Intrinsic value of Casey's General Stores - CASY

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$105.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CASY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.30
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,122
  7,264
  7,432
  7,623
  7,837
  8,075
  8,335
  8,619
  8,926
  9,257
  9,613
  9,993
  10,398
  10,830
  11,289
  11,776
  12,292
  12,838
  13,416
  14,026
  14,671
  15,351
  16,068
  16,824
  17,621
  18,459
  19,343
  20,272
  21,250
  22,280
  23,362
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,959
  7,119
  7,301
  7,506
  7,734
  7,983
  8,254
  8,548
  8,865
  9,204
  9,555
  9,943
  10,356
  10,794
  11,260
  11,754
  12,276
  12,828
  13,412
  14,028
  14,678
  15,364
  16,087
  16,849
  17,651
  18,495
  19,384
  20,319
  21,304
  22,339
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,733
  6,959
  7,119
  7,301
  7,506
  7,734
  7,983
  8,254
  8,548
  8,865
  9,204
  9,555
  9,943
  10,356
  10,794
  11,260
  11,754
  12,276
  12,828
  13,412
  14,028
  14,678
  15,364
  16,087
  16,849
  17,651
  18,495
  19,384
  20,319
  21,304
  22,339
Operating income, $m
  389
  305
  313
  321
  330
  341
  352
  365
  378
  393
  408
  438
  456
  474
  495
  516
  539
  562
  588
  615
  643
  673
  704
  737
  772
  809
  847
  888
  931
  976
  1,024
EBITDA, $m
  560
  483
  494
  507
  521
  537
  555
  574
  594
  616
  640
  665
  692
  721
  751
  784
  818
  854
  893
  933
  976
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119
  1,172
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,482
  1,554
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
Earnings before tax, $m
  349
  267
  273
  279
  286
  295
  303
  313
  323
  335
  347
  372
  386
  401
  416
  433
  450
  468
  488
  508
  530
  553
  577
  602
  629
  657
  687
  718
  751
  786
  822
Tax expense, $m
  123
  72
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
Net income, $m
  226
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  221
  229
  236
  244
  253
  272
  282
  292
  304
  316
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  421
  440
  459
  480
  502
  524
  548
  574
  600

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,726
  2,703
  2,765
  2,836
  2,916
  3,004
  3,101
  3,207
  3,321
  3,444
  3,576
  3,718
  3,868
  4,029
  4,200
  4,381
  4,573
  4,776
  4,991
  5,218
  5,458
  5,711
  5,978
  6,259
  6,555
  6,867
  7,196
  7,542
  7,906
  8,289
  8,691
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,650
  2,703
  2,765
  2,836
  2,916
  3,004
  3,101
  3,207
  3,321
  3,444
  3,576
  3,718
  3,868
  4,029
  4,200
  4,381
  4,573
  4,776
  4,991
  5,218
  5,458
  5,711
  5,978
  6,259
  6,555
  6,867
  7,196
  7,542
  7,906
  8,289
  8,691
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.688
  2.687
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
Average production assets, $m
  2,137
  2,179
  2,229
  2,287
  2,351
  2,422
  2,501
  2,586
  2,678
  2,777
  2,884
  2,998
  3,119
  3,249
  3,387
  3,533
  3,688
  3,852
  4,025
  4,208
  4,401
  4,605
  4,820
  5,047
  5,286
  5,538
  5,803
  6,082
  6,375
  6,684
  7,009
Working capital, $m
  -62
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -133
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -152
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -379
  -397
Total debt, $m
  838
  854
  893
  936
  985
  1,039
  1,099
  1,164
  1,234
  1,310
  1,391
  1,478
  1,570
  1,669
  1,774
  1,885
  2,003
  2,128
  2,260
  2,399
  2,546
  2,702
  2,865
  3,038
  3,220
  3,412
  3,613
  3,826
  4,049
  4,284
  4,531
Total liabilities, $m
  1,642
  1,659
  1,698
  1,741
  1,790
  1,844
  1,904
  1,969
  2,039
  2,115
  2,196
  2,283
  2,375
  2,474
  2,579
  2,690
  2,808
  2,933
  3,065
  3,204
  3,351
  3,507
  3,670
  3,843
  4,025
  4,217
  4,418
  4,631
  4,854
  5,089
  5,336
Total equity, $m
  1,083
  1,043
  1,067
  1,095
  1,125
  1,160
  1,197
  1,238
  1,282
  1,329
  1,380
  1,435
  1,493
  1,555
  1,621
  1,691
  1,765
  1,844
  1,927
  2,014
  2,107
  2,204
  2,307
  2,416
  2,530
  2,651
  2,778
  2,911
  3,052
  3,199
  3,355
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,725
  2,702
  2,765
  2,836
  2,915
  3,004
  3,101
  3,207
  3,321
  3,444
  3,576
  3,718
  3,868
  4,029
  4,200
  4,381
  4,573
  4,777
  4,992
  5,218
  5,458
  5,711
  5,977
  6,259
  6,555
  6,868
  7,196
  7,542
  7,906
  8,288
  8,691
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.774
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  226
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  221
  229
  236
  244
  253
  272
  282
  292
  304
  316
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  421
  440
  459
  480
  502
  524
  548
  574
  600
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  171
  178
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  209
  216
  223
  231
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  531
Funds from operations, $m
  472
  373
  381
  390
  400
  411
  424
  437
  452
  468
  484
  499
  518
  539
  560
  583
  608
  634
  661
  690
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  899
  941
  985
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  465
  492
  384
  393
  404
  415
  428
  442
  457
  473
  490
  505
  525
  546
  568
  592
  617
  643
  671
  700
  731
  764
  799
  835
  873
  914
  956
  1,001
  1,048
  1,097
  1,150
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -162
  -165
  -169
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -420
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -506
New CAPEX, $m
  -393
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -325
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -395
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -488
  -512
  -537
  -564
  -592
  -621
  -652
  -685
  -719
  -754
  -792
  -831
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  287
  168
  167
  166
  166
  167
  168
  169
  171
  174
  173
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  282
  294
  306
  318
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  31
  38
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  31
  38
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  318
  207
  211
  215
  220
  226
  232
  239
  247
  255
  260
  269
  279
  289
  300
  312
  324
  338
  352
  366
  382
  398
  416
  434
  453
  473
  495
  517
  541
  566
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -208
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  358
  183
  183
  184
  186
  189
  192
  195
  199
  204
  205
  211
  217
  223
  230
  238
  246
  255
  264
  274
  284
  295
  307
  320
  333
  347
  361
  377
  393
  410
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  341
  165
  156
  148
  139
  131
  123
  114
  106
  98
  88
  80
  72
  65
  57
  50
  44
  37
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Casey’s General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey’s General Store name in 14 Midwestern states, primarily in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The company’s stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverage and tobacco products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. Its stores also offer fuel for sale on a self-service basis. In addition, the company operates two stores primarily selling tobacco products. As of October 28, 2016, it operated approximately 1,940 stores. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Casey's General Stores (CASY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 57.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 76%
Total Debt to Equity 77.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Equity 23.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Payout Ratio 15%

CASY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CASY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7122 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Casey's General Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Casey's General Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CASY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for CASY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Casey's General Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Casey's General Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CASY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CASY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Casey's General Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Casey's General Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CASY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CASY are equal to 30%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Casey's General Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CASY is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1083 million for Casey's General Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.094 million for Casey's General Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Casey's General Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.


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Stock chart of CASY Financial statements of CASY Annual reports of CASY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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