Intrinsic value of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - CBRL

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$160.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$160.19

 
Intrinsic value

$129.86

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,912
  2,970
  3,039
  3,117
  3,204
  3,301
  3,408
  3,524
  3,650
  3,785
  3,930
  4,086
  4,252
  4,428
  4,616
  4,815
  5,026
  5,249
  5,485
  5,735
  5,999
  6,277
  6,570
  6,879
  7,205
  7,548
  7,909
  8,289
  8,689
  9,110
  9,552
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,910
  1,954
  2,004
  2,060
  2,123
  2,191
  2,266
  2,347
  2,434
  2,527
  2,627
  2,734
  2,847
  2,968
  3,096
  3,232
  3,375
  3,527
  3,688
  3,857
  4,036
  4,224
  4,423
  4,633
  4,853
  5,085
  5,330
  5,587
  5,857
  6,142
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  798
  818
  839
  860
  881
  903
  926
  949
  973
  997
  1,022
  1,048
  1,074
  1,101
  1,128
  1,156
  1,185
  1,215
  1,245
  1,276
  1,308
  1,341
  1,375
  1,409
  1,444
  1,480
  1,517
  1,555
  1,594
  1,634
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,632
  2,708
  2,772
  2,843
  2,920
  3,004
  3,094
  3,192
  3,296
  3,407
  3,524
  3,649
  3,782
  3,921
  4,069
  4,224
  4,388
  4,560
  4,742
  4,933
  5,133
  5,344
  5,565
  5,798
  6,042
  6,297
  6,565
  6,847
  7,142
  7,451
  7,776
Operating income, $m
  280
  262
  266
  274
  284
  297
  313
  332
  354
  378
  406
  437
  470
  507
  547
  591
  638
  689
  743
  802
  865
  932
  1,004
  1,081
  1,163
  1,250
  1,343
  1,442
  1,547
  1,658
  1,776
EBITDA, $m
  358
  341
  348
  357
  370
  385
  404
  426
  451
  480
  511
  546
  584
  625
  670
  719
  772
  829
  890
  955
  1,025
  1,100
  1,180
  1,265
  1,356
  1,452
  1,554
  1,663
  1,779
  1,901
  2,031
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  86
Earnings before tax, $m
  266
  248
  252
  258
  268
  280
  295
  312
  333
  356
  382
  411
  442
  477
  515
  557
  602
  650
  702
  758
  818
  882
  951
  1,024
  1,103
  1,186
  1,275
  1,369
  1,470
  1,576
  1,690
Tax expense, $m
  77
  67
  68
  70
  72
  76
  80
  84
  90
  96
  103
  111
  119
  129
  139
  150
  162
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  257
  277
  298
  320
  344
  370
  397
  426
  456
Net income, $m
  189
  181
  184
  189
  195
  204
  215
  228
  243
  260
  279
  300
  323
  348
  376
  406
  439
  474
  512
  553
  597
  644
  694
  748
  805
  866
  931
  1,000
  1,073
  1,151
  1,233

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,498
  1,374
  1,405
  1,442
  1,482
  1,527
  1,576
  1,630
  1,688
  1,751
  1,818
  1,890
  1,967
  2,048
  2,135
  2,227
  2,325
  2,428
  2,537
  2,653
  2,775
  2,903
  3,039
  3,182
  3,332
  3,491
  3,658
  3,834
  4,019
  4,213
  4,418
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,347
  1,374
  1,405
  1,442
  1,482
  1,527
  1,576
  1,630
  1,688
  1,751
  1,818
  1,890
  1,967
  2,048
  2,135
  2,227
  2,325
  2,428
  2,537
  2,653
  2,775
  2,903
  3,039
  3,182
  3,332
  3,491
  3,658
  3,834
  4,019
  4,213
  4,418
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.162
  2.162
  2.163
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
  2.162
Average production assets, $m
  1,067
  1,087
  1,112
  1,141
  1,173
  1,208
  1,247
  1,290
  1,336
  1,385
  1,439
  1,495
  1,556
  1,621
  1,689
  1,762
  1,839
  1,921
  2,008
  2,099
  2,195
  2,297
  2,405
  2,518
  2,637
  2,762
  2,895
  3,034
  3,180
  3,334
  3,496
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -166
  -170
  -175
  -179
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -270
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -487
  -510
  -535
Total debt, $m
  400
  420
  443
  469
  498
  531
  566
  605
  647
  692
  741
  792
  848
  907
  969
  1,036
  1,106
  1,181
  1,260
  1,343
  1,431
  1,524
  1,622
  1,725
  1,834
  1,949
  2,069
  2,196
  2,330
  2,470
  2,618
Total liabilities, $m
  971
  992
  1,015
  1,041
  1,070
  1,103
  1,138
  1,177
  1,219
  1,264
  1,313
  1,364
  1,420
  1,479
  1,541
  1,608
  1,678
  1,753
  1,832
  1,915
  2,003
  2,096
  2,194
  2,297
  2,406
  2,521
  2,641
  2,768
  2,902
  3,042
  3,190
Total equity, $m
  526
  382
  391
  401
  412
  425
  438
  453
  469
  487
  505
  525
  547
  569
  594
  619
  646
  675
  705
  737
  771
  807
  845
  885
  926
  971
  1,017
  1,066
  1,117
  1,171
  1,228
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,497
  1,374
  1,406
  1,442
  1,482
  1,528
  1,576
  1,630
  1,688
  1,751
  1,818
  1,889
  1,967
  2,048
  2,135
  2,227
  2,324
  2,428
  2,537
  2,652
  2,774
  2,903
  3,039
  3,182
  3,332
  3,492
  3,658
  3,834
  4,019
  4,213
  4,418
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.760
  1.100
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.250
  1.290
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.470
  1.510
  1.550
  1.590
  1.630
  1.670
  1.710
  1.750
  1.790
  1.820
  1.860
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
  2.030
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278
  0.278

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  189
  181
  184
  189
  195
  204
  215
  228
  243
  260
  279
  300
  323
  348
  376
  406
  439
  474
  512
  553
  597
  644
  694
  748
  805
  866
  931
  1,000
  1,073
  1,151
  1,233
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  192
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
Funds from operations, $m
  243
  260
  265
  272
  281
  292
  306
  322
  340
  361
  384
  409
  437
  467
  500
  535
  573
  615
  659
  707
  757
  812
  870
  932
  997
  1,067
  1,142
  1,221
  1,305
  1,394
  1,489
Change in working capital, $m
  -28
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  271
  277
  269
  276
  286
  298
  312
  329
  347
  368
  392
  418
  446
  477
  510
  546
  585
  627
  672
  721
  772
  827
  886
  949
  1,016
  1,087
  1,162
  1,242
  1,327
  1,418
  1,513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -78
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
New CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -113
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
Free cash flow, $m
  158
  179
  164
  166
  171
  177
  185
  195
  207
  221
  238
  256
  276
  298
  323
  350
  379
  411
  446
  483
  522
  565
  611
  660
  713
  769
  828
  892
  960
  1,032
  1,108
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  142
  199
  187
  192
  200
  209
  221
  234
  249
  267
  286
  308
  331
  357
  386
  417
  450
  486
  524
  566
  610
  658
  709
  763
  821
  883
  949
  1,019
  1,093
  1,172
  1,256
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  343
  178
  182
  189
  197
  207
  219
  233
  249
  267
  288
  310
  335
  362
  391
  423
  457
  494
  534
  577
  622
  671
  724
  780
  839
  903
  970
  1,042
  1,118
  1,199
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  328
  163
  159
  155
  152
  150
  148
  146
  143
  140
  137
  132
  127
  121
  115
  107
  99
  91
  82
  73
  64
  56
  47
  40
  33
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company’s Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The company’s gift shops offer various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts, toys, apparels, music CDs, cookware, a book-on-audio sale-and-exchange program, and various other gift items, as well as candies, preserves, pies, cornbread mixes, coffee, syrups, pancake mixes, and other food items. As of November 22, 2016, it operated 641 Cracker Barrel stores in 43 states. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 7.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 76%
Total Debt to Equity 76%
Interest Coverage 21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Total Capital 20.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Equity 35.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.7%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Payout Ratio 135.4%

CBRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2912 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CBRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $779 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBRL are equal to 36.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBRL is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $526 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.987 million for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Stock Picks on the Restaurant Menu   [Apr-04-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
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▶ Why Restaurants Need To Explore Retail   [Feb-14-17 11:37AM  at Forbes]
▶ Cracker Barrel bringing new biscuit concept to Atlanta   [Jan-20-17 07:15AM  at bizjournals.com]
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▶ Cracker Barrel Stock Upgraded: What You Need to Know   [Dec-01-16 12:26PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Cracker Barrel Restaurant Sales Up, Retail Down   [09:52AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Cracker Barrel Stock Keeps Falling. Is It Time to Bail?   [Oct-07-16 10:10PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of CBRL Financial statements of CBRL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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