Intrinsic value of Cal-Maine Foods - CALM

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$38.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$38.70

 
Intrinsic value

$108.47

 
Up/down potential

+180%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CALM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.13
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,909
  1,947
  1,992
  2,043
  2,101
  2,164
  2,234
  2,310
  2,393
  2,481
  2,577
  2,678
  2,787
  2,903
  3,026
  3,156
  3,295
  3,441
  3,596
  3,760
  3,932
  4,115
  4,307
  4,510
  4,723
  4,948
  5,185
  5,434
  5,696
  5,972
  6,262
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  567
  580
  594
  611
  629
  650
  672
  696
  721
  749
  775
  807
  840
  876
  914
  954
  996
  1,041
  1,088
  1,138
  1,191
  1,247
  1,305
  1,367
  1,432
  1,501
  1,573
  1,649
  1,729
  1,813
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  927
  950
  974
  998
  1,023
  1,048
  1,075
  1,101
  1,129
  1,157
  1,186
  1,216
  1,246
  1,277
  1,309
  1,342
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
  1,761
  1,805
  1,850
  1,896
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,438
  1,494
  1,530
  1,568
  1,609
  1,652
  1,698
  1,747
  1,797
  1,850
  1,906
  1,961
  2,023
  2,086
  2,153
  2,223
  2,296
  2,372
  2,451
  2,533
  2,619
  2,709
  2,803
  2,900
  3,002
  3,108
  3,219
  3,334
  3,454
  3,579
  3,709
Operating income, $m
  470
  454
  463
  475
  492
  512
  536
  564
  596
  631
  671
  717
  765
  816
  873
  933
  999
  1,070
  1,145
  1,226
  1,313
  1,405
  1,504
  1,609
  1,721
  1,840
  1,966
  2,100
  2,242
  2,393
  2,553
EBITDA, $m
  515
  500
  509
  523
  541
  563
  588
  618
  651
  689
  730
  776
  826
  880
  939
  1,003
  1,071
  1,145
  1,224
  1,309
  1,399
  1,496
  1,599
  1,708
  1,825
  1,948
  2,080
  2,219
  2,368
  2,524
  2,691
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  487
  454
  462
  475
  491
  511
  535
  563
  594
  629
  668
  714
  762
  813
  869
  929
  995
  1,065
  1,140
  1,220
  1,306
  1,398
  1,496
  1,601
  1,712
  1,830
  1,955
  2,089
  2,230
  2,380
  2,539
Tax expense, $m
  169
  122
  125
  128
  133
  138
  144
  152
  160
  170
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  251
  269
  287
  308
  329
  353
  378
  404
  432
  462
  494
  528
  564
  602
  643
  686
Net income, $m
  316
  331
  337
  347
  358
  373
  391
  411
  434
  459
  488
  522
  556
  594
  634
  678
  726
  777
  832
  891
  954
  1,021
  1,092
  1,168
  1,250
  1,336
  1,427
  1,525
  1,628
  1,738
  1,854

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  390
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,112
  736
  753
  773
  794
  819
  845
  874
  905
  938
  975
  1,013
  1,054
  1,098
  1,144
  1,194
  1,246
  1,302
  1,360
  1,422
  1,487
  1,556
  1,629
  1,706
  1,786
  1,871
  1,961
  2,055
  2,154
  2,259
  2,368
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  722
  736
  753
  773
  794
  819
  845
  874
  905
  938
  975
  1,013
  1,054
  1,098
  1,144
  1,194
  1,246
  1,302
  1,360
  1,422
  1,487
  1,556
  1,629
  1,706
  1,786
  1,871
  1,961
  2,055
  2,154
  2,259
  2,368
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.644
  2.645
  2.645
  2.643
  2.646
  2.642
  2.644
  2.643
  2.644
  2.645
  2.643
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
  2.645
  2.643
  2.644
  2.643
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
  2.645
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
  2.645
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
  2.644
Average production assets, $m
  383
  389
  398
  409
  420
  433
  447
  462
  479
  496
  515
  536
  557
  581
  605
  631
  659
  688
  719
  752
  786
  823
  861
  902
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,087
  1,139
  1,194
  1,252
Working capital, $m
  543
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  531
  557
Total debt, $m
  26
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  65
  74
  83
  94
  105
  116
  129
  142
  156
  170
  186
  202
  220
  238
  257
  277
  299
  321
  345
  370
  396
  423
Total liabilities, $m
  196
  185
  189
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  313
  327
  341
  357
  373
  391
  409
  428
  448
  470
  492
  516
  541
  567
  594
Total equity, $m
  915
  552
  564
  579
  595
  613
  633
  654
  678
  703
  730
  759
  790
  822
  857
  894
  933
  975
  1,019
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,277
  1,338
  1,402
  1,469
  1,539
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,111
  737
  753
  773
  794
  818
  845
  873
  905
  939
  975
  1,013
  1,055
  1,098
  1,144
  1,194
  1,246
  1,302
  1,360
  1,422
  1,487
  1,557
  1,629
  1,705
  1,786
  1,872
  1,961
  2,055
  2,155
  2,259
  2,368
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.028
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.727
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749
  0.749

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  316
  331
  337
  347
  358
  373
  391
  411
  434
  459
  488
  522
  556
  594
  634
  678
  726
  777
  832
  891
  954
  1,021
  1,092
  1,168
  1,250
  1,336
  1,427
  1,525
  1,628
  1,738
  1,854
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  55
  57
  60
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
Funds from operations, $m
  386
  377
  384
  394
  407
  424
  443
  464
  489
  517
  547
  580
  617
  657
  701
  748
  798
  853
  911
  973
  1,040
  1,111
  1,187
  1,268
  1,353
  1,445
  1,541
  1,644
  1,753
  1,869
  1,991
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  382
  389
  380
  390
  402
  418
  436
  458
  482
  509
  539
  571
  608
  647
  690
  736
  786
  840
  897
  959
  1,025
  1,095
  1,170
  1,250
  1,334
  1,425
  1,520
  1,622
  1,730
  1,844
  1,965
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -213
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -189
Free cash flow, $m
  169
  340
  328
  336
  346
  359
  375
  393
  415
  439
  465
  494
  527
  563
  602
  644
  689
  738
  791
  847
  907
  972
  1,041
  1,114
  1,193
  1,276
  1,364
  1,458
  1,558
  1,664
  1,776
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -28
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  141
  344
  333
  341
  351
  365
  381
  400
  422
  447
  474
  504
  537
  574
  613
  656
  702
  752
  805
  863
  924
  989
  1,059
  1,134
  1,213
  1,297
  1,387
  1,482
  1,583
  1,690
  1,804
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -211
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  374
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  707
  320
  326
  335
  347
  362
  379
  399
  422
  447
  475
  507
  541
  578
  619
  663
  710
  761
  816
  875
  938
  1,005
  1,076
  1,152
  1,233
  1,320
  1,411
  1,509
  1,612
  1,722
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  678
  293
  284
  276
  269
  262
  256
  249
  242
  235
  226
  216
  206
  194
  182
  168
  155
  140
  126
  111
  97
  83
  71
  59
  48
  39
  30
  23
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. produces, grades, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs. It offers specialty shell eggs, such as nutritionally enhanced, cage free, organic, and brown eggs under the Egg-Land’s Best, Land O’ Lakes, Farmhouse, and 4-Grain brand names, as well as under private labels. The company sells its products to various customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club stores, foodservice distributors, and egg product consumers primarily in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western, and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is based in Jackson, Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.1%
Total Debt to Equity 2.8%
Interest Coverage 488
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 31%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Return On Total Capital 37.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
Return On Equity 39%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
EBITDA Margin 27.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Operating Margin 24.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Net Profit Margin 16.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 38.3%

CALM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CALM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1909 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cal-Maine Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cal-Maine Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CALM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CALM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cal-Maine Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cal-Maine Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CALM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 29.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $904 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CALM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cal-Maine Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cal-Maine Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CALM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CALM are equal to 20%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cal-Maine Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CALM is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $915 million for Cal-Maine Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.641 million for Cal-Maine Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cal-Maine Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Avian Flu Is Back, Should Cal-Maine Investors Worry?   [Apr-06-17 06:08PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Mar-27-17 04:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cal-Maine posts 3Q profit   [06:44AM  Associated Press]
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▶ After-hours buzz: CTAS, CALM, SGYP & more   [Dec-22-16 05:07PM  at CNBC]
▶ Is Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-12-16 09:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 5 Food and Consumer Stocks Hedge Funds Were Dumping in Q3   [Dec-07-16 08:18AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Stock Fell 16.1% in September   [Oct-11-16 09:33PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Cal-Maine Foods Gets Cracked (CALM)   [Sep-26-16 03:48PM  at Investopedia]
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Stock chart of CALM Financial statements of CALM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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