Intrinsic value of CAI International - CAI

Previous Close

$27.61

  Intrinsic Value

$5.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

  Value-price divergence*

-163%

Previous close

$27.61

 
Intrinsic value

$5.71

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-163%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.60
  22.40
  20.66
  19.09
  17.68
  16.42
  15.27
  14.25
  13.32
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.91
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
Revenue, $m
  294
  360
  434
  517
  609
  708
  817
  933
  1,057
  1,189
  1,329
  1,476
  1,631
  1,792
  1,961
  2,137
  2,321
  2,511
  2,710
  2,916
  3,131
  3,353
  3,585
  3,825
  4,076
  4,336
  4,607
  4,889
  5,183
  5,489
  5,809
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  262
  315
  375
  441
  514
  592
  676
  766
  861
  962
  1,067
  1,178
  1,295
  1,417
  1,544
  1,677
  1,815
  1,958
  2,107
  2,262
  2,423
  2,590
  2,764
  2,945
  3,133
  3,329
  3,533
  3,745
  3,966
  4,197
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  241
  262
  315
  375
  441
  514
  592
  676
  766
  861
  962
  1,067
  1,178
  1,295
  1,417
  1,544
  1,677
  1,815
  1,958
  2,107
  2,262
  2,423
  2,590
  2,764
  2,945
  3,133
  3,329
  3,533
  3,745
  3,966
  4,197
Operating income, $m
  53
  98
  119
  142
  167
  195
  225
  257
  292
  328
  367
  410
  452
  497
  544
  593
  644
  697
  752
  809
  869
  930
  995
  1,061
  1,131
  1,203
  1,278
  1,356
  1,438
  1,523
  1,612
EBITDA, $m
  159
  229
  276
  329
  387
  451
  520
  594
  673
  757
  846
  940
  1,038
  1,141
  1,248
  1,360
  1,477
  1,599
  1,725
  1,856
  1,993
  2,134
  2,282
  2,435
  2,594
  2,760
  2,932
  3,112
  3,299
  3,494
  3,697
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  50
  62
  76
  91
  108
  127
  147
  168
  191
  216
  242
  269
  297
  327
  359
  391
  425
  461
  497
  535
  575
  616
  659
  704
  750
  798
  848
  901
  955
  1,012
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  48
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  110
  123
  137
  151
  168
  183
  200
  217
  234
  253
  272
  291
  312
  333
  355
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  600
Tax expense, $m
  4
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
Net income, $m
  6
  35
  41
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  184
  198
  213
  228
  243
  259
  276
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  415
  438

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,056
  2,465
  2,974
  3,542
  4,168
  4,852
  5,594
  6,391
  7,242
  8,146
  9,103
  10,110
  11,168
  12,275
  13,432
  14,638
  15,894
  17,202
  18,561
  19,974
  21,442
  22,968
  24,553
  26,202
  27,916
  29,699
  31,555
  33,487
  35,501
  37,599
  39,787
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,010
  2,465
  2,974
  3,542
  4,168
  4,852
  5,594
  6,391
  7,242
  8,146
  9,103
  10,110
  11,168
  12,275
  13,432
  14,638
  15,894
  17,202
  18,561
  19,974
  21,442
  22,968
  24,553
  26,202
  27,916
  29,699
  31,555
  33,487
  35,501
  37,599
  39,787
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  1,784
  2,184
  2,635
  3,138
  3,693
  4,299
  4,956
  5,662
  6,416
  7,217
  8,065
  8,957
  9,894
  10,875
  11,900
  12,968
  14,081
  15,239
  16,444
  17,695
  18,996
  20,348
  21,752
  23,213
  24,731
  26,311
  27,955
  29,667
  31,451
  33,310
  35,248
Working capital, $m
  -29
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  222
  238
  255
  272
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
  412
Total debt, $m
  1,476
  1,781
  2,174
  2,612
  3,096
  3,624
  4,196
  4,812
  5,469
  6,167
  6,905
  7,683
  8,500
  9,354
  10,247
  11,179
  12,149
  13,158
  14,207
  15,298
  16,431
  17,609
  18,833
  20,106
  21,429
  22,806
  24,238
  25,730
  27,284
  28,904
  30,594
Total liabilities, $m
  1,598
  1,903
  2,296
  2,734
  3,218
  3,746
  4,318
  4,934
  5,591
  6,289
  7,027
  7,805
  8,622
  9,476
  10,369
  11,301
  12,271
  13,280
  14,329
  15,420
  16,553
  17,731
  18,955
  20,228
  21,551
  22,928
  24,360
  25,852
  27,406
  29,026
  30,716
Total equity, $m
  458
  562
  678
  808
  950
  1,106
  1,275
  1,457
  1,651
  1,857
  2,075
  2,305
  2,546
  2,799
  3,062
  3,337
  3,624
  3,922
  4,232
  4,554
  4,889
  5,237
  5,598
  5,974
  6,365
  6,771
  7,195
  7,635
  8,094
  8,573
  9,071
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,056
  2,465
  2,974
  3,542
  4,168
  4,852
  5,593
  6,391
  7,242
  8,146
  9,102
  10,110
  11,168
  12,275
  13,431
  14,638
  15,895
  17,202
  18,561
  19,974
  21,442
  22,968
  24,553
  26,202
  27,916
  29,699
  31,555
  33,487
  35,500
  37,599
  39,787
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.223
  3.170
  3.210
  3.230
  3.260
  3.280
  3.290
  3.300
  3.310
  3.320
  3.330
  3.330
  3.340
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.360
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228
  0.228

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  35
  41
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  184
  198
  213
  228
  243
  259
  276
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  415
  438
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  131
  158
  187
  220
  256
  295
  337
  381
  429
  479
  530
  585
  643
  704
  767
  833
  902
  973
  1,047
  1,124
  1,204
  1,287
  1,374
  1,463
  1,557
  1,654
  1,755
  1,861
  1,971
  2,086
Funds from operations, $m
  127
  166
  199
  235
  275
  319
  366
  417
  471
  529
  589
  653
  719
  789
  862
  938
  1,018
  1,100
  1,186
  1,275
  1,367
  1,463
  1,563
  1,667
  1,775
  1,888
  2,005
  2,126
  2,253
  2,386
  2,524
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  161
  193
  229
  269
  312
  359
  409
  462
  519
  579
  642
  708
  778
  850
  926
  1,005
  1,086
  1,172
  1,260
  1,352
  1,448
  1,547
  1,650
  1,757
  1,869
  1,985
  2,106
  2,232
  2,364
  2,501
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -106
  -129
  -156
  -186
  -219
  -254
  -293
  -335
  -380
  -427
  -477
  -530
  -585
  -643
  -704
  -767
  -833
  -902
  -973
  -1,047
  -1,124
  -1,204
  -1,287
  -1,374
  -1,463
  -1,557
  -1,654
  -1,755
  -1,861
  -1,971
New CAPEX, $m
  -251
  -400
  -451
  -503
  -555
  -606
  -657
  -706
  -754
  -801
  -847
  -893
  -937
  -981
  -1,025
  -1,069
  -1,113
  -1,158
  -1,204
  -1,252
  -1,301
  -1,352
  -1,405
  -1,460
  -1,519
  -1,580
  -1,644
  -1,712
  -1,784
  -1,859
  -1,938
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -182
  -506
  -580
  -659
  -741
  -825
  -911
  -999
  -1,089
  -1,181
  -1,274
  -1,370
  -1,467
  -1,566
  -1,668
  -1,773
  -1,880
  -1,991
  -2,106
  -2,225
  -2,348
  -2,476
  -2,609
  -2,747
  -2,893
  -3,043
  -3,201
  -3,366
  -3,539
  -3,720
  -3,909
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -344
  -387
  -430
  -472
  -513
  -552
  -590
  -627
  -662
  -695
  -728
  -759
  -789
  -818
  -847
  -876
  -905
  -934
  -965
  -996
  -1,028
  -1,062
  -1,097
  -1,135
  -1,174
  -1,216
  -1,260
  -1,307
  -1,356
  -1,408
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  56
  351
  393
  438
  484
  528
  572
  615
  657
  698
  738
  778
  816
  855
  893
  931
  970
  1,009
  1,049
  1,091
  1,133
  1,178
  1,224
  1,273
  1,323
  1,377
  1,433
  1,492
  1,554
  1,620
  1,689
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  97
  101
  104
  106
  108
  107
  107
  107
  106
  104
  102
  100
  97
  94
  92
  89
  85
  82
  79
  76
  73
  70
  67
  64
  61
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  47
  420
  468
  519
  571
  621
  669
  716
  761
  804
  846
  885
  923
  962
  999
  1,035
  1,072
  1,109
  1,146
  1,185
  1,225
  1,267
  1,309
  1,355
  1,402
  1,453
  1,506
  1,562
  1,621
  1,684
  1,750
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  76
  81
  90
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  143
  151
  157
  165
  173
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  229
  238
  248
  257
  268
  278
  290
  302
  314
  328
  342
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -156
  -169
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -441
  -459
  -478
  -499
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -28
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
Discount rate, %
 
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -25
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.6
  79.5
  72.1
  66.0
  60.9
  56.6
  53.0
  49.9
  47.3
  45.1
  43.2
  41.5
  40.1
  38.8
  37.7
  36.8
  35.9
  35.2
  34.5
  33.9
  33.4
  32.9
  32.5
  32.2
  31.8
  31.5
  31.3
  31.1
  30.8
  30.7

CAI International, Inc. operates as transportation finance and logistics company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Container Leasing, Rail Leasing, and Logistics. It leases, re-leases, and disposes containers; and contracts for the repair, repositioning, and storage of containers. The company leases its container equipment to lessees under long-term, short-term, and finance leases primarily to container shipping lines, freight forwarders, and other transportation companies. It also sells containers; and provides container management services to third-party investors, as well as sells used containers. In addition, the company leases railcars consisting of box cars for paper and forest products; covered hoppers for grain, cement, sand, plastic pallets, and other industrial products; general purpose tank cars that are used to transport food-grade and other non-hazardous commodities; gondolas for coal; and general service flat cars. Further, it offers domestic and international logistics services. As of December 31, 2015, the company had a container fleet comprised 1,207,075 cost equivalent units; and an owned fleet of 5,096 railcars in North America. The company was formerly known as Container Applications International, Inc. and changed its name to CAI International, Inc. in February 2007. CAI International, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CAI International (CAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 87.7
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 301.3%
Total Debt to Equity 322.3%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 92.8%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $294 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CAI International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CAI International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for CAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CAI International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CAI International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CAI International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CAI International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAI are equal to 606.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CAI International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAI is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $458 million for CAI International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.345 million for CAI International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CAI International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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Stock chart of CAI Financial statements of CAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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