Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$31.38

  Intrinsic Value

$5.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

-266%

Previous close

$31.38

 
Intrinsic value

$5.80

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-266%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.60
  15.30
  14.27
  13.34
  12.51
  11.76
  11.08
  10.47
  9.93
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  294
  339
  387
  439
  494
  552
  613
  677
  745
  815
  888
  965
  1,044
  1,126
  1,212
  1,301
  1,394
  1,490
  1,591
  1,695
  1,803
  1,916
  2,033
  2,155
  2,283
  2,416
  2,554
  2,699
  2,850
  3,008
  3,173
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  247
  281
  319
  359
  400
  445
  491
  540
  590
  643
  697
  754
  814
  876
  940
  1,007
  1,077
  1,149
  1,225
  1,303
  1,384
  1,469
  1,557
  1,649
  1,746
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,174
  2,293
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  247
  281
  319
  359
  400
  445
  491
  540
  590
  643
  697
  754
  814
  876
  940
  1,007
  1,077
  1,149
  1,225
  1,303
  1,384
  1,469
  1,557
  1,649
  1,746
  1,846
  1,950
  2,059
  2,174
  2,293
Operating income, $m
  53
  92
  106
  120
  135
  152
  169
  186
  205
  224
  245
  268
  290
  313
  336
  361
  387
  414
  441
  470
  500
  532
  564
  598
  633
  670
  709
  749
  791
  835
  880
EBITDA, $m
  159
  216
  247
  279
  314
  351
  390
  431
  474
  519
  565
  614
  664
  717
  772
  828
  887
  949
  1,012
  1,079
  1,148
  1,219
  1,294
  1,372
  1,453
  1,538
  1,626
  1,718
  1,814
  1,915
  2,020
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  237
  254
  272
  290
  309
  329
  350
  372
  395
  418
  443
  468
  495
  523
  552
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  107
  115
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  280
  296
  311
  328
Tax expense, $m
  4
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
Net income, $m
  6
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,056
  2,322
  2,653
  3,007
  3,383
  3,781
  4,200
  4,640
  5,101
  5,582
  6,084
  6,606
  7,150
  7,716
  8,303
  8,914
  9,549
  10,209
  10,894
  11,608
  12,349
  13,122
  13,926
  14,763
  15,636
  16,546
  17,496
  18,487
  19,522
  20,604
  21,734
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,010
  2,322
  2,653
  3,007
  3,383
  3,781
  4,200
  4,640
  5,101
  5,582
  6,084
  6,606
  7,150
  7,716
  8,303
  8,914
  9,549
  10,209
  10,894
  11,608
  12,349
  13,122
  13,926
  14,763
  15,636
  16,546
  17,496
  18,487
  19,522
  20,604
  21,734
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  1,784
  2,057
  2,350
  2,664
  2,997
  3,350
  3,721
  4,111
  4,519
  4,945
  5,390
  5,853
  6,334
  6,835
  7,356
  7,897
  8,460
  9,044
  9,652
  10,284
  10,941
  11,625
  12,337
  13,079
  13,852
  14,659
  15,500
  16,378
  17,295
  18,253
  19,255
Working capital, $m
  -29
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  181
  192
  202
  214
  225
Total debt, $m
  1,476
  1,670
  1,926
  2,199
  2,490
  2,797
  3,120
  3,460
  3,816
  4,187
  4,575
  4,978
  5,398
  5,834
  6,288
  6,760
  7,250
  7,759
  8,289
  8,839
  9,412
  10,008
  10,629
  11,275
  11,949
  12,652
  13,385
  14,150
  14,949
  15,784
  16,656
Total liabilities, $m
  1,598
  1,792
  2,048
  2,321
  2,612
  2,919
  3,242
  3,582
  3,938
  4,309
  4,697
  5,100
  5,520
  5,956
  6,410
  6,882
  7,372
  7,881
  8,411
  8,961
  9,534
  10,130
  10,751
  11,397
  12,071
  12,774
  13,507
  14,272
  15,071
  15,906
  16,778
Total equity, $m
  458
  529
  605
  686
  771
  862
  958
  1,058
  1,163
  1,273
  1,387
  1,506
  1,630
  1,759
  1,893
  2,032
  2,177
  2,328
  2,484
  2,647
  2,816
  2,992
  3,175
  3,366
  3,565
  3,773
  3,989
  4,215
  4,451
  4,698
  4,955
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,056
  2,321
  2,653
  3,007
  3,383
  3,781
  4,200
  4,640
  5,101
  5,582
  6,084
  6,606
  7,150
  7,715
  8,303
  8,914
  9,549
  10,209
  10,895
  11,608
  12,350
  13,122
  13,926
  14,763
  15,636
  16,547
  17,496
  18,487
  19,522
  20,604
  21,733
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.223
  3.160
  3.180
  3.210
  3.230
  3.240
  3.260
  3.270
  3.280
  3.290
  3.300
  3.300
  3.310
  3.320
  3.320
  3.330
  3.330
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  227
  239
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  123
  141
  159
  179
  200
  222
  245
  269
  294
  321
  346
  375
  404
  435
  467
  501
  535
  571
  608
  647
  688
  730
  774
  820
  867
  917
  969
  1,023
  1,080
  1,139
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  154
  175
  198
  222
  247
  273
  301
  330
  361
  392
  425
  459
  495
  532
  570
  610
  652
  695
  740
  787
  835
  886
  939
  994
  1,051
  1,111
  1,174
  1,239
  1,307
  1,379
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  151
  172
  194
  218
  243
  269
  297
  325
  356
  387
  419
  453
  489
  526
  564
  604
  645
  688
  733
  779
  827
  878
  930
  985
  1,042
  1,101
  1,164
  1,228
  1,296
  1,367
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -106
  -122
  -139
  -158
  -177
  -198
  -220
  -243
  -267
  -293
  -319
  -346
  -375
  -404
  -435
  -467
  -501
  -535
  -571
  -608
  -647
  -688
  -730
  -774
  -820
  -867
  -917
  -969
  -1,023
  -1,080
New CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -273
  -294
  -314
  -333
  -352
  -371
  -390
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -463
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -541
  -562
  -584
  -608
  -632
  -657
  -684
  -712
  -742
  -773
  -806
  -841
  -878
  -917
  -958
  -1,001
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -379
  -416
  -453
  -491
  -529
  -569
  -610
  -651
  -693
  -738
  -782
  -828
  -876
  -925
  -976
  -1,029
  -1,085
  -1,143
  -1,203
  -1,265
  -1,331
  -1,400
  -1,472
  -1,547
  -1,626
  -1,708
  -1,795
  -1,886
  -1,981
  -2,081
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -227
  -243
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -338
  -350
  -363
  -375
  -387
  -400
  -413
  -426
  -440
  -455
  -470
  -487
  -504
  -522
  -542
  -562
  -584
  -607
  -632
  -658
  -685
  -714
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  240
  256
  273
  290
  307
  323
  340
  356
  371
  387
  403
  420
  437
  454
  472
  490
  509
  529
  551
  573
  596
  621
  647
  674
  703
  733
  765
  799
  835
  872
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  44
  44
  44
  43
  43
  41
  40
  39
  38
  36
  35
  34
  32
  31
  30
  29
  27
  26
  25
  24
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  280
  297
  315
  333
  351
  367
  384
  400
  414
  430
  444
  460
  476
  492
  508
  525
  543
  561
  582
  603
  625
  648
  673
  699
  727
  755
  786
  819
  854
  890
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  53
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.7
  88.4
  83.9
  80.1
  76.8
  73.9
  71.4
  69.2
  67.2
  65.6
  64.1
  62.8
  61.7
  60.7
  59.9
  59.1
  58.4
  57.8
  57.2
  56.7
  56.3
  55.9
  55.5
  55.2
  55.0
  54.7
  54.5
  54.3
  54.1
  53.9

CAI International, Inc. is a transportation finance and logistics company. The Company purchases equipment, primarily intermodal shipping containers and railcars, which it leases to its customers, and also manages equipment for third-party investors. The Company operates through three segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. In operating the Company's fleet, it leases, re-leases and disposes equipment and contracts for the repair, repositioning and storage of equipment. The Company also provides domestic and international logistics services. The Company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term leases, short-term leases and finance leases. The Company's long-term leases have terms of one year or more and specify the number of containers to be leased, the pick-up and drop-off locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 99.7
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 606.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.048 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CAI International tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-19-17 04:43PM  Associated Press]
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▶ CAI International beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 09:37PM  Associated Press]
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▶ CAI International beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-20-17 04:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for April 6th   [Apr-06-17 11:59AM  Zacks]
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Financial statements of CAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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