Intrinsic value of CalAmp - CAMP

Previous Close

$23.95

  Intrinsic Value

$29.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+22%

Previous close

$23.95

 
Intrinsic value

$29.33

 
Up/down potential

+22%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.91
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  351
  398
  447
  500
  555
  613
  674
  737
  803
  872
  944
  1,018
  1,095
  1,176
  1,260
  1,346
  1,437
  1,531
  1,628
  1,730
  1,836
  1,946
  2,061
  2,181
  2,306
  2,437
  2,573
  2,716
  2,865
  3,020
  3,183
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  357
  401
  447
  495
  546
  600
  655
  713
  774
  837
  895
  963
  1,034
  1,107
  1,184
  1,263
  1,346
  1,432
  1,521
  1,614
  1,711
  1,812
  1,918
  2,028
  2,143
  2,262
  2,388
  2,519
  2,655
  2,799
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  351
  357
  401
  447
  495
  546
  600
  655
  713
  774
  837
  895
  963
  1,034
  1,107
  1,184
  1,263
  1,346
  1,432
  1,521
  1,614
  1,711
  1,812
  1,918
  2,028
  2,143
  2,262
  2,388
  2,519
  2,655
  2,799
Operating income, $m
  0
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  279
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
EBITDA, $m
  23
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  156
  167
  180
  192
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  281
  297
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  36
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  81
  85
Net income, $m
  -8
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  408
  349
  392
  438
  487
  538
  591
  646
  704
  765
  828
  893
  961
  1,031
  1,105
  1,181
  1,260
  1,343
  1,428
  1,518
  1,611
  1,707
  1,808
  1,913
  2,023
  2,138
  2,257
  2,382
  2,513
  2,649
  2,792
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  308
  349
  392
  438
  487
  538
  591
  646
  704
  765
  828
  893
  961
  1,031
  1,105
  1,181
  1,260
  1,343
  1,428
  1,518
  1,611
  1,707
  1,808
  1,913
  2,023
  2,138
  2,257
  2,382
  2,513
  2,649
  2,792
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.142
  1.140
  1.139
  1.140
  1.141
  1.141
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.139
  1.141
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
Average production assets, $m
  56
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  108
  118
  128
  140
  151
  163
  175
  188
  202
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  294
  311
  330
  349
  369
  390
  412
  435
  458
  483
  509
Working capital, $m
  129
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  152
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  225
  238
  251
  264
Total debt, $m
  147
  179
  214
  250
  289
  329
  372
  416
  462
  510
  560
  612
  666
  722
  780
  841
  904
  969
  1,038
  1,109
  1,182
  1,259
  1,339
  1,423
  1,510
  1,601
  1,697
  1,796
  1,900
  2,008
  2,122
Total liabilities, $m
  245
  277
  312
  348
  387
  427
  470
  514
  560
  608
  658
  710
  764
  820
  878
  939
  1,002
  1,067
  1,136
  1,207
  1,280
  1,357
  1,437
  1,521
  1,608
  1,699
  1,795
  1,894
  1,998
  2,106
  2,220
Total equity, $m
  163
  72
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  133
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  392
  415
  438
  463
  488
  515
  543
  572
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  408
  349
  392
  438
  487
  537
  591
  647
  704
  765
  828
  893
  961
  1,031
  1,104
  1,181
  1,260
  1,342
  1,429
  1,518
  1,610
  1,707
  1,808
  1,913
  2,023
  2,137
  2,258
  2,382
  2,513
  2,649
  2,792
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.902
  2.510
  2.660
  2.790
  2.900
  2.990
  3.070
  3.140
  3.200
  3.250
  3.300
  3.340
  3.380
  3.410
  3.450
  3.470
  3.500
  3.520
  3.540
  3.560
  3.580
  3.600
  3.610
  3.630
  3.640
  3.650
  3.670
  3.680
  3.690
  3.700
  3.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205
  0.205

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  96
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  318
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
Free cash flow, $m
  -20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  32
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -26
  32
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  166
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  294
  309
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  147
  52
  57
  61
  66
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  252
  266
  279
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  141
  48
  49
  51
  51
  52
  52
  52
  51
  49
  47
  45
  42
  40
  37
  34
  31
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
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CalAmp Corp. (CalAmp) is a provider of wireless communications solutions for a range of applications to customers globally. The Company operates through two business segments: Wireless DataCom and Satellite. The Company's Wireless DataCom segment offers solutions for mobile resource management (MRM) applications, the machine-to-machine (M2M) communications space and other markets that require connectivity anytime and anywhere. The Company's MRM and M2M solutions collect, monitor and report data and intelligence from remote and mobile assets. The Company delivers products, software services and solutions for energy, government, transportation and automotive vertical markets. The Company's Satellite segment develops, manufactures and sells direct-broadcast satellite (DBS) outdoor customer premise equipment and whole home video networking devices enabling the delivery of digital and high definition satellite television services. Its satellite products are sold primarily to EchoStar.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CalAmp (CAMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -105.8
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 47
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 90.2%
Total Debt to Equity 90.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital -2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity -4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin -2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $351 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CalAmp. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of CalAmp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CAMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CalAmp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CalAmp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CalAmp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CalAmp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAMP are equal to 16%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CalAmp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAMP is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $163 million for CalAmp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.219 million for CalAmp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CalAmp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Financial statements of CAMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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