Intrinsic value of Cato Cl A - CATO

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$17.91

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CATO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.34
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  957
  1,031
  1,055
  1,082
  1,112
  1,146
  1,183
  1,224
  1,267
  1,314
  1,365
  1,419
  1,476
  1,537
  1,603
  1,672
  1,745
  1,822
  1,904
  1,991
  2,083
  2,179
  2,281
  2,388
  2,501
  2,620
  2,746
  2,878
  3,017
  3,163
  3,316
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  688
  704
  722
  742
  765
  789
  816
  845
  877
  910
  946
  985
  1,025
  1,069
  1,115
  1,164
  1,216
  1,270
  1,328
  1,389
  1,453
  1,521
  1,593
  1,668
  1,748
  1,831
  1,919
  2,012
  2,110
  2,212
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  253
  260
  266
  273
  279
  286
  294
  301
  308
  316
  324
  332
  340
  349
  358
  367
  376
  385
  395
  405
  415
  425
  436
  447
  458
  469
  481
  493
  505
  518
Total operating expenses, $m
  914
  941
  964
  988
  1,015
  1,044
  1,075
  1,110
  1,146
  1,185
  1,226
  1,270
  1,317
  1,365
  1,418
  1,473
  1,531
  1,592
  1,655
  1,723
  1,794
  1,868
  1,946
  2,029
  2,115
  2,206
  2,300
  2,400
  2,505
  2,615
  2,730
Operating income, $m
  42
  90
  92
  94
  98
  102
  108
  114
  121
  129
  138
  148
  159
  171
  185
  199
  214
  231
  249
  268
  289
  311
  334
  359
  386
  415
  445
  477
  511
  548
  586
EBITDA, $m
  65
  104
  106
  109
  113
  118
  123
  130
  138
  147
  157
  167
  179
  192
  206
  221
  238
  255
  274
  295
  317
  340
  365
  391
  420
  450
  482
  516
  552
  590
  631
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  90
  92
  94
  97
  101
  106
  112
  119
  127
  136
  145
  156
  168
  180
  194
  209
  225
  243
  261
  281
  302
  325
  349
  375
  403
  432
  463
  497
  532
  569
Tax expense, $m
  2
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
Net income, $m
  47
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  114
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  177
  191
  205
  221
  237
  255
  274
  294
  316
  338
  363
  388
  416

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  248
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  606
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  434
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  358
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  434
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.673
  2.817
  2.813
  2.818
  2.815
  2.816
  2.817
  2.820
  2.816
  2.814
  2.814
  2.815
  2.817
  2.815
  2.817
  2.815
  2.815
  2.816
  2.817
  2.816
  2.815
  2.815
  2.816
  2.816
  2.816
  2.814
  2.816
  2.816
  2.817
  2.817
  2.815
Average production assets, $m
  132
  69
  71
  72
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
Working capital, $m
  272
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Total debt, $m
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  31
  39
  48
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  134
  150
  166
  184
  202
  222
  243
  265
  288
  312
  338
  365
  393
  423
  454
  488
  522
Total liabilities, $m
  222
  234
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  683
  717
  751
Total equity, $m
  384
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  606
  367
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  434
  450
  467
  484
  503
  524
  546
  569
  594
  619
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  889
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,124
  1,177
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.070
  0.120
  0.160
  0.210
  0.260
  0.310
  0.360
  0.410
  0.460
  0.510
  0.560
  0.600
  0.650
  0.700
  0.740
  0.780
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.940
  0.980
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  114
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  177
  191
  205
  221
  237
  255
  274
  294
  316
  338
  363
  388
  416
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  80
  81
  83
  86
  89
  94
  98
  104
  110
  117
  125
  134
  143
  153
  164
  176
  189
  203
  217
  233
  250
  268
  287
  307
  329
  352
  377
  403
  431
  460
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  72
  11
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  125
  133
  142
  153
  164
  175
  188
  202
  216
  232
  249
  267
  286
  306
  328
  351
  376
  402
  429
  458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
Free cash flow, $m
  57
  -3
  65
  67
  69
  72
  75
  80
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  119
  128
  137
  148
  159
  172
  185
  199
  215
  231
  248
  267
  287
  308
  330
  354
  379
  406
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -42
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  1
  71
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  205
  220
  236
  254
  273
  292
  313
  336
  360
  385
  412
  441
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  29
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  283
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  282
  68
  70
  72
  75
  79
  83
  89
  94
  101
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  155
  167
  180
  194
  208
  224
  241
  259
  278
  298
  320
  343
  367
  393
  421
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  270
  62
  61
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
  54
  53
  51
  49
  47
  45
  42
  39
  36
  33
  30
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Cato Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of fashion apparel and accessories in the Southeastern United States. It operates through two segments, Retail and Credit. The company’s stores and e-commerce Website offer a range of apparel and accessories, including dressy, career, and casual sportswear; and dresses, coats, shoes, lingerie, costume jewelry, and handbags for women. It also offers men’s wear, as well as lines for kids and newborns. The company operates its stores primarily under the Cato, Cato Fashions, Cato Plus, It’s Fashion, It’s Fashion Metro, and Versona names. As of January 30, 2016, it operated 1,372 stores in 32 states. The company also provides credit cards to its customers. The Cato Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cato Cl A (CATO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 11.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Equity 11.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 4.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Payout Ratio 74.5%

CATO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CATO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1011 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cato Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cato Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CATO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CATO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cato Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cato Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CATO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $247 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CATO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cato Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cato Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CATO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CATO are equal to 6.7%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cato Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CATO is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $413 million for Cato Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.072 million for Cato Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cato Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ BB&T CEO expresses regulation frustrations ahead of House vote on Choice Act   [Jun-07-17 04:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cato Reports May Same-Store Sales Down 16%   [Jun-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Cato Corp. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cato 2017 Annual Meeting Highlights   [02:50PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato posts 1Q profit   [May-18-17 07:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cato Reports Decline In 1Q EPS   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ The Cato Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:CATO) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cato Reports April Same-Store Sales Down 2%   [May-04-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato Reports March Same-Store Sales Down 21%   [Apr-06-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The Cato Corp. : March 30, 2017   [Mar-29-17 08:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cato Reports 4Q And Full Year Earnings   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Charlotte fashion retailer Cato sees sales slide 25% in February   [Mar-02-17 02:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Charlotte fashion retailer Cato sees sales slide 25% in February   [02:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cato Reports January Same-Store Sales Down 15%   [Feb-02-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Crazy About Cato Corp (CATO) Anymore   [Dec-18-16 10:35AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Cato Reports 3Q Flat To Last Year   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New name for UNC Charlottes College of Ed after $5M gift   [Nov-11-16 12:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Cato Reports August Same-Store Sales Down 8%   [Sep-01-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato Reports 2Q EPS Up 2%   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato Reports July Same-Store Sales Down 10%   [Aug-04-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Humana, Cato, and First Solar Slumped Today   [Jul-07-16 06:06PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Cato Reports May Same-Store Sales Down 2%   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato to raise dividend by 10%   [May-20-16 07:06AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Cato 2016 Annual Meeting Highlights   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cato Reports 1Q EPS 16%   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CATO Financial statements of CATO Annual reports of CATO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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