Intrinsic value of Camtek - CAMT

Previous Close

$5.45

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$5.45

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.20
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
Revenue, $m
  79
  91
  104
  117
  132
  147
  163
  180
  197
  215
  235
  254
  275
  297
  319
  342
  366
  392
  418
  445
  473
  503
  533
  565
  598
  633
  669
  707
  746
  788
  831
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  100
  114
  129
  145
  162
  179
  198
  217
  237
  258
  280
  303
  327
  351
  377
  403
  431
  460
  490
  521
  553
  587
  622
  659
  697
  737
  778
  822
  867
  915
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  77
  100
  114
  129
  145
  162
  179
  198
  217
  237
  258
  280
  303
  327
  351
  377
  403
  431
  460
  490
  521
  553
  587
  622
  659
  697
  737
  778
  822
  867
  915
Operating income, $m
  2
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
EBITDA, $m
  4
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  5
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  106
  99
  113
  127
  143
  160
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  277
  299
  323
  347
  372
  399
  426
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  689
  728
  769
  812
  857
  904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  86
  99
  113
  127
  143
  160
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  277
  299
  323
  347
  372
  399
  426
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  689
  728
  769
  812
  857
  904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.919
  0.919
  0.920
  0.921
  0.923
  0.919
  0.921
  0.923
  0.921
  0.919
  0.922
  0.917
  0.920
  0.920
  0.919
  0.919
  0.917
  0.920
  0.919
  0.919
  0.918
  0.920
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
  0.919
Average production assets, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Working capital, $m
  54
  39
  45
  50
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  128
  137
  147
  158
  168
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
  357
Total debt, $m
  0
  5
  10
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  203
  217
  231
  247
  262
  279
  296
  314
Total liabilities, $m
  32
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  280
  295
  312
  329
  347
Total equity, $m
  73
  61
  69
  79
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  184
  199
  214
  229
  246
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  357
  379
  401
  424
  449
  474
  500
  528
  557
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  105
  99
  112
  128
  143
  159
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  277
  299
  323
  347
  372
  399
  426
  455
  484
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  688
  729
  769
  812
  857
  904
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.080
  0.150
  0.200
  0.250
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  -37
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Change in working capital, $m
  -20
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  40
  44
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  9
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.1
  79.6
  71.3
  64.0
  57.6
  52.0
  47.0
  42.5
  38.6
  35.0
  31.8
  29.0
  26.4
  24.1
  22.0
  20.1
  18.4
  16.8
  15.4
  14.1
  12.9
  11.9
  10.9
  10.0
  9.2
  8.4
  7.7
  7.1
  6.5
  6.0

Camtek Ltd. provides automated and technological solutions for production processes and products yield, enabling and supporting customers' technologies in the semiconductor fabrication and printed circuit board (PCB) industries. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets products mainly based on two core technologies: automated optical inspection (AOI) and functional ink technology (FIT). The Company's AOI systems are computerized systems that optically inspect various types of electronic product components for defects caused during the manufacturing process. Its AOI systems are used for both production processes and for manufacturers in the semiconductor fabrication industry, as well as the printed circuit board industry. The Company's AOI products incorporate image processing software and algorithms, as well as electro-optics and precision mechanics. In addition, the Company's AOI systems use technology to handle a range of inspection and verification needs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Camtek (CAMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.5
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.6%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $79 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Camtek. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Camtek. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CAMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Camtek, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Camtek.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Camtek.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Camtek. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAMT are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Camtek operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAMT is equal to 43%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $73 million for Camtek - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.287 million for Camtek is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Camtek at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Camtek posts 3Q profit   [Nov-07-17 06:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Hot Stocks Under $10   [Oct-09-17 12:32PM  Investopedia]
▶ One Thing To Consider Before Buying Camtek Ltd (CAMT)   [Oct-03-17 08:06AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Camtek Announces Closing of the Sale of its PCB Business   [Oct-02-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Camtek reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 02:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ Camtek Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 07:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:54PM  Zacks]
▶ Why Camtek Ltd.'s Stock Fell Sharply on Tuesday   [Jun-27-17 07:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Clarification Issued by Camtek   [Jun-09-17 08:10AM  PR Newswire]
▶ This Week's Hidden Gems: (CAMT)(PATK)   [Jun-08-17 04:26PM  Zacks]
▶ Why Shares of Camtek Ltd. Are Falling Today   [Jun-07-17 12:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Best Performing Stocks of May   [Jun-01-17 02:12PM  Zacks]
▶ Investor Network: Camtek Ltd to Host Earnings Call   [May-09-17 08:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ Camtek posts 1Q profit   [06:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Camtek Announces Filing of Shelf Registration Statement   [Mar-27-17 07:02AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Camtek posts 4Q profit   [Feb-08-17 07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Camtek posts 2Q profit   [Jul-21-16 07:27AM  AP]
▶ Camtek to Present at the 28th Annual Roth Conference   [Feb-25-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Camtek reports 4Q loss   [Feb-11-16 09:38AM  AP]
▶ Camtek Announces Final Ruling in Patent Litigation Case   [Feb-03-16 03:53PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CAMT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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