Intrinsic value of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - CBRL

Previous Close

$157.58

  Intrinsic Value

$115.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$157.58

 
Intrinsic value

$115.43

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.48
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,926
  2,985
  3,053
  3,132
  3,220
  3,317
  3,424
  3,541
  3,667
  3,803
  3,949
  4,105
  4,272
  4,449
  4,638
  4,838
  5,050
  5,275
  5,512
  5,763
  6,027
  6,307
  6,601
  6,912
  7,239
  7,584
  7,947
  8,329
  8,731
  9,153
  9,598
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,698
  2,760
  2,831
  2,911
  2,999
  3,096
  3,201
  3,315
  3,438
  3,570
  3,711
  3,862
  4,022
  4,193
  4,374
  4,565
  4,768
  4,983
  5,209
  5,449
  5,701
  5,968
  6,248
  6,544
  6,856
  7,184
  7,529
  7,892
  8,275
  8,677
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,613
  2,698
  2,760
  2,831
  2,911
  2,999
  3,096
  3,201
  3,315
  3,438
  3,570
  3,711
  3,862
  4,022
  4,193
  4,374
  4,565
  4,768
  4,983
  5,209
  5,449
  5,701
  5,968
  6,248
  6,544
  6,856
  7,184
  7,529
  7,892
  8,275
  8,677
Operating income, $m
  313
  287
  293
  301
  309
  318
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  579
  605
  634
  664
  695
  728
  763
  800
  838
  879
  921
EBITDA, $m
  399
  374
  383
  392
  403
  416
  429
  444
  459
  477
  495
  514
  535
  557
  581
  606
  633
  661
  691
  722
  755
  790
  827
  866
  907
  950
  996
  1,044
  1,094
  1,147
  1,203
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
Earnings before tax, $m
  299
  273
  278
  285
  293
  301
  310
  320
  331
  342
  355
  368
  382
  397
  413
  430
  448
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  607
  634
  664
  694
  727
  761
  797
  835
Tax expense, $m
  97
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
Net income, $m
  202
  199
  203
  208
  214
  220
  226
  234
  242
  250
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  356
  372
  388
  405
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  609

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,522
  1,388
  1,420
  1,457
  1,498
  1,543
  1,593
  1,647
  1,706
  1,769
  1,837
  1,909
  1,987
  2,070
  2,157
  2,250
  2,349
  2,453
  2,564
  2,680
  2,803
  2,933
  3,070
  3,215
  3,367
  3,527
  3,696
  3,874
  4,061
  4,257
  4,464
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,361
  1,388
  1,420
  1,457
  1,498
  1,543
  1,593
  1,647
  1,706
  1,769
  1,837
  1,909
  1,987
  2,070
  2,157
  2,250
  2,349
  2,453
  2,564
  2,680
  2,803
  2,933
  3,070
  3,215
  3,367
  3,527
  3,696
  3,874
  4,061
  4,257
  4,464
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.150
  2.151
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.149
  2.150
  2.149
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.149
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
Average production assets, $m
  1,089
  1,110
  1,136
  1,165
  1,198
  1,234
  1,274
  1,317
  1,364
  1,415
  1,469
  1,527
  1,589
  1,655
  1,725
  1,800
  1,879
  1,962
  2,050
  2,144
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,571
  2,693
  2,821
  2,956
  3,098
  3,248
  3,405
  3,570
Working capital, $m
  -17
  -182
  -186
  -191
  -196
  -202
  -209
  -216
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -261
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -336
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -422
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -533
  -558
  -585
Total debt, $m
  400
  420
  443
  469
  498
  531
  567
  606
  648
  693
  742
  794
  850
  909
  972
  1,039
  1,109
  1,184
  1,264
  1,347
  1,436
  1,529
  1,628
  1,731
  1,841
  1,956
  2,077
  2,204
  2,339
  2,480
  2,628
Total liabilities, $m
  977
  997
  1,020
  1,046
  1,075
  1,108
  1,144
  1,183
  1,225
  1,270
  1,319
  1,371
  1,427
  1,486
  1,549
  1,616
  1,686
  1,761
  1,841
  1,924
  2,013
  2,106
  2,205
  2,308
  2,418
  2,533
  2,654
  2,781
  2,916
  3,057
  3,205
Total equity, $m
  545
  391
  400
  411
  422
  435
  449
  464
  481
  499
  518
  538
  560
  584
  608
  635
  662
  692
  723
  756
  791
  827
  866
  907
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
  1,259
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,522
  1,388
  1,420
  1,457
  1,497
  1,543
  1,593
  1,647
  1,706
  1,769
  1,837
  1,909
  1,987
  2,070
  2,157
  2,251
  2,348
  2,453
  2,564
  2,680
  2,804
  2,933
  3,071
  3,215
  3,368
  3,528
  3,696
  3,873
  4,061
  4,258
  4,464
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.734
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.350
  1.390
  1.430
  1.470
  1.520
  1.560
  1.600
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  1.990
  2.020
  2.040
  2.070
  2.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282
  0.282

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  202
  199
  203
  208
  214
  220
  226
  234
  242
  250
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  356
  372
  388
  405
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  609
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  86
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Funds from operations, $m
  337
  286
  293
  300
  308
  317
  327
  337
  349
  361
  375
  389
  404
  420
  438
  456
  475
  496
  517
  540
  565
  590
  617
  645
  675
  707
  740
  775
  811
  850
  890
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from operations, $m
  321
  290
  297
  305
  313
  323
  333
  345
  357
  370
  384
  399
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  509
  532
  556
  581
  607
  635
  664
  695
  728
  762
  798
  836
  876
  918
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -86
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -21
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -110
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -413
  -433
Free cash flow, $m
  211
  183
  184
  186
  189
  192
  196
  201
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  442
  463
  484
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  207
  203
  207
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  299
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  551
  577
  604
  633
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  356
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  232
  239
  248
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  311
  324
  337
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  524
  548
  574
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  341
  181
  176
  170
  164
  158
  152
  145
  137
  130
  122
  113
  105
  96
  88
  79
  70
  62
  54
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept (Cracker Barrel). The Company's segments include Restaurant and Retail. As of September 19, 2016, the Company operated 640 Cracker Barrel stores in 43 states. The format of its stores consists of a rustic old country-store design offering a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a range of decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts and toys, apparel, cookware and foods. Its restaurants offer home-style country cooking featuring of its own recipes. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner. Its breakfast items include juices, eggs, pancakes, grits, and a range of biscuit specialties. Its lunch and dinner items include country ham, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, fresh side items and specialty items, such as pinto beans and turnip greens.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.8
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 73.4%
Total Debt to Equity 73.4%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Return On Total Capital 21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Equity 37.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 97.5%

CBRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2926 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBRL are equal to 37.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBRL is equal to -6.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $545 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.115 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of CBRL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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