Intrinsic value of China Auto Logistics - CALI

Previous Close

$3.40

  Intrinsic Value

$864.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$3.40

 
Intrinsic value

$864.70

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CALI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.71
  47.90
  43.61
  39.75
  36.27
  33.15
  30.33
  27.80
  25.52
  23.47
  21.62
  19.96
  18.46
  17.12
  15.90
  14.81
  13.83
  12.95
  12.15
  11.44
  10.80
  10.22
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.25
  7.02
Revenue, $m
  467
  691
  992
  1,386
  1,889
  2,515
  3,278
  4,189
  5,258
  6,492
  7,896
  9,472
  11,221
  13,141
  15,231
  17,488
  19,907
  22,484
  25,217
  28,102
  31,136
  34,316
  37,643
  41,115
  44,734
  48,502
  52,421
  56,495
  60,729
  65,129
  69,701
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  460
  661
  923
  1,258
  1,675
  2,183
  2,790
  3,502
  4,324
  5,259
  6,308
  7,473
  8,752
  10,144
  11,647
  13,258
  14,975
  16,795
  18,716
  20,736
  22,855
  25,070
  27,383
  29,793
  32,302
  34,912
  37,626
  40,445
  43,376
  46,421
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
Total operating expenses, $m
  467
  624
  829
  1,095
  1,435
  1,856
  2,369
  2,980
  3,697
  4,524
  5,464
  6,518
  7,688
  8,973
  10,370
  11,879
  13,496
  15,218
  17,045
  18,972
  20,998
  23,124
  25,345
  27,665
  30,082
  32,599
  35,216
  37,938
  40,764
  43,703
  46,757
Operating income, $m
  0
  67
  163
  291
  454
  659
  909
  1,209
  1,561
  1,969
  2,432
  2,954
  3,533
  4,169
  4,861
  5,609
  6,411
  7,266
  8,173
  9,130
  10,137
  11,193
  12,297
  13,450
  14,652
  15,903
  17,205
  18,558
  19,964
  21,426
  22,945
EBITDA, $m
  0
  67
  163
  291
  454
  659
  909
  1,209
  1,561
  1,969
  2,432
  2,954
  3,533
  4,169
  4,861
  5,609
  6,411
  7,266
  8,173
  9,130
  10,137
  11,193
  12,297
  13,450
  14,652
  15,903
  17,205
  18,558
  19,964
  21,426
  22,945
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  4
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  41
  53
  67
  83
  102
  123
  146
  171
  199
  228
  260
  294
  330
  368
  409
  450
  494
  540
  588
  638
  689
  743
  799
  857
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  63
  156
  280
  438
  636
  878
  1,168
  1,508
  1,902
  2,349
  2,852
  3,410
  4,023
  4,690
  5,410
  6,183
  7,006
  7,879
  8,800
  9,769
  10,784
  11,847
  12,956
  14,112
  15,315
  16,567
  17,868
  19,221
  20,627
  22,088
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  42
  76
  118
  172
  237
  315
  407
  513
  634
  770
  921
  1,086
  1,266
  1,461
  1,669
  1,892
  2,127
  2,376
  2,638
  2,912
  3,199
  3,498
  3,810
  4,135
  4,473
  4,824
  5,190
  5,569
  5,964
Net income, $m
  4
  46
  114
  204
  320
  465
  641
  853
  1,101
  1,388
  1,715
  2,082
  2,489
  2,937
  3,424
  3,950
  4,513
  5,114
  5,751
  6,424
  7,131
  7,873
  8,648
  9,458
  10,302
  11,180
  12,094
  13,044
  14,031
  15,057
  16,124

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  161
  234
  336
  469
  639
  851
  1,109
  1,417
  1,779
  2,196
  2,671
  3,204
  3,796
  4,446
  5,153
  5,916
  6,734
  7,606
  8,531
  9,507
  10,533
  11,609
  12,734
  13,909
  15,133
  16,408
  17,734
  19,112
  20,544
  22,033
  23,580
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  234
  336
  469
  639
  851
  1,109
  1,417
  1,779
  2,196
  2,671
  3,204
  3,796
  4,446
  5,153
  5,916
  6,734
  7,606
  8,531
  9,507
  10,533
  11,609
  12,734
  13,909
  15,133
  16,408
  17,734
  19,112
  20,544
  22,033
  23,580
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.956
  2.953
  2.952
  2.955
  2.956
  2.955
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
  2.956
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  23
  157
  225
  315
  429
  571
  744
  951
  1,194
  1,474
  1,792
  2,150
  2,547
  2,983
  3,457
  3,970
  4,519
  5,104
  5,724
  6,379
  7,068
  7,790
  8,545
  9,333
  10,155
  11,010
  11,900
  12,824
  13,785
  14,784
  15,822
Total debt, $m
  86
  147
  234
  347
  491
  671
  889
  1,151
  1,457
  1,811
  2,214
  2,666
  3,168
  3,719
  4,318
  4,966
  5,660
  6,399
  7,183
  8,011
  8,881
  9,793
  10,748
  11,744
  12,782
  13,863
  14,987
  16,156
  17,371
  18,633
  19,945
Total liabilities, $m
  137
  198
  285
  398
  542
  722
  940
  1,202
  1,508
  1,862
  2,265
  2,717
  3,219
  3,770
  4,369
  5,017
  5,711
  6,450
  7,234
  8,062
  8,932
  9,844
  10,799
  11,795
  12,833
  13,914
  15,038
  16,207
  17,422
  18,684
  19,996
Total equity, $m
  24
  36
  51
  71
  97
  129
  169
  215
  270
  334
  406
  487
  577
  676
  783
  899
  1,024
  1,156
  1,297
  1,445
  1,601
  1,765
  1,936
  2,114
  2,300
  2,494
  2,696
  2,905
  3,123
  3,349
  3,584
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  161
  234
  336
  469
  639
  851
  1,109
  1,417
  1,778
  2,196
  2,671
  3,204
  3,796
  4,446
  5,152
  5,916
  6,735
  7,606
  8,531
  9,507
  10,533
  11,609
  12,735
  13,909
  15,133
  16,408
  17,734
  19,112
  20,545
  22,033
  23,580
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.583
  4.140
  4.580
  4.860
  5.050
  5.180
  5.280
  5.340
  5.390
  5.430
  5.450
  5.470
  5.490
  5.500
  5.510
  5.520
  5.530
  5.530
  5.540
  5.540
  5.550
  5.550
  5.550
  5.550
  5.560
  5.560
  5.560
  5.560
  5.560
  5.560
  5.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  46
  114
  204
  320
  465
  641
  853
  1,101
  1,388
  1,715
  2,082
  2,489
  2,937
  3,424
  3,950
  4,513
  5,114
  5,751
  6,424
  7,131
  7,873
  8,648
  9,458
  10,302
  11,180
  12,094
  13,044
  14,031
  15,057
  16,124
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -99
  46
  114
  204
  320
  465
  641
  853
  1,101
  1,388
  1,715
  2,082
  2,489
  2,937
  3,424
  3,950
  4,513
  5,114
  5,751
  6,424
  7,131
  7,873
  8,648
  9,458
  10,302
  11,180
  12,094
  13,044
  14,031
  15,057
  16,124
Change in working capital, $m
  -49
  51
  68
  89
  114
  142
  173
  207
  243
  280
  319
  358
  397
  436
  474
  512
  549
  585
  620
  655
  689
  722
  755
  788
  822
  855
  890
  925
  961
  999
  1,038
Cash from operations, $m
  -50
  -5
  46
  115
  206
  322
  468
  646
  858
  1,108
  1,396
  1,724
  2,092
  2,501
  2,949
  3,437
  3,964
  4,529
  5,131
  5,769
  6,442
  7,151
  7,893
  8,669
  9,480
  10,325
  11,204
  12,119
  13,070
  14,059
  15,086
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -29
  -5
  46
  115
  206
  322
  468
  646
  858
  1,108
  1,396
  1,724
  2,092
  2,501
  2,949
  3,437
  3,964
  4,529
  5,131
  5,769
  6,442
  7,151
  7,893
  8,669
  9,480
  10,325
  11,204
  12,119
  13,070
  14,059
  15,086
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  64
  86
  113
  144
  180
  219
  261
  307
  354
  403
  452
  502
  551
  600
  647
  694
  740
  784
  828
  870
  912
  954
  996
  1,038
  1,081
  1,124
  1,169
  1,215
  1,262
  1,312
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  64
  86
  113
  144
  180
  219
  261
  307
  354
  403
  452
  502
  551
  600
  647
  694
  740
  784
  828
  870
  912
  954
  996
  1,038
  1,081
  1,124
  1,169
  1,215
  1,262
  1,312
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  59
  132
  228
  350
  502
  687
  907
  1,165
  1,462
  1,799
  2,176
  2,594
  3,052
  3,549
  4,085
  4,658
  5,269
  5,915
  6,597
  7,313
  8,063
  8,847
  9,666
  10,518
  11,406
  12,328
  13,288
  14,285
  15,321
  16,398
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -12
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -47
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -209
  -218
  -226
  -235
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  48
  117
  208
  324
  470
  648
  860
  1,110
  1,399
  1,727
  2,095
  2,504
  2,953
  3,441
  3,969
  4,534
  5,136
  5,775
  6,448
  7,157
  7,899
  8,676
  9,487
  10,332
  11,212
  12,127
  13,078
  14,067
  15,095
  16,163
Discount rate, %
 
  12.70
  13.34
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.69
  21.72
  22.81
  23.95
  25.15
  26.40
  27.72
  29.11
  30.56
  32.09
  33.70
  35.38
  37.15
  39.01
  40.96
  43.01
  45.16
  47.41
  49.79
  52.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  42
  91
  140
  187
  229
  263
  286
  298
  298
  286
  265
  237
  204
  170
  137
  107
  80
  58
  41
  27
  18
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

China Auto Logistics Inc., formerly Fresh Ideas Media, Inc. is engaged in providing imported automobile sales and trading service, and a Web-based automobile sales and trading information platform to its customers. The Company operates through four segments: sales of automobiles, financing services, airport auto mall automotive services and other services. The Company conducts its sales operations of imported automobiles primarily through its subsidiaries, Tianjin Binhai Shisheng Trading Group Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Zhonghe Auto Sales Service Co., Ltd. (Zhonghe). Its financing services include letter of credit issuance services, purchase deposit financing, and import duty advance services. Zhonghe operates approximately two businesses, including selling used cars through Car King Tianjin, and leasing a portion of the Airport International Auto Mall. The Company's other services include revenue generated from Web-based Advertising.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Auto Logistics (CALI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3.4
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 358.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Return On Equity 17.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.9%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CALI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CALI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $467 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Auto Logistics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China Auto Logistics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CALI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 47.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.7%, whose default value for CALI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Auto Logistics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Auto Logistics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CALI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $160 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CALI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for China Auto Logistics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Auto Logistics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CALI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CALI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Auto Logistics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CALI is equal to 22.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24 million for China Auto Logistics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.037 million for China Auto Logistics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Auto Logistics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating

COMPANY NEWS

▶ China Auto Logistics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-15-17 06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ China Auto Logistics Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [May-15-17 07:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ It's Time to Look Under the Hood of China's CAR   [Mar-15  10:14PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 3 Stocks Pushing The Specialty Retail Industry Lower   [Oct-17  04:32PM  at TheStreet]
▶ 3 Wholesale Stocks Pushing The Industry Higher   [Oct-15  04:33PM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of CALI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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