
  9,116
  9,796
  10,503
  11,238
  12,001
  12,795
  13,621
  14,480
  15,375
  16,306
  17,277
  18,289
  19,345
Total equity, $m
  272
  317
  380
  449
  525
  608
  698
  793
  895
  1,003
  1,117
  1,237
  1,362
  1,493
  1,630
  1,773
  1,921
  2,076
  2,236
  2,403
  2,577
  2,757
  2,944
  3,139
  3,342
  3,552
  3,772
  4,000
  4,239
  4,487
  4,746
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,335
  1,610
  1,928
  2,280
  2,667
  3,087
  3,541
  4,026
  4,544
  5,092
  5,670
  6,278
  6,914
  7,580
  8,275
  9,000
  9,753
  10,538
  11,352
  12,199
  13,080
  13,995
  14,945
  15,934
  16,963
  18,032
  19,147
  20,306
  21,516
  22,776
  24,091
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.419
  1.940
  2.290
  2.570
  2.790
  2.960
  3.110
  3.220
  3.320
  3.400
  3.470
  3.530
  3.580
  3.620
  3.660
  3.690
  3.720
  3.750
  3.770
  3.790
  3.810
  3.830
  3.850
  3.860
  3.870
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.920
  3.930
  3.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.195
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  28
  33
  40
  46
  54
  61
  70
  79
  88
  98
  109
  120
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  197
  211
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  32
  37
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  130
  141
  151
  163
  174
  186
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  302
  319
  338
  357
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  55
  32
  38
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  273
  289
  306
  323
  341
  361
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -40
  -46
  -54
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -143
  -156
  -169
  -183
  -197
  -211
  -227
  -243
  -259
  -276
  -294
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -373
  -395
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -129
  -145
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -207
  -221
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -357
  -372
  -386
  -401
  -417
  -433
  -451
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -529
  -551
  -575
  -599
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -272
  -152
  -173
  -194
  -216
  -238
  -261
  -282
  -306
  -329
  -352
  -375
  -399
  -424
  -448
  -473
  -500
  -526
  -555
  -583
  -612
  -644
  -676
  -710
  -745
  -782
  -821
  -861
  -903
  -948
  -994
Free cash flow, $m
  -217
  -120
  -135
  -151
  -166
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -227
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -467
  -488
  -509
  -532
  -555
  -580
  -606
  -634
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  87
  232
  255
  283
  310
  338
  364
  390
  415
  440
  464
  488
  511
  535
  558
  582
  605
  630
  655
  680
  707
  735
  764
  794
  826
  859
  894
  932
  971
  1,012
  1,056
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  123
  53
  59
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  104
  111
  119
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  305
  320
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  285
  314
  350
  384
  419
  453
  486
  519
  551
  583
  615
  645
  677
  708
  740
  771
  805
  838
  872
  908
  946
  985
  1,026
  1,069
  1,113
  1,160
  1,211
  1,263
  1,317
  1,376
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  165
  180
  199
  218
  237
  256
  274
  292
  309
  326
  343
  360
  376
  392
  409
  426
  443
  460
  478
  497
  516
  537
  558
  581
  604
  629
  655
  682
  712
  742
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  136
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -320
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  120
  117
  130
  142
  154
  167
  178
  188
  198
  207
  216
  225
  234
  242
  251
  259
  268
  277
  286
  295
  305
  316
  326
  338
  350
  363
  376
  391
  406
  422
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  110
  98
  98
  96
  92
  87
  80
  72
  64
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.6
  91.8
  88.3
  85.2
  82.3
  79.7
  77.3
  75.1
  73.1
  71.2
  69.4
  67.8
  66.2
  64.8
  63.4
  62.1
  60.9
  59.7
  58.6
  57.5
  56.5
  55.5
  54.5
  53.6
  52.7
  51.8
  51.0
  50.2
  49.4
  48.6

8point3 Energy Partners LP owns, operates and acquires solar energy generation projects. As of November 30, 2016, Company's portfolio comprised interests in 642 Megawatt (MW) of solar energy projects. The Company is developing projects under utility, commercial and industrial (C&I) and residential categories. As of November 30, 2016, the Company owned interests in nine utility-scale solar energy projects; four C&I solar energy projects, and a portfolio of residential Distributed generation (DG) Solar assets. The Company's utility project portfolio comprises projects, which include Maryland Solar, Solar Gen 2, Lost Hills Blackwell, North Star, RPU, Quinto, Hooper and Kingbird. The Company's C&I projects comprise UC Davis, Macy's California, Macy's Maryland and Kern. The Company's residential portfolio targets homeowners in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  8Point3 Energy Partners (CAFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.5
Price to Sales 20.2
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 454.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 141.2%
Total Debt to Equity 141.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.5%
EBITDA Margin 78.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Operating Margin 36.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.2%
Net Profit Margin 44.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.6%
Effective Tax Rate 138.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 74.1%

CAFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $61 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by 8Point3 Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of 8Point3 Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for CAFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of 8Point3 Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of 8Point3 Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for 8Point3 Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for 8Point3 Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAFD are equal to 991%.

Life of production assets of 26.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in 8Point3 Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAFD is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $272 million for 8Point3 Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.285 million for 8Point3 Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of 8Point3 Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ 8point3 Energy Partners posts 2Q profit   [Jun-29-17 09:39PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Is Wall Street Undervaluing Renewable Energy Yieldcos?   [Apr-29-17 09:38AM  Motley Fool]
▶ What is 8point3 Energy Partners Worth?   [Apr-14-17 08:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Last Week in Solar   [Apr-09-17 03:35PM  Motley Fool]
▶ First Solar Said to Withdraw From SunPower JV   [Apr-07-17 10:41AM  Investopedia]
▶ Vetr Upgrades 8point3 On Market Uncertainty   [Apr-06-17 04:37PM  Benzinga]
▶ First Solar seeking options to sell its stake in public energy company   [02:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 8point3 Energy Partners posts 1Q profit   [04:18PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CAFD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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