Intrinsic value of Cambrex - CBM

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$60.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.39
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  491
  560
  634
  713
  795
  883
  974
  1,070
  1,170
  1,275
  1,383
  1,496
  1,614
  1,736
  1,863
  1,995
  2,132
  2,275
  2,423
  2,577
  2,738
  2,905
  3,079
  3,260
  3,450
  3,647
  3,854
  4,069
  4,294
  4,529
  4,775
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  192
  217
  243
  271
  300
  331
  363
  397
  432
  469
  503
  542
  583
  626
  670
  716
  764
  814
  866
  919
  976
  1,034
  1,095
  1,159
  1,225
  1,294
  1,367
  1,442
  1,521
  1,604
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  203
  208
  213
  219
  224
  230
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  324
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  386
  395
  405
  415
Total operating expenses, $m
  362
  395
  425
  456
  490
  524
  561
  598
  638
  679
  722
  763
  808
  856
  906
  957
  1,010
  1,065
  1,123
  1,183
  1,243
  1,309
  1,375
  1,444
  1,517
  1,592
  1,670
  1,753
  1,837
  1,926
  2,019
Operating income, $m
  128
  165
  209
  256
  306
  358
  413
  471
  532
  595
  661
  734
  806
  880
  958
  1,038
  1,122
  1,209
  1,300
  1,395
  1,494
  1,597
  1,704
  1,816
  1,933
  2,055
  2,183
  2,317
  2,456
  2,603
  2,756
EBITDA, $m
  153
  194
  241
  291
  345
  401
  460
  522
  587
  655
  726
  799
  876
  956
  1,039
  1,125
  1,215
  1,309
  1,406
  1,508
  1,613
  1,724
  1,839
  1,959
  2,084
  2,215
  2,352
  2,495
  2,644
  2,801
  2,965
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  165
  208
  254
  302
  354
  408
  464
  523
  585
  650
  721
  791
  863
  939
  1,018
  1,100
  1,185
  1,274
  1,366
  1,463
  1,563
  1,668
  1,778
  1,892
  2,012
  2,136
  2,267
  2,404
  2,547
  2,696
Tax expense, $m
  41
  45
  56
  69
  82
  96
  110
  125
  141
  158
  175
  195
  213
  233
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  422
  450
  480
  511
  543
  577
  612
  649
  688
  728
Net income, $m
  82
  121
  152
  185
  221
  258
  298
  339
  382
  427
  474
  526
  577
  630
  686
  743
  803
  865
  930
  998
  1,068
  1,141
  1,218
  1,298
  1,381
  1,468
  1,560
  1,655
  1,755
  1,859
  1,968

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  612
  614
  695
  780
  871
  967
  1,067
  1,172
  1,282
  1,396
  1,515
  1,639
  1,768
  1,901
  2,040
  2,185
  2,335
  2,491
  2,654
  2,823
  2,998
  3,182
  3,372
  3,571
  3,779
  3,995
  4,221
  4,457
  4,703
  4,961
  5,230
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  538
  614
  695
  780
  871
  967
  1,067
  1,172
  1,282
  1,396
  1,515
  1,639
  1,768
  1,901
  2,040
  2,185
  2,335
  2,491
  2,654
  2,823
  2,998
  3,182
  3,372
  3,571
  3,779
  3,995
  4,221
  4,457
  4,703
  4,961
  5,230
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.913
  0.912
  0.912
  0.914
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
Average production assets, $m
  213
  243
  275
  309
  344
  382
  422
  463
  507
  552
  599
  648
  699
  752
  807
  864
  923
  985
  1,049
  1,116
  1,185
  1,258
  1,333
  1,412
  1,494
  1,579
  1,669
  1,762
  1,859
  1,961
  2,067
Working capital, $m
  228
  176
  199
  224
  250
  277
  306
  336
  367
  400
  434
  470
  507
  545
  585
  626
  669
  714
  761
  809
  860
  912
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,145
  1,210
  1,278
  1,348
  1,422
  1,499
Total debt, $m
  0
  29
  60
  93
  128
  165
  204
  244
  286
  330
  376
  424
  474
  525
  579
  634
  692
  752
  815
  880
  947
  1,018
  1,091
  1,168
  1,248
  1,331
  1,418
  1,509
  1,604
  1,703
  1,806
Total liabilities, $m
  206
  236
  267
  300
  335
  372
  411
  451
  493
  537
  583
  631
  681
  732
  786
  841
  899
  959
  1,022
  1,087
  1,154
  1,225
  1,298
  1,375
  1,455
  1,538
  1,625
  1,716
  1,811
  1,910
  2,013
Total equity, $m
  405
  377
  427
  480
  536
  595
  656
  721
  788
  859
  932
  1,008
  1,087
  1,169
  1,255
  1,344
  1,436
  1,532
  1,632
  1,736
  1,844
  1,957
  2,074
  2,196
  2,324
  2,457
  2,596
  2,741
  2,892
  3,051
  3,216
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  611
  613
  694
  780
  871
  967
  1,067
  1,172
  1,281
  1,396
  1,515
  1,639
  1,768
  1,901
  2,041
  2,185
  2,335
  2,491
  2,654
  2,823
  2,998
  3,182
  3,372
  3,571
  3,779
  3,995
  4,221
  4,457
  4,703
  4,961
  5,229
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.080
  0.140
  0.190
  0.240
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  82
  121
  152
  185
  221
  258
  298
  339
  382
  427
  474
  526
  577
  630
  686
  743
  803
  865
  930
  998
  1,068
  1,141
  1,218
  1,298
  1,381
  1,468
  1,560
  1,655
  1,755
  1,859
  1,968
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  65
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
Funds from operations, $m
  133
  149
  184
  221
  260
  301
  344
  390
  437
  487
  539
  592
  648
  706
  767
  830
  896
  965
  1,036
  1,110
  1,188
  1,268
  1,353
  1,440
  1,532
  1,628
  1,728
  1,833
  1,942
  2,057
  2,177
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  147
  160
  196
  234
  273
  315
  360
  406
  454
  505
  556
  611
  668
  727
  789
  853
  920
  989
  1,062
  1,137
  1,216
  1,298
  1,383
  1,473
  1,566
  1,663
  1,765
  1,872
  1,983
  2,100
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -304
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  95
  104
  134
  167
  201
  237
  275
  316
  358
  402
  447
  495
  544
  596
  650
  706
  765
  826
  889
  955
  1,024
  1,095
  1,170
  1,248
  1,330
  1,415
  1,503
  1,596
  1,694
  1,795
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  30
  125
  135
  167
  201
  238
  276
  316
  358
  402
  448
  494
  544
  596
  650
  706
  764
  825
  888
  954
  1,023
  1,094
  1,169
  1,247
  1,328
  1,413
  1,502
  1,594
  1,691
  1,793
  1,899
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  152
  85
  114
  146
  179
  214
  251
  290
  332
  374
  418
  465
  514
  564
  617
  672
  729
  788
  850
  915
  982
  1,052
  1,124
  1,200
  1,280
  1,363
  1,449
  1,540
  1,634
  1,733
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  146
  78
  100
  120
  139
  155
  170
  182
  190
  196
  199
  198
  195
  189
  181
  171
  159
  145
  131
  116
  102
  87
  74
  61
  50
  40
  31
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cambrex Corporation, a life sciences company, provides various products and services for the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics worldwide. The company’s products comprise active pharmaceutical ingredients and pharmaceutical intermediates that are used in the production of prescription and over-the-counter drug products, as well as other fine chemicals. It serves generic drug companies; and companies that discover and commercialize small molecule human therapeutics. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent agents. Cambrex Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cambrex (CBM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Total Capital 22%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Return On Equity 22.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 31.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.5%
Operating Margin 26.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Effective Tax Rate 32%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

CBM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $491 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cambrex. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cambrex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cambrex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cambrex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $198 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cambrex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cambrex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBM are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cambrex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBM is equal to 31.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $405 million for Cambrex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.738 million for Cambrex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cambrex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Notice of AGM   [Jun-07-17 10:58AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Reduction in Share Capital   [May-17-17 09:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cambrex Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:CBM) : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 06:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Cambrex posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: General Meeting   [Apr-26-17 10:36AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cleantech Building Materials: Issue of Shares   [Apr-19-17 06:21AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Posting of Circular to Shareholders   [Apr-07-17 09:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Cambrex Corp. : February 14, 2017   [Feb-14-17 03:06PM  Capital Cube]
Stock chart of CBM Financial statements of CBM Annual reports of CBM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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