Intrinsic value of CrossAmerica Partners - CAPL

Previous Close

$26.40

  Intrinsic Value

$3.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

-51%

Previous close

$26.40

 
Intrinsic value

$3.30

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-51%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAPL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.99
  27.40
  25.16
  23.14
  21.33
  19.70
  18.23
  16.90
  15.71
  14.64
  13.68
  12.81
  12.03
  11.33
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.74
  8.36
  8.03
  7.72
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
Revenue, $m
  1,870
  2,382
  2,982
  3,672
  4,455
  5,333
  6,305
  7,370
  8,528
  9,777
  11,115
  12,538
  14,047
  15,638
  17,310
  19,062
  20,895
  22,807
  24,799
  26,873
  29,030
  31,272
  33,602
  36,023
  38,539
  41,155
  43,875
  46,703
  49,647
  52,711
  55,903
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,351
  2,941
  3,619
  4,389
  5,252
  6,208
  7,256
  8,394
  9,622
  10,937
  12,328
  13,811
  15,376
  17,020
  18,743
  20,545
  22,425
  24,384
  26,422
  28,543
  30,748
  33,039
  35,419
  37,893
  40,465
  43,139
  45,921
  48,815
  51,828
  54,966
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,838
  2,351
  2,941
  3,619
  4,389
  5,252
  6,208
  7,256
  8,394
  9,622
  10,937
  12,328
  13,811
  15,376
  17,020
  18,743
  20,545
  22,425
  24,384
  26,422
  28,543
  30,748
  33,039
  35,419
  37,893
  40,465
  43,139
  45,921
  48,815
  51,828
  54,966
Operating income, $m
  32
  31
  41
  53
  66
  80
  97
  115
  134
  155
  177
  210
  235
  262
  290
  319
  350
  382
  416
  450
  487
  524
  563
  604
  646
  690
  735
  783
  832
  883
  937
EBITDA, $m
  86
  102
  127
  156
  190
  227
  269
  314
  363
  417
  474
  534
  599
  666
  738
  812
  890
  972
  1,057
  1,145
  1,237
  1,333
  1,432
  1,535
  1,642
  1,754
  1,870
  1,990
  2,116
  2,246
  2,382
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  21
  30
  41
  53
  67
  82
  99
  118
  138
  160
  183
  208
  234
  262
  291
  322
  354
  387
  422
  458
  496
  535
  576
  618
  662
  708
  755
  805
  856
  910
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
Net income, $m
  11
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  932
  1,186
  1,484
  1,828
  2,218
  2,654
  3,138
  3,669
  4,245
  4,867
  5,532
  6,241
  6,992
  7,784
  8,616
  9,489
  10,401
  11,352
  12,344
  13,376
  14,450
  15,566
  16,726
  17,931
  19,183
  20,485
  21,839
  23,247
  24,712
  26,237
  27,826
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  931
  1,186
  1,484
  1,828
  2,218
  2,654
  3,138
  3,669
  4,245
  4,867
  5,532
  6,241
  6,992
  7,784
  8,616
  9,489
  10,401
  11,352
  12,344
  13,376
  14,450
  15,566
  16,726
  17,931
  19,183
  20,485
  21,839
  23,247
  24,712
  26,237
  27,826
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.009
  2.008
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
  2.009
Average production assets, $m
  735
  936
  1,172
  1,443
  1,751
  2,096
  2,478
  2,897
  3,352
  3,842
  4,368
  4,928
  5,520
  6,146
  6,803
  7,492
  8,212
  8,963
  9,746
  10,561
  11,409
  12,290
  13,205
  14,157
  15,146
  16,174
  17,243
  18,354
  19,511
  20,715
  21,970
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -224
Total debt, $m
  468
  662
  889
  1,152
  1,449
  1,782
  2,151
  2,556
  2,996
  3,470
  3,978
  4,519
  5,092
  5,696
  6,331
  6,997
  7,693
  8,419
  9,175
  9,963
  10,782
  11,634
  12,519
  13,438
  14,394
  15,387
  16,420
  17,494
  18,612
  19,776
  20,988
Total liabilities, $m
  711
  905
  1,132
  1,395
  1,692
  2,025
  2,394
  2,799
  3,239
  3,713
  4,221
  4,762
  5,335
  5,939
  6,574
  7,240
  7,936
  8,662
  9,418
  10,206
  11,025
  11,877
  12,762
  13,681
  14,637
  15,630
  16,663
  17,737
  18,855
  20,019
  21,231
Total equity, $m
  221
  281
  352
  433
  526
  629
  744
  869
  1,006
  1,153
  1,311
  1,479
  1,657
  1,845
  2,042
  2,249
  2,465
  2,690
  2,926
  3,170
  3,425
  3,689
  3,964
  4,250
  4,546
  4,855
  5,176
  5,510
  5,857
  6,218
  6,595
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  932
  1,186
  1,484
  1,828
  2,218
  2,654
  3,138
  3,668
  4,245
  4,866
  5,532
  6,241
  6,992
  7,784
  8,616
  9,489
  10,401
  11,352
  12,344
  13,376
  14,450
  15,566
  16,726
  17,931
  19,183
  20,485
  21,839
  23,247
  24,712
  26,237
  27,826
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.118
  2.350
  2.530
  2.660
  2.760
  2.830
  2.890
  2.940
  2.980
  3.010
  3.030
  3.060
  3.070
  3.090
  3.100
  3.110
  3.120
  3.130
  3.140
  3.140
  3.150
  3.150
  3.160
  3.160
  3.170
  3.170
  3.170
  3.180
  3.180
  3.180
  3.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  70
  86
  104
  124
  147
  172
  199
  229
  262
  296
  324
  363
  404
  448
  493
  540
  590
  641
  695
  751
  809
  869
  931
  996
  1,064
  1,134
  1,208
  1,284
  1,363
  1,445
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  77
  94
  112
  133
  157
  183
  211
  241
  274
  309
  344
  383
  425
  468
  513
  561
  610
  662
  715
  771
  829
  889
  952
  1,017
  1,084
  1,154
  1,228
  1,304
  1,383
  1,465
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  80
  96
  115
  137
  160
  187
  215
  246
  279
  315
  350
  389
  431
  475
  520
  568
  618
  670
  724
  780
  838
  899
  961
  1,027
  1,095
  1,165
  1,239
  1,315
  1,395
  1,478
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -48
  -62
  -77
  -95
  -115
  -138
  -163
  -191
  -221
  -253
  -287
  -324
  -363
  -404
  -448
  -493
  -540
  -590
  -641
  -695
  -751
  -809
  -869
  -931
  -996
  -1,064
  -1,134
  -1,208
  -1,284
  -1,363
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -201
  -236
  -271
  -308
  -345
  -382
  -419
  -455
  -491
  -526
  -560
  -593
  -625
  -657
  -689
  -720
  -751
  -783
  -815
  -848
  -881
  -916
  -952
  -989
  -1,028
  -1,069
  -1,112
  -1,157
  -1,204
  -1,254
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -249
  -298
  -348
  -403
  -460
  -520
  -582
  -646
  -712
  -779
  -847
  -917
  -988
  -1,061
  -1,137
  -1,213
  -1,291
  -1,373
  -1,456
  -1,543
  -1,632
  -1,725
  -1,821
  -1,920
  -2,024
  -2,133
  -2,246
  -2,365
  -2,488
  -2,617
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -170
  -201
  -233
  -266
  -300
  -333
  -367
  -400
  -432
  -464
  -497
  -528
  -557
  -587
  -616
  -645
  -674
  -703
  -732
  -763
  -794
  -826
  -859
  -894
  -930
  -968
  -1,007
  -1,049
  -1,093
  -1,139
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  80
  195
  228
  262
  297
  333
  369
  405
  440
  474
  508
  541
  573
  604
  635
  666
  696
  726
  757
  788
  819
  852
  885
  920
  956
  993
  1,033
  1,074
  1,118
  1,164
  1,212
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  53
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  114
  125
  135
  145
  148
  158
  167
  177
  186
  195
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  288
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  248
  291
  335
  380
  426
  473
  519
  565
  609
  653
  689
  731
  771
  812
  852
  891
  931
  971
  1,012
  1,053
  1,096
  1,139
  1,185
  1,233
  1,281
  1,334
  1,388
  1,445
  1,506
  1,569
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  78
  90
  102
  114
  127
  140
  152
  165
  177
  189
  192
  203
  214
  225
  236
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  339
  352
  366
  381
  396
  413
  430
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -60
  -71
  -81
  -92
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -377
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  15
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.4
  89.4
  85.0
  81.2
  77.7
  74.7
  71.9
  69.5
  67.2
  65.2
  63.4
  61.8
  60.3
  58.9
  57.6
  56.3
  55.2
  54.1
  53.1
  52.2
  51.3
  50.4
  49.6
  48.8
  48.0
  47.3
  46.6
  45.9
  45.3
  44.6

CrossAmerica Partners LP engages in the wholesale distribution of motor fuels, and ownership and leasing of real estate used in the retail distribution of motor fuels in the United States. It distributes gasoline and diesel fuel to approximately 1,100 sites located in 25 states. The company also operates convenience stores. CrossAmerica GP LLC operates as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Lehigh Gas Partners LP and changed its name to CrossAmerica Partners LP in October 2014. CrossAmerica Partners LP was founded in 1992 and is based in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 80.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2000%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 210.4%
Total Debt to Equity 211.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity 4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate -10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAPL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAPL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1870 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CrossAmerica Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CrossAmerica Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAPL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for CAPL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CrossAmerica Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CrossAmerica Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAPL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAPL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for CrossAmerica Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CrossAmerica Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAPL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAPL are equal to 39.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CrossAmerica Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAPL is equal to -0.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $221 million for CrossAmerica Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.717 million for CrossAmerica Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CrossAmerica Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CrossAmerica reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 10:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ CrossAmerica misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-08-17 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ CrossAmerica misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-01-17 05:50AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of CAPL Financial statements of CAPL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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