Intrinsic value of Casey's General Stores - CASY

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$112.07

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$112.07

 
Intrinsic value

$57.48

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CASY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.30
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  7,122
  8,048
  9,030
  10,066
  11,157
  12,300
  13,496
  14,745
  16,046
  17,401
  18,810
  20,276
  21,799
  23,381
  25,025
  26,735
  28,512
  30,360
  32,283
  34,285
  36,370
  38,542
  40,806
  43,168
  45,633
  48,206
  50,893
  53,700
  56,635
  59,704
  62,914
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,708
  8,647
  9,638
  10,681
  11,774
  12,918
  14,112
  15,356
  16,652
  17,999
  19,387
  20,843
  22,357
  23,929
  25,563
  27,263
  29,030
  30,869
  32,783
  34,776
  36,853
  39,019
  41,277
  43,633
  46,094
  48,663
  51,348
  54,154
  57,088
  60,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,733
  7,708
  8,647
  9,638
  10,681
  11,774
  12,918
  14,112
  15,356
  16,652
  17,999
  19,387
  20,843
  22,357
  23,929
  25,563
  27,263
  29,030
  30,869
  32,783
  34,776
  36,853
  39,019
  41,277
  43,633
  46,094
  48,663
  51,348
  54,154
  57,088
  60,158
Operating income, $m
  389
  340
  383
  428
  476
  526
  578
  633
  690
  749
  811
  888
  955
  1,024
  1,096
  1,171
  1,249
  1,330
  1,414
  1,502
  1,593
  1,689
  1,788
  1,891
  1,999
  2,112
  2,230
  2,353
  2,481
  2,616
  2,756
EBITDA, $m
  560
  535
  601
  670
  742
  818
  898
  981
  1,068
  1,158
  1,252
  1,349
  1,450
  1,556
  1,665
  1,779
  1,897
  2,020
  2,148
  2,281
  2,420
  2,565
  2,715
  2,872
  3,036
  3,208
  3,386
  3,573
  3,768
  3,973
  4,186
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  39
  49
  59
  70
  82
  94
  107
  120
  134
  149
  164
  180
  196
  213
  231
  249
  268
  288
  309
  330
  353
  376
  400
  426
  452
  480
  509
  539
  570
  603
Earnings before tax, $m
  349
  301
  334
  369
  406
  444
  484
  526
  570
  615
  662
  724
  775
  828
  883
  940
  1,000
  1,062
  1,126
  1,193
  1,263
  1,336
  1,412
  1,491
  1,574
  1,660
  1,750
  1,844
  1,943
  2,046
  2,153
Tax expense, $m
  123
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  196
  209
  224
  238
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  381
  403
  425
  448
  472
  498
  524
  552
  581
Net income, $m
  226
  220
  244
  269
  296
  324
  353
  384
  416
  449
  483
  529
  566
  605
  645
  687
  730
  775
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,088
  1,149
  1,212
  1,277
  1,346
  1,418
  1,493
  1,572

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,726
  2,994
  3,359
  3,745
  4,151
  4,576
  5,021
  5,485
  5,970
  6,474
  6,998
  7,543
  8,110
  8,698
  9,310
  9,946
  10,607
  11,295
  12,010
  12,755
  13,530
  14,339
  15,181
  16,060
  16,976
  17,934
  18,933
  19,978
  21,070
  22,211
  23,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,650
  2,994
  3,359
  3,745
  4,151
  4,576
  5,021
  5,485
  5,970
  6,474
  6,998
  7,543
  8,110
  8,698
  9,310
  9,946
  10,607
  11,295
  12,010
  12,755
  13,530
  14,339
  15,181
  16,060
  16,976
  17,934
  18,933
  19,978
  21,070
  22,211
  23,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
  2.688
Average production assets, $m
  2,137
  2,414
  2,709
  3,020
  3,347
  3,690
  4,049
  4,423
  4,814
  5,220
  5,643
  6,083
  6,540
  7,014
  7,508
  8,020
  8,554
  9,108
  9,685
  10,285
  10,911
  11,563
  12,242
  12,950
  13,690
  14,462
  15,268
  16,110
  16,991
  17,911
  18,874
Working capital, $m
  -62
  -137
  -154
  -171
  -190
  -209
  -229
  -251
  -273
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -371
  -397
  -425
  -454
  -485
  -516
  -549
  -583
  -618
  -655
  -694
  -734
  -776
  -819
  -865
  -913
  -963
  -1,015
  -1,070
Total debt, $m
  838
  1,033
  1,258
  1,494
  1,743
  2,005
  2,278
  2,563
  2,860
  3,170
  3,492
  3,826
  4,174
  4,536
  4,911
  5,302
  5,708
  6,130
  6,569
  7,026
  7,503
  7,999
  8,516
  9,056
  9,619
  10,206
  10,820
  11,461
  12,132
  12,833
  13,566
Total liabilities, $m
  1,642
  1,838
  2,063
  2,299
  2,548
  2,810
  3,083
  3,368
  3,665
  3,975
  4,297
  4,631
  4,979
  5,341
  5,716
  6,107
  6,513
  6,935
  7,374
  7,831
  8,308
  8,804
  9,321
  9,861
  10,424
  11,011
  11,625
  12,266
  12,937
  13,638
  14,371
Total equity, $m
  1,083
  1,156
  1,297
  1,446
  1,602
  1,766
  1,938
  2,117
  2,304
  2,499
  2,701
  2,912
  3,130
  3,358
  3,594
  3,839
  4,094
  4,360
  4,636
  4,923
  5,223
  5,535
  5,860
  6,199
  6,553
  6,922
  7,308
  7,711
  8,133
  8,574
  9,035
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,725
  2,994
  3,360
  3,745
  4,150
  4,576
  5,021
  5,485
  5,969
  6,474
  6,998
  7,543
  8,109
  8,699
  9,310
  9,946
  10,607
  11,295
  12,010
  12,754
  13,531
  14,339
  15,181
  16,060
  16,977
  17,933
  18,933
  19,977
  21,070
  22,212
  23,406
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.774
  0.890
  0.970
  1.030
  1.090
  1.130
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  226
  220
  244
  269
  296
  324
  353
  384
  416
  449
  483
  529
  566
  605
  645
  687
  730
  775
  822
  871
  922
  975
  1,031
  1,088
  1,149
  1,212
  1,277
  1,346
  1,418
  1,493
  1,572
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  171
  196
  218
  242
  266
  292
  320
  348
  378
  408
  440
  461
  495
  531
  569
  608
  648
  690
  734
  779
  827
  876
  927
  981
  1,037
  1,096
  1,157
  1,220
  1,287
  1,357
  1,430
Funds from operations, $m
  472
  416
  462
  511
  563
  617
  673
  732
  793
  857
  924
  989
  1,061
  1,136
  1,214
  1,294
  1,378
  1,465
  1,556
  1,650
  1,749
  1,851
  1,958
  2,070
  2,186
  2,307
  2,434
  2,567
  2,705
  2,850
  3,002
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
Cash from operations, $m
  465
  548
  479
  529
  581
  636
  693
  753
  816
  880
  948
  1,014
  1,087
  1,163
  1,241
  1,323
  1,408
  1,497
  1,589
  1,684
  1,784
  1,888
  1,997
  2,110
  2,228
  2,351
  2,480
  2,614
  2,755
  2,902
  3,056
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -162
  -183
  -205
  -229
  -254
  -280
  -307
  -335
  -365
  -395
  -428
  -461
  -495
  -531
  -569
  -608
  -648
  -690
  -734
  -779
  -827
  -876
  -927
  -981
  -1,037
  -1,096
  -1,157
  -1,220
  -1,287
  -1,357
New CAPEX, $m
  -393
  -278
  -295
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -493
  -513
  -533
  -554
  -577
  -601
  -625
  -652
  -679
  -709
  -739
  -772
  -806
  -842
  -880
  -921
  -963
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -395
  -440
  -478
  -516
  -556
  -597
  -639
  -682
  -725
  -771
  -818
  -868
  -918
  -970
  -1,024
  -1,082
  -1,141
  -1,202
  -1,267
  -1,335
  -1,404
  -1,479
  -1,555
  -1,636
  -1,720
  -1,809
  -1,902
  -1,999
  -2,100
  -2,208
  -2,320
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  108
  1
  12
  25
  39
  55
  72
  90
  109
  130
  147
  170
  193
  217
  242
  267
  294
  322
  350
  380
  410
  441
  474
  507
  542
  578
  615
  654
  694
  736
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  210
  224
  237
  249
  261
  273
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  348
  361
  376
  390
  406
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  563
  588
  614
  641
  670
  701
  733
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  210
  224
  237
  249
  261
  273
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  348
  361
  376
  390
  406
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  517
  539
  563
  588
  614
  641
  670
  701
  733
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  318
  226
  249
  274
  301
  328
  357
  387
  419
  451
  482
  517
  554
  592
  632
  673
  716
  761
  807
  856
  906
  959
  1,013
  1,070
  1,130
  1,192
  1,257
  1,325
  1,395
  1,470
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -208
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -369
  -386
  -403
  -421
  -441
  -461
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  246
  85
  100
  118
  136
  156
  178
  200
  224
  249
  272
  299
  327
  356
  387
  418
  451
  485
  520
  556
  594
  633
  674
  716
  760
  806
  854
  903
  955
  1,009
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  234
  76
  86
  94
  102
  109
  114
  118
  119
  120
  117
  114
  109
  103
  96
  89
  80
  71
  63
  54
  46
  38
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Casey’s General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey’s General Store name in 14 Midwestern states, primarily in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The company’s stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; beverage and tobacco products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. Its stores also offer fuel for sale on a self-service basis. In addition, the company operates two stores primarily selling tobacco products. As of October 28, 2016, it operated approximately 1,940 stores. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Casey's General Stores (CASY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 61
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 76%
Total Debt to Equity 77.4%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Equity 23.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Payout Ratio 15%

CASY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CASY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7122 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Casey's General Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Casey's General Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CASY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for CASY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Casey's General Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Casey's General Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CASY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CASY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Casey's General Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Casey's General Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CASY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CASY are equal to 30%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Casey's General Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CASY is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1083 million for Casey's General Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.644 million for Casey's General Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Casey's General Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.


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Stock chart of CASY Financial statements of CASY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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