Intrinsic value of Cambrex - CBM

Previous Close

$51.40

  Intrinsic Value

$87.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+71%

  Value-price divergence*

+522%

Previous close

$51.40

 
Intrinsic value

$87.99

 
Up/down potential

+71%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+522%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.39
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  491
  543
  597
  653
  712
  773
  837
  903
  972
  1,044
  1,118
  1,195
  1,276
  1,359
  1,446
  1,537
  1,631
  1,729
  1,832
  1,938
  2,050
  2,166
  2,287
  2,414
  2,546
  2,685
  2,830
  2,981
  3,140
  3,306
  3,480
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  186
  204
  223
  243
  264
  285
  307
  330
  355
  379
  401
  428
  457
  486
  516
  548
  581
  615
  651
  688
  727
  768
  811
  855
  902
  950
  1,001
  1,055
  1,110
  1,169
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  324
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  386
  395
  405
  415
Total operating expenses, $m
  362
  389
  412
  436
  462
  488
  515
  542
  571
  602
  632
  661
  694
  730
  766
  803
  842
  882
  924
  968
  1,012
  1,060
  1,109
  1,160
  1,213
  1,269
  1,326
  1,387
  1,450
  1,515
  1,584
Operating income, $m
  128
  153
  184
  216
  250
  285
  322
  360
  400
  442
  485
  534
  581
  630
  681
  734
  789
  847
  908
  971
  1,037
  1,106
  1,178
  1,254
  1,333
  1,416
  1,503
  1,594
  1,690
  1,790
  1,896
EBITDA, $m
  153
  181
  214
  249
  285
  323
  362
  404
  446
  491
  537
  586
  636
  689
  743
  801
  860
  922
  987
  1,055
  1,126
  1,200
  1,277
  1,358
  1,443
  1,532
  1,626
  1,723
  1,826
  1,934
  2,046
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  153
  183
  215
  248
  282
  318
  355
  394
  435
  477
  525
  571
  618
  668
  720
  774
  830
  889
  951
  1,015
  1,083
  1,153
  1,227
  1,305
  1,386
  1,471
  1,560
  1,653
  1,751
  1,854
Tax expense, $m
  41
  41
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  240
  257
  274
  292
  311
  331
  352
  374
  397
  421
  446
  473
  501
Net income, $m
  82
  112
  134
  157
  181
  206
  232
  259
  288
  317
  348
  383
  417
  451
  488
  525
  565
  606
  649
  694
  741
  791
  842
  896
  952
  1,012
  1,074
  1,139
  1,207
  1,278
  1,354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  612
  594
  653
  715
  780
  847
  917
  989
  1,065
  1,143
  1,225
  1,309
  1,397
  1,489
  1,584
  1,683
  1,787
  1,894
  2,006
  2,123
  2,245
  2,372
  2,505
  2,644
  2,789
  2,941
  3,099
  3,265
  3,439
  3,621
  3,811
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  538
  594
  653
  715
  780
  847
  917
  989
  1,065
  1,143
  1,225
  1,309
  1,397
  1,489
  1,584
  1,683
  1,787
  1,894
  2,006
  2,123
  2,245
  2,372
  2,505
  2,644
  2,789
  2,941
  3,099
  3,265
  3,439
  3,621
  3,811
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.913
  0.914
  0.914
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
Average production assets, $m
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  335
  362
  391
  421
  452
  484
  518
  552
  589
  626
  665
  706
  749
  793
  839
  888
  938
  990
  1,045
  1,103
  1,163
  1,225
  1,291
  1,360
  1,431
  1,507
Working capital, $m
  228
  170
  187
  205
  223
  243
  263
  284
  305
  328
  351
  375
  401
  427
  454
  483
  512
  543
  575
  609
  644
  680
  718
  758
  800
  843
  889
  936
  986
  1,038
  1,093
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  45
  68
  93
  119
  146
  174
  203
  233
  264
  297
  331
  366
  403
  441
  481
  522
  565
  610
  657
  706
  757
  811
  867
  925
  986
  1,050
  1,117
  1,187
  1,260
Total liabilities, $m
  206
  229
  252
  275
  300
  326
  353
  381
  410
  440
  471
  504
  538
  573
  610
  648
  688
  729
  772
  817
  864
  913
  964
  1,018
  1,074
  1,132
  1,193
  1,257
  1,324
  1,394
  1,467
Total equity, $m
  405
  365
  402
  440
  479
  521
  564
  608
  655
  703
  753
  805
  859
  916
  974
  1,035
  1,099
  1,165
  1,234
  1,306
  1,381
  1,459
  1,541
  1,626
  1,715
  1,809
  1,906
  2,008
  2,115
  2,227
  2,344
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  611
  594
  654
  715
  779
  847
  917
  989
  1,065
  1,143
  1,224
  1,309
  1,397
  1,489
  1,584
  1,683
  1,787
  1,894
  2,006
  2,123
  2,245
  2,372
  2,505
  2,644
  2,789
  2,941
  3,099
  3,265
  3,439
  3,621
  3,811
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.110
  0.160
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  82
  112
  134
  157
  181
  206
  232
  259
  288
  317
  348
  383
  417
  451
  488
  525
  565
  606
  649
  694
  741
  791
  842
  896
  952
  1,012
  1,074
  1,139
  1,207
  1,278
  1,354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
Funds from operations, $m
  133
  139
  164
  189
  216
  243
  272
  302
  334
  367
  401
  435
  472
  510
  550
  592
  636
  681
  729
  778
  830
  884
  941
  1,000
  1,063
  1,128
  1,196
  1,268
  1,343
  1,422
  1,504
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  123
  147
  171
  197
  224
  252
  282
  312
  344
  377
  411
  447
  484
  523
  564
  606
  650
  696
  745
  795
  848
  903
  961
  1,021
  1,084
  1,151
  1,220
  1,293
  1,369
  1,450
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -87
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  80
  100
  121
  143
  167
  191
  217
  243
  271
  300
  329
  360
  393
  426
  462
  499
  537
  577
  619
  663
  709
  757
  807
  859
  914
  972
  1,032
  1,095
  1,162
  1,231
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  101
  123
  145
  168
  193
  218
  245
  272
  301
  331
  361
  394
  428
  463
  500
  538
  579
  620
  664
  710
  758
  808
  860
  915
  973
  1,033
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,305
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  141
  86
  107
  129
  151
  175
  200
  226
  253
  281
  309
  340
  371
  405
  439
  475
  512
  551
  592
  635
  679
  726
  775
  826
  879
  935
  994
  1,055
  1,120
  1,187
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  135
  79
  93
  106
  117
  127
  135
  141
  145
  147
  147
  145
  141
  136
  129
  121
  111
  102
  91
  81
  70
  60
  51
  42
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cambrex Corporation, a life sciences company, provides various products and services for the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics worldwide. The company’s products comprise active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical intermediates that are used in the production of prescription and over-the-counter drug products, as well as other fine chemicals. It serves generic drug companies; and companies that discover and commercialize small molecule human therapeutics. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent agents. Cambrex Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cambrex (CBM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Total Capital 22%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Return On Equity 22.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 31.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.5%
Operating Margin 26.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Effective Tax Rate 32%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CBM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $491 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cambrex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cambrex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cambrex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cambrex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $198 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cambrex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cambrex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBM are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cambrex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBM is equal to 31.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $405 million for Cambrex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.738 million for Cambrex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cambrex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Top Stocks You Can Buy on Sale   [Aug-19-17 08:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Cambrex posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : August 3, 2017   [Aug-03-17 07:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Grant of share options   [Jul-07-17 04:38AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 02:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: AGM Report   [Jun-30-17 06:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Notice of AGM   [Jun-07-17 10:58AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Reduction in Share Capital   [May-17-17 09:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cambrex Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:CBM) : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 06:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cambrex posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: General Meeting   [Apr-26-17 10:36AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Issue of Shares   [Apr-19-17 06:21AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Posting of Circular to Shareholders   [Apr-07-17 09:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : February 14, 2017   [Feb-14-17 03:06PM  Capital Cube]
Stock chart of CBM Financial statements of CBM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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