Intrinsic value of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru - CBD

Previous Close

$21.85

  Intrinsic Value

$42.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+94%

Previous close

$21.85

 
Intrinsic value

$42.43

 
Up/down potential

+94%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  13,107
  14,169
  15,272
  16,420
  17,612
  18,850
  20,138
  21,477
  22,869
  24,317
  25,825
  27,396
  29,032
  30,738
  32,517
  34,373
  36,312
  38,336
  40,451
  42,661
  44,973
  47,391
  49,922
  52,570
  55,343
  58,247
  61,289
  64,476
  67,816
  71,317
  74,987
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  13,557
  14,610
  15,705
  16,842
  18,024
  19,253
  20,531
  21,859
  23,242
  24,681
  26,145
  27,706
  29,334
  31,032
  32,804
  34,653
  36,585
  38,603
  40,713
  42,919
  45,227
  47,642
  50,169
  52,815
  55,587
  58,490
  61,532
  64,719
  68,060
  71,562
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,836
  13,557
  14,610
  15,705
  16,842
  18,024
  19,253
  20,531
  21,859
  23,242
  24,681
  26,145
  27,706
  29,334
  31,032
  32,804
  34,653
  36,585
  38,603
  40,713
  42,919
  45,227
  47,642
  50,169
  52,815
  55,587
  58,490
  61,532
  64,719
  68,060
  71,562
Operating income, $m
  271
  612
  662
  715
  769
  826
  885
  946
  1,009
  1,076
  1,144
  1,251
  1,326
  1,404
  1,485
  1,570
  1,658
  1,751
  1,847
  1,948
  2,054
  2,164
  2,280
  2,401
  2,528
  2,660
  2,799
  2,945
  3,097
  3,257
  3,425
EBITDA, $m
  615
  973
  1,049
  1,128
  1,210
  1,295
  1,383
  1,475
  1,571
  1,670
  1,774
  1,882
  1,994
  2,111
  2,234
  2,361
  2,494
  2,633
  2,779
  2,931
  3,089
  3,255
  3,429
  3,611
  3,802
  4,001
  4,210
  4,429
  4,659
  4,899
  5,151
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  32
  61
  91
  123
  155
  189
  224
  261
  299
  339
  380
  423
  468
  514
  563
  614
  667
  722
  780
  840
  904
  970
  1,039
  1,111
  1,187
  1,267
  1,350
  1,437
  1,528
  1,624
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  580
  601
  623
  647
  671
  695
  721
  748
  776
  806
  871
  903
  936
  971
  1,007
  1,045
  1,084
  1,125
  1,168
  1,213
  1,261
  1,310
  1,362
  1,416
  1,473
  1,532
  1,595
  1,660
  1,729
  1,800
Tax expense, $m
  7
  157
  162
  168
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  235
  244
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  304
  315
  328
  340
  354
  368
  382
  398
  414
  431
  448
  467
  486
Net income, $m
  -152
  423
  439
  455
  472
  489
  508
  527
  546
  567
  588
  636
  659
  683
  709
  735
  763
  791
  821
  853
  886
  920
  956
  994
  1,034
  1,075
  1,119
  1,164
  1,212
  1,262
  1,314

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,616
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,296
  13,703
  14,770
  15,880
  17,032
  18,231
  19,476
  20,770
  22,117
  23,518
  24,976
  26,495
  28,077
  29,727
  31,448
  33,243
  35,118
  37,075
  39,121
  41,259
  43,494
  45,833
  48,280
  50,841
  53,523
  56,332
  59,274
  62,356
  65,586
  68,972
  72,521
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  12,680
  13,703
  14,770
  15,880
  17,032
  18,231
  19,476
  20,770
  22,117
  23,518
  24,976
  26,495
  28,077
  29,727
  31,448
  33,243
  35,118
  37,075
  39,121
  41,259
  43,494
  45,833
  48,280
  50,841
  53,523
  56,332
  59,274
  62,356
  65,586
  68,972
  72,521
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
  1.034
Average production assets, $m
  3,894
  4,208
  4,536
  4,877
  5,231
  5,599
  5,981
  6,379
  6,792
  7,222
  7,670
  8,137
  8,623
  9,129
  9,658
  10,209
  10,785
  11,386
  12,014
  12,670
  13,357
  14,075
  14,827
  15,613
  16,437
  17,299
  18,203
  19,149
  20,141
  21,181
  22,271
Working capital, $m
  1,286
  652
  703
  755
  810
  867
  926
  988
  1,052
  1,119
  1,188
  1,260
  1,335
  1,414
  1,496
  1,581
  1,670
  1,763
  1,861
  1,962
  2,069
  2,180
  2,296
  2,418
  2,546
  2,679
  2,819
  2,966
  3,120
  3,281
  3,449
Total debt, $m
  1,856
  1,749
  2,611
  3,508
  4,439
  5,407
  6,413
  7,459
  8,547
  9,679
  10,858
  12,085
  13,364
  14,697
  16,087
  17,537
  19,052
  20,634
  22,286
  24,014
  25,820
  27,710
  29,687
  31,757
  33,924
  36,193
  38,570
  41,061
  43,671
  46,406
  49,274
Total liabilities, $m
  11,179
  11,072
  11,934
  12,831
  13,762
  14,730
  15,736
  16,782
  17,870
  19,002
  20,181
  21,408
  22,687
  24,020
  25,410
  26,860
  28,375
  29,957
  31,609
  33,337
  35,143
  37,033
  39,010
  41,080
  43,247
  45,516
  47,893
  50,384
  52,994
  55,729
  58,597
Total equity, $m
  3,117
  2,631
  2,836
  3,049
  3,270
  3,500
  3,739
  3,988
  4,246
  4,515
  4,795
  5,087
  5,391
  5,708
  6,038
  6,383
  6,743
  7,118
  7,511
  7,922
  8,351
  8,800
  9,270
  9,762
  10,276
  10,816
  11,381
  11,972
  12,593
  13,243
  13,924
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,296
  13,703
  14,770
  15,880
  17,032
  18,230
  19,475
  20,770
  22,116
  23,517
  24,976
  26,495
  28,078
  29,728
  31,448
  33,243
  35,118
  37,075
  39,120
  41,259
  43,494
  45,833
  48,280
  50,842
  53,523
  56,332
  59,274
  62,356
  65,587
  68,972
  72,521
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.595
  0.660
  0.920
  1.150
  1.360
  1.540
  1.720
  1.870
  2.010
  2.140
  2.260
  2.380
  2.480
  2.570
  2.660
  2.750
  2.830
  2.900
  2.970
  3.030
  3.090
  3.150
  3.200
  3.250
  3.300
  3.350
  3.390
  3.430
  3.470
  3.500
  3.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.118
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192
  0.192

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -152
  423
  439
  455
  472
  489
  508
  527
  546
  567
  588
  636
  659
  683
  709
  735
  763
  791
  821
  853
  886
  920
  956
  994
  1,034
  1,075
  1,119
  1,164
  1,212
  1,262
  1,314
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  344
  361
  387
  413
  440
  469
  499
  529
  562
  595
  630
  631
  668
  708
  749
  791
  836
  883
  931
  982
  1,035
  1,091
  1,149
  1,210
  1,274
  1,341
  1,411
  1,484
  1,561
  1,642
  1,726
Funds from operations, $m
  -1,643
  785
  826
  868
  912
  958
  1,006
  1,056
  1,108
  1,162
  1,218
  1,267
  1,328
  1,391
  1,457
  1,526
  1,599
  1,674
  1,753
  1,835
  1,921
  2,011
  2,106
  2,204
  2,308
  2,416
  2,530
  2,649
  2,773
  2,904
  3,041
Change in working capital, $m
  -1,231
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
Cash from operations, $m
  -412
  736
  775
  815
  858
  901
  947
  994
  1,044
  1,095
  1,148
  1,194
  1,252
  1,313
  1,375
  1,441
  1,509
  1,581
  1,655
  1,733
  1,815
  1,900
  1,989
  2,083
  2,180
  2,283
  2,390
  2,502
  2,620
  2,743
  2,872
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -302
  -326
  -352
  -378
  -405
  -434
  -464
  -494
  -527
  -560
  -595
  -631
  -668
  -708
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -883
  -931
  -982
  -1,035
  -1,091
  -1,149
  -1,210
  -1,274
  -1,341
  -1,411
  -1,484
  -1,561
  -1,642
New CAPEX, $m
  -488
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -382
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -448
  -466
  -486
  -507
  -528
  -551
  -576
  -601
  -628
  -657
  -687
  -718
  -752
  -787
  -824
  -862
  -903
  -947
  -992
  -1,040
  -1,090
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -639
  -617
  -654
  -693
  -732
  -773
  -816
  -862
  -908
  -957
  -1,008
  -1,061
  -1,117
  -1,175
  -1,236
  -1,300
  -1,367
  -1,437
  -1,511
  -1,588
  -1,669
  -1,753
  -1,843
  -1,936
  -2,034
  -2,136
  -2,244
  -2,358
  -2,476
  -2,601
  -2,732
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,051
  119
  121
  123
  126
  128
  131
  133
  136
  138
  141
  133
  136
  138
  139
  141
  142
  144
  145
  145
  146
  147
  147
  147
  146
  146
  145
  144
  143
  142
  140
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  491
  828
  862
  896
  931
  968
  1,006
  1,046
  1,088
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,333
  1,390
  1,451
  1,514
  1,582
  1,653
  1,728
  1,806
  1,890
  1,977
  2,070
  2,167
  2,269
  2,377
  2,491
  2,610
  2,736
  2,868
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  467
  828
  862
  896
  931
  968
  1,006
  1,046
  1,088
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,333
  1,390
  1,451
  1,514
  1,582
  1,653
  1,728
  1,806
  1,890
  1,977
  2,070
  2,167
  2,269
  2,377
  2,491
  2,610
  2,736
  2,868
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -591
  947
  983
  1,019
  1,057
  1,096
  1,137
  1,179
  1,224
  1,270
  1,319
  1,361
  1,414
  1,470
  1,530
  1,592
  1,657
  1,725
  1,797
  1,873
  1,953
  2,036
  2,124
  2,216
  2,313
  2,415
  2,522
  2,635
  2,753
  2,877
  3,008
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  157
  -195
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -393
  -411
  -429
  -449
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -539
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -681
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  681
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,433
  778
  806
  836
  866
  898
  931
  965
  1,001
  1,039
  1,069
  1,110
  1,154
  1,199
  1,247
  1,297
  1,350
  1,405
  1,463
  1,523
  1,587
  1,654
  1,725
  1,798
  1,876
  1,957
  2,043
  2,133
  2,227
  2,326
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,374
  713
  702
  688
  671
  652
  629
  603
  575
  545
  508
  474
  439
  403
  366
  330
  294
  259
  225
  194
  164
  137
  113
  92
  73
  57
  44
  33
  24
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao, directly or through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the retail of food, clothing, home appliances, electronics and other items through its chain of hypermarkets, supermarkets, specialized stores and department stores principally under the trade names Pao de Acucar, Minuto Pao de Acucar, Extra Hiper, Extra Super, Minimercado Extra, Assai an the neighborhood shopping mall brand Conviva. The Company's segments include Retail, and Cash and carry segment. The Company's Retail segment includes the banners Pao de Acucar, Minuto Pao de Acucar, Extra Hiper, Extra Supermercado, Minimercado Extra, Posto Extra, Drogaria Extra and GPA Malls & Properties. Its Cash & Carry segment includes the brand Assai. The Company is engaged in operations of retail stores located in approximately 20 states and the Federal District of Brazil.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru (CBD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -38.2
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.7
LT Debt to Equity 29.5%
Total Debt to Equity 59.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity -4.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate -46.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Payout Ratio -0.7%

CBD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13107 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBD are equal to 29.7%.

Life of production assets of 12.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBD is equal to 4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3117 million for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 269.41 million for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Gru at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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Financial statements of CBD
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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