Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

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  Intrinsic Value

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.60
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  294
  343
  396
  454
  515
  580
  650
  722
  799
  879
  963
  1,050
  1,142
  1,236
  1,335
  1,437
  1,544
  1,655
  1,770
  1,889
  2,013
  2,143
  2,277
  2,417
  2,563
  2,715
  2,874
  3,039
  3,212
  3,392
  3,581
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  288
  329
  374
  421
  471
  524
  579
  637
  697
  759
  825
  893
  965
  1,039
  1,116
  1,196
  1,279
  1,365
  1,455
  1,548
  1,645
  1,747
  1,852
  1,962
  2,077
  2,196
  2,321
  2,451
  2,587
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  250
  288
  329
  374
  421
  471
  524
  579
  637
  697
  759
  825
  893
  965
  1,039
  1,116
  1,196
  1,279
  1,365
  1,455
  1,548
  1,645
  1,747
  1,852
  1,962
  2,077
  2,196
  2,321
  2,451
  2,587
Operating income, $m
  53
  94
  108
  124
  141
  159
  179
  199
  220
  242
  266
  291
  317
  343
  370
  399
  428
  459
  491
  524
  559
  594
  632
  671
  711
  753
  797
  843
  891
  941
  993
EBITDA, $m
  159
  218
  251
  288
  327
  368
  412
  458
  507
  557
  611
  666
  724
  784
  846
  911
  979
  1,049
  1,122
  1,198
  1,277
  1,358
  1,444
  1,533
  1,625
  1,722
  1,822
  1,927
  2,036
  2,151
  2,270
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  50
  59
  69
  80
  91
  103
  116
  129
  144
  158
  174
  190
  207
  225
  243
  262
  281
  302
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  528
  558
  590
  624
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  44
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  117
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  316
  333
  351
  370
Tax expense, $m
  4
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
Net income, $m
  6
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,056
  2,350
  2,715
  3,108
  3,528
  3,976
  4,449
  4,948
  5,473
  6,022
  6,596
  7,195
  7,819
  8,468
  9,143
  9,845
  10,575
  11,333
  12,120
  12,939
  13,791
  14,676
  15,598
  16,558
  17,557
  18,599
  19,685
  20,818
  22,001
  23,236
  24,525
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,010
  2,350
  2,715
  3,108
  3,528
  3,976
  4,449
  4,948
  5,473
  6,022
  6,596
  7,195
  7,819
  8,468
  9,143
  9,845
  10,575
  11,333
  12,120
  12,939
  13,791
  14,676
  15,598
  16,558
  17,557
  18,599
  19,685
  20,818
  22,001
  23,236
  24,525
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  1,784
  1,028
  1,187
  1,359
  1,543
  1,738
  1,946
  2,164
  2,393
  2,633
  2,884
  3,146
  3,419
  3,703
  3,998
  4,305
  4,624
  4,955
  5,300
  5,658
  6,030
  6,418
  6,821
  7,240
  7,677
  8,133
  8,608
  9,103
  9,620
  10,160
  10,724
Working capital, $m
  -29
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  279
Total debt, $m
  1,476
  1,692
  1,974
  2,277
  2,602
  2,947
  3,313
  3,698
  4,103
  4,527
  4,970
  5,432
  5,914
  6,415
  6,937
  7,478
  8,042
  8,627
  9,235
  9,867
  10,524
  11,208
  11,920
  12,661
  13,432
  14,236
  15,075
  15,950
  16,863
  17,816
  18,812
Total liabilities, $m
  1,598
  1,814
  2,096
  2,399
  2,724
  3,069
  3,435
  3,820
  4,225
  4,649
  5,092
  5,554
  6,036
  6,537
  7,059
  7,600
  8,164
  8,749
  9,357
  9,989
  10,646
  11,330
  12,042
  12,783
  13,554
  14,358
  15,197
  16,072
  16,985
  17,938
  18,934
Total equity, $m
  458
  536
  619
  709
  804
  906
  1,014
  1,128
  1,248
  1,373
  1,504
  1,640
  1,783
  1,931
  2,085
  2,245
  2,411
  2,584
  2,763
  2,950
  3,144
  3,346
  3,556
  3,775
  4,003
  4,241
  4,488
  4,747
  5,016
  5,298
  5,592
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,056
  2,350
  2,715
  3,108
  3,528
  3,975
  4,449
  4,948
  5,473
  6,022
  6,596
  7,194
  7,819
  8,468
  9,144
  9,845
  10,575
  11,333
  12,120
  12,939
  13,790
  14,676
  15,598
  16,558
  17,557
  18,599
  19,685
  20,819
  22,001
  23,236
  24,526
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.223
  3.160
  3.190
  3.210
  3.230
  3.250
  3.270
  3.280
  3.290
  3.300
  3.300
  3.310
  3.320
  3.320
  3.330
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  124
  143
  163
  185
  209
  233
  259
  286
  315
  345
  375
  407
  441
  476
  513
  550
  590
  631
  674
  718
  764
  812
  862
  914
  968
  1,025
  1,084
  1,145
  1,210
  1,277
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  156
  179
  204
  230
  258
  288
  320
  353
  387
  423
  460
  499
  540
  582
  626
  672
  720
  769
  820
  874
  929
  987
  1,047
  1,110
  1,175
  1,243
  1,314
  1,388
  1,466
  1,547
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  -718
  175
  199
  225
  253
  283
  314
  347
  381
  417
  453
  492
  533
  575
  618
  664
  711
  760
  811
  864
  919
  976
  1,036
  1,098
  1,163
  1,231
  1,301
  1,375
  1,452
  1,532
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -105
  -122
  -141
  -162
  -184
  -207
  -232
  -258
  -285
  -313
  -343
  -375
  -407
  -441
  -476
  -513
  -550
  -590
  -631
  -674
  -718
  -764
  -812
  -862
  -914
  -968
  -1,025
  -1,084
  -1,145
  -1,210
New CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -147
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -437
  -456
  -475
  -495
  -517
  -540
  -564
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -252
  -282
  -313
  -346
  -380
  -414
  -450
  -487
  -525
  -564
  -605
  -648
  -691
  -736
  -783
  -832
  -881
  -934
  -989
  -1,046
  -1,105
  -1,167
  -1,232
  -1,299
  -1,370
  -1,443
  -1,520
  -1,601
  -1,685
  -1,774
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -970
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -140
  -144
  -148
  -152
  -155
  -158
  -161
  -164
  -168
  -171
  -174
  -178
  -182
  -186
  -191
  -196
  -201
  -206
  -212
  -219
  -226
  -233
  -242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  262
  282
  303
  325
  345
  366
  385
  405
  424
  443
  462
  482
  501
  521
  542
  563
  585
  608
  632
  657
  684
  712
  741
  772
  804
  839
  875
  913
  953
  996
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  785
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  1,047
  282
  303
  325
  345
  366
  385
  405
  424
  443
  462
  482
  501
  521
  542
  563
  585
  608
  632
  657
  684
  712
  741
  772
  804
  839
  875
  913
  953
  996
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  -707
  174
  189
  204
  219
  234
  249
  265
  280
  295
  311
  327
  343
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521
  545
  571
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
  754
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -78
  -83
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -294
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  91
  100
  109
  117
  126
  136
  145
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  73
  70
  66
  61
  56
  50
  44
  38
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2
  37.2

CAI International, Inc. operates as transportation finance and logistics company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Container Leasing, Rail Leasing, and Logistics. It leases, re-leases, and disposes containers; and contracts for the repair, repositioning, and storage of containers. The company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term, short-term, and finance leases primarily to container shipping lines, freight forwarders, and other transportation companies. It also sells containers; and provides container management services to third-party investors, as well as sells used containers. In addition, the company leases railcars consisting of box cars for paper and forest products; covered hoppers for grain, cement, sand, plastic pallets, and other industrial products; general purpose tank cars that are used to transport food-grade and other non-hazardous commodities; gondolas for coal; and general service flat cars. Further, it offers domestic and international logistics services. As of December 31, 2015, the company had a container fleet comprised 1,207,075 cost equivalent units; and an owned fleet of 5,096 railcars in North America. The company was formerly known as Container Applications International, Inc. and changed its name to CAI International, Inc. in February 2007. CAI International, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 76.2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 299.5%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.345 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of CAI Financial statements of CAI Annual reports of CAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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