Intrinsic value of Cass Information Systems - CASS

Previous Close

$60.55

  Intrinsic Value

$76.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+26%

  Value-price divergence*

-73%

Previous close

$60.55

 
Intrinsic value

$76.29

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-73%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CASS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.28
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  126
  139
  152
  166
  180
  195
  210
  226
  243
  260
  278
  297
  317
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  452
  478
  505
  533
  563
  594
  626
  660
  695
  732
  771
  812
  854
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
Operating income, $m
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
EBITDA, $m
  41
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  14
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  206
  218
  232
  245
  260
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
Tax expense, $m
  8
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  24
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,505
  1,650
  1,807
  1,970
  2,141
  2,318
  2,502
  2,694
  2,893
  3,100
  3,315
  3,538
  3,771
  4,013
  4,264
  4,526
  4,799
  5,084
  5,380
  5,689
  6,012
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,455
  7,857
  8,278
  8,719
  9,180
  9,663
  10,169
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,493
  1,650
  1,807
  1,970
  2,141
  2,318
  2,502
  2,694
  2,893
  3,100
  3,315
  3,538
  3,771
  4,013
  4,264
  4,526
  4,799
  5,084
  5,380
  5,689
  6,012
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,455
  7,857
  8,278
  8,719
  9,180
  9,663
  10,169
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
Working capital, $m
  0
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  130
  139
  149
  158
  169
  179
  190
  202
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  366
  386
  406
  427
Total debt, $m
  407
  531
  666
  806
  953
  1,106
  1,264
  1,429
  1,601
  1,779
  1,964
  2,157
  2,357
  2,565
  2,781
  3,007
  3,242
  3,487
  3,742
  4,009
  4,287
  4,577
  4,880
  5,197
  5,528
  5,875
  6,237
  6,617
  7,014
  7,430
  7,866
Total liabilities, $m
  1,297
  1,421
  1,556
  1,696
  1,843
  1,996
  2,154
  2,319
  2,491
  2,669
  2,854
  3,047
  3,247
  3,455
  3,671
  3,897
  4,132
  4,377
  4,632
  4,899
  5,177
  5,467
  5,770
  6,087
  6,418
  6,765
  7,127
  7,507
  7,904
  8,320
  8,756
Total equity, $m
  208
  229
  251
  274
  298
  322
  348
  374
  402
  431
  461
  492
  524
  558
  593
  629
  667
  707
  748
  791
  836
  883
  932
  983
  1,036
  1,092
  1,151
  1,212
  1,276
  1,343
  1,413
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,505
  1,650
  1,807
  1,970
  2,141
  2,318
  2,502
  2,693
  2,893
  3,100
  3,315
  3,539
  3,771
  4,013
  4,264
  4,526
  4,799
  5,084
  5,380
  5,690
  6,013
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,454
  7,857
  8,278
  8,719
  9,180
  9,663
  10,169
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.957
  2.310
  2.650
  2.940
  3.200
  3.430
  3.640
  3.820
  3.980
  4.130
  4.260
  4.380
  4.500
  4.600
  4.690
  4.780
  4.860
  4.930
  5.000
  5.070
  5.130
  5.190
  5.240
  5.290
  5.340
  5.380
  5.420
  5.460
  5.500
  5.530
  5.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139
  0.139

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  36
  19
  19
  18
  18
  17
  16
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  2
  0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  35
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  136
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  379
  397
  416
  436
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  92
  99
  105
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  30
  142
  142
  150
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  216
  226
  237
  249
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  364
  382
  401
  423
  444
  466
  489
  515
  541
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  150
  149
  156
  162
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  211
  220
  228
  238
  247
  258
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -99
  -105
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  128
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  228
  236
  244
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  343
  357
  373
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  116
  104
  96
  88
  79
  71
  62
  54
  46
  39
  32
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.2
  98.2
  97.1
  96.0
  94.7
  93.4
  92.1
  90.7
  89.3
  87.8
  86.4
  84.9
  83.5
  82.0
  80.6
  79.1
  77.6
  76.1
  74.6
  73.1
  71.6
  70.1
  68.6
  67.0
  65.5
  64.1
  62.6
  61.1
  59.7
  58.2

Cass Information Systems, Inc. provides payment and information processing services to manufacturing, distribution, and retail enterprises in the United States. It operates through two segments, Information Services and Banking Services. The company’s services include freight invoice rating, payment processing, auditing, and the generation of accounting and transportation information. It also processes and pays energy invoices, including electricity, gas, waste, and other facility related expenses; and provides telecommunications expense management solutions comprising bill processing, audit, and payment services for telephone, data line, cellular, and communication equipment expenses. In addition, the company, through its banking subsidiary, Cass Commercial Bank, provides a range of commercial banking services, such as checking, savings, and time deposit accounts; commercial and commercial real estate loans; and other cash management services to privately owned businesses, and churches and church-related ministries. It operates through its banking facility near downtown St. Louis, Missouri; operating branch in the Bridgeton, Missouri; and additional leased facilities in Fenton, Missouri, Santa Ana, California, and Colorado Springs, Colorado. The company was formerly known as Cass Commercial Corporation and changed its name to Cass Information Systems, Inc. in January 2001. Cass Information Systems, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cass Information Systems (CASS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 195.7%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.1%
EBITDA Margin 34.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Operating Margin 25.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Net Profit Margin 19%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Payout Ratio 41.7%

CASS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CASS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $126 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cass Information Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cass Information Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CASS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for CASS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cass Information Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cass Information Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CASS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CASS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cass Information Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cass Information Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CASS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CASS are equal to 17.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cass Information Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CASS is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $208 million for Cass Information Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.93 million for Cass Information Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cass Information Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Cass posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 01:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cass posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 09:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cass posts 4Q profit   [Feb-02-17 08:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ U.S. Shipping Demand Turns Upward on Consumer Spending   [Nov-25-16 02:31PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Today's Top Supply Chain and Logistics News From WSJ   [Aug-16-16 06:33AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Freight Shipments, Spending Declined in July   [Aug-15-16 03:49PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Transport Stocks Are Making Chart-Watchers Nervous About the Market   [Jul-07-16 03:51PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Trucking Demand Soared in February   [Mar-22-16 03:38PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shippers Spent Less on Moving Freight in January -Cass   [Feb-11-16 04:26PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Freight Market Index Fell in December   [Jan-12-16 06:32PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Freight Volumes Steady in November ---Cass   [Dec-15  02:59PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Profit down at Cass Information Systems   [Oct-23  02:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of CASS Financial statements of CASS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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