Intrinsic value of CrossAmerica Partners - CAPL

Previous Close

$17.71

  Intrinsic Value

$0.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$17.71

 
Intrinsic value

$0.21

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CAPL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.99
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  1,870
  2,346
  2,612
  2,890
  3,182
  3,487
  3,806
  4,138
  4,483
  4,843
  5,216
  5,604
  6,007
  6,427
  6,862
  7,315
  7,786
  8,277
  8,787
  9,319
  9,873
  10,451
  11,053
  11,682
  12,339
  13,024
  13,741
  14,490
  15,274
  16,093
  16,951
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,323
  2,584
  2,858
  3,145
  3,445
  3,758
  4,085
  4,424
  4,777
  5,144
  5,510
  5,906
  6,318
  6,746
  7,192
  7,655
  8,137
  8,639
  9,162
  9,706
  10,274
  10,867
  11,485
  12,130
  12,805
  13,509
  14,246
  15,016
  15,822
  16,665
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,838
  2,323
  2,584
  2,858
  3,145
  3,445
  3,758
  4,085
  4,424
  4,777
  5,144
  5,510
  5,906
  6,318
  6,746
  7,192
  7,655
  8,137
  8,639
  9,162
  9,706
  10,274
  10,867
  11,485
  12,130
  12,805
  13,509
  14,246
  15,016
  15,822
  16,665
Operating income, $m
  32
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  95
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
EBITDA, $m
  86
  134
  150
  166
  182
  200
  218
  237
  257
  277
  299
  321
  344
  368
  393
  419
  446
  474
  503
  534
  565
  599
  633
  669
  707
  746
  787
  830
  875
  922
  971
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  30
  30
  36
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  104
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  -7
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  11
  -7
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  932
  1,061
  1,181
  1,307
  1,439
  1,577
  1,721
  1,871
  2,027
  2,189
  2,358
  2,534
  2,716
  2,905
  3,102
  3,307
  3,520
  3,742
  3,973
  4,213
  4,463
  4,725
  4,997
  5,281
  5,578
  5,888
  6,212
  6,551
  6,905
  7,276
  7,663
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  931
  1,061
  1,181
  1,307
  1,439
  1,577
  1,721
  1,871
  2,027
  2,189
  2,358
  2,534
  2,716
  2,905
  3,102
  3,307
  3,520
  3,742
  3,973
  4,213
  4,463
  4,725
  4,997
  5,281
  5,578
  5,888
  6,212
  6,551
  6,905
  7,276
  7,663
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.009
  2.211
  2.212
  2.211
  2.211
  2.211
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
  2.212
Average production assets, $m
  735
  948
  1,055
  1,168
  1,286
  1,409
  1,538
  1,672
  1,811
  1,956
  2,107
  2,264
  2,427
  2,596
  2,772
  2,955
  3,146
  3,344
  3,550
  3,765
  3,989
  4,222
  4,465
  4,720
  4,985
  5,262
  5,551
  5,854
  6,171
  6,502
  6,848
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -52
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -373
Total debt, $m
  468
  540
  647
  761
  880
  1,004
  1,133
  1,268
  1,409
  1,555
  1,707
  1,865
  2,029
  2,200
  2,377
  2,561
  2,753
  2,952
  3,160
  3,376
  3,602
  3,837
  4,082
  4,338
  4,605
  4,884
  5,176
  5,481
  5,799
  6,133
  6,482
Total liabilities, $m
  711
  955
  1,063
  1,176
  1,295
  1,419
  1,549
  1,684
  1,824
  1,970
  2,122
  2,280
  2,444
  2,615
  2,792
  2,976
  3,168
  3,368
  3,575
  3,792
  4,017
  4,252
  4,497
  4,753
  5,020
  5,299
  5,591
  5,896
  6,214
  6,548
  6,897
Total equity, $m
  221
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  172
  187
  203
  219
  236
  253
  272
  291
  310
  331
  352
  374
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  621
  655
  690
  728
  766
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  932
  1,061
  1,181
  1,307
  1,439
  1,577
  1,721
  1,871
  2,027
  2,189
  2,358
  2,533
  2,716
  2,906
  3,102
  3,307
  3,520
  3,742
  3,972
  4,213
  4,463
  4,724
  4,997
  5,281
  5,578
  5,888
  6,212
  6,551
  6,904
  7,276
  7,663
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.118
  5.090
  5.480
  5.820
  6.110
  6.370
  6.590
  6.780
  6.950
  7.100
  7.240
  7.360
  7.470
  7.570
  7.660
  7.740
  7.820
  7.890
  7.950
  8.010
  8.070
  8.120
  8.170
  8.210
  8.260
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  -7
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  111
  122
  133
  145
  157
  170
  184
  198
  212
  227
  226
  243
  260
  277
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
  399
  422
  447
  472
  498
  526
  555
  585
  617
  650
  685
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  105
  119
  129
  140
  150
  162
  174
  186
  198
  212
  225
  240
  254
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  376
  397
  418
  441
  464
  488
  514
  540
  568
  597
  627
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  110
  125
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  279
  296
  313
  331
  349
  368
  389
  410
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  557
  585
  615
  646
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -95
  -106
  -117
  -129
  -141
  -154
  -167
  -181
  -196
  -211
  -226
  -243
  -260
  -277
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -399
  -422
  -447
  -472
  -498
  -526
  -555
  -585
  -617
  -650
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -331
  -347
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -186
  -202
  -219
  -235
  -252
  -270
  -288
  -307
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -389
  -412
  -436
  -460
  -486
  -513
  -540
  -570
  -600
  -632
  -665
  -701
  -737
  -775
  -816
  -858
  -902
  -948
  -997
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -76
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -350
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  80
  7
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  113
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  51
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  120
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  177
  185
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  331
  348
  366
  384
  404
  423
  445
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -113
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -68
  31
  31
  30
  30
  29
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  2
  0
  -1
Discount rate, %
 
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.23
  23.35
  24.51
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.49
  36.22
  38.03
  39.93
  41.93
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -60
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.9
  38.5
  33.7
  29.5
  25.7
  22.5
  19.6
  17.1
  14.9
  13.8
  12.7
  11.7
  10.7
  9.7
  8.8
  8.0
  7.2
  6.5
  5.9
  5.3
  4.7
  4.2
  3.7
  3.3
  3.0
  2.6
  2.3
  2.1
  1.8

CrossAmerica Partners LP is a limited partnership engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel, and the ownership and leasing of real estate used in the retail distribution of motor fuel. The Company operates in two segments: wholesale and retail. The wholesale segment is engaged in the wholesale distribution of motor fuel to lessee dealers, independent dealers, commission agents, Dunne Manning Stores LLC (DMS), CST Brands, Inc. and subsidiaries (CST) and company operated retail sites. The Retail segment owns or leases and operates retail sites. As of December 31, 2016, it distributed motor fuels to approximately 1,200 sites located in 29 states (Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2000%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 210.4%
Total Debt to Equity 211.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity 4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate -10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

CAPL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CAPL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2095 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CrossAmerica Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CrossAmerica Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CAPL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13%, whose default value for CAPL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CrossAmerica Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CrossAmerica Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CAPL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CAPL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for CrossAmerica Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CrossAmerica Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CAPL stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CAPL are equal to 40.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CrossAmerica Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CAPL is equal to -2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for CrossAmerica Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34 million for CrossAmerica Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CrossAmerica Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CrossAmerica Partners LP: Maintains Quarterly Distribution   [Jul-13-18 04:26PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CrossAmerica meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-26-18 06:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Will 2018 Be Sunoco LP's Best Year Yet?   [Feb-06-18 09:48AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is CrossAmerica Partners LP (NYSE:CAPL) Undervalued?   [Jan-29-18 01:32PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ CrossAmerica Partners LP: Maintains Quarterly Distribution   [Jan-24-18 04:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CrossAmerica beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 06:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ CrossAmerica reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 10:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ CrossAmerica misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-08-17 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ CrossAmerica misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-01-17 05:50AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of CAPL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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