Intrinsic value of CBIZ Inc - CBZ

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$15.10

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.10

 
Intrinsic value

$25.58

 
Up/down potential

+69%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.67
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  800
  873
  949
  1,028
  1,110
  1,195
  1,284
  1,376
  1,472
  1,571
  1,675
  1,782
  1,894
  2,011
  2,133
  2,259
  2,391
  2,529
  2,673
  2,823
  2,980
  3,143
  3,315
  3,494
  3,681
  3,877
  4,083
  4,298
  4,523
  4,758
  5,006
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  793
  858
  925
  995
  1,068
  1,144
  1,222
  1,304
  1,389
  1,477
  1,521
  1,616
  1,716
  1,819
  1,927
  2,040
  2,158
  2,280
  2,408
  2,542
  2,682
  2,828
  2,981
  3,141
  3,308
  3,483
  3,666
  3,858
  4,060
  4,270
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  734
  793
  858
  925
  995
  1,068
  1,144
  1,222
  1,304
  1,389
  1,477
  1,521
  1,616
  1,716
  1,819
  1,927
  2,040
  2,158
  2,280
  2,408
  2,542
  2,682
  2,828
  2,981
  3,141
  3,308
  3,483
  3,666
  3,858
  4,060
  4,270
Operating income, $m
  66
  79
  91
  102
  114
  127
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  262
  278
  295
  313
  332
  351
  371
  393
  415
  438
  462
  487
  513
  541
  569
  600
  631
  664
  699
  735
EBITDA, $m
  88
  133
  144
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  325
  344
  364
  385
  407
  430
  454
  478
  505
  532
  560
  590
  621
  654
  688
  724
  762
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  73
  82
  91
  101
  111
  122
  133
  145
  157
  169
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  320
  338
  356
  374
  394
  415
  436
  459
  482
  507
  533
  560
  588
  618
Tax expense, $m
  26
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
Net income, $m
  40
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  106
  114
  123
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  318
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  429
  451

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,119
  1,217
  1,323
  1,433
  1,548
  1,667
  1,790
  1,919
  2,052
  2,191
  2,336
  2,486
  2,642
  2,805
  2,974
  3,151
  3,335
  3,527
  3,728
  3,937
  4,156
  4,384
  4,623
  4,873
  5,134
  5,408
  5,694
  5,994
  6,308
  6,637
  6,981
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,116
  1,217
  1,323
  1,433
  1,548
  1,667
  1,790
  1,919
  2,052
  2,191
  2,336
  2,486
  2,642
  2,805
  2,974
  3,151
  3,335
  3,527
  3,728
  3,937
  4,156
  4,384
  4,623
  4,873
  5,134
  5,408
  5,694
  5,994
  6,308
  6,637
  6,981
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
Average production assets, $m
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  168
  181
  194
  207
  222
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  493
  519
  547
  576
  606
  638
  671
  706
Working capital, $m
  103
  110
  120
  129
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  253
  269
  285
  301
  319
  337
  356
  375
  396
  418
  440
  464
  489
  514
  541
  570
  600
  631
Total debt, $m
  194
  251
  312
  375
  440
  508
  579
  653
  729
  808
  891
  977
  1,066
  1,159
  1,256
  1,357
  1,463
  1,573
  1,687
  1,807
  1,932
  2,063
  2,199
  2,342
  2,492
  2,648
  2,812
  2,983
  3,163
  3,351
  3,548
Total liabilities, $m
  639
  696
  757
  820
  885
  953
  1,024
  1,098
  1,174
  1,253
  1,336
  1,422
  1,511
  1,604
  1,701
  1,802
  1,908
  2,018
  2,132
  2,252
  2,377
  2,508
  2,644
  2,787
  2,937
  3,093
  3,257
  3,428
  3,608
  3,796
  3,993
Total equity, $m
  480
  521
  566
  613
  662
  713
  766
  821
  878
  938
  1,000
  1,064
  1,131
  1,200
  1,273
  1,349
  1,427
  1,510
  1,595
  1,685
  1,779
  1,876
  1,979
  2,086
  2,197
  2,314
  2,437
  2,565
  2,700
  2,840
  2,988
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,119
  1,217
  1,323
  1,433
  1,547
  1,666
  1,790
  1,919
  2,052
  2,191
  2,336
  2,486
  2,642
  2,804
  2,974
  3,151
  3,335
  3,528
  3,727
  3,937
  4,156
  4,384
  4,623
  4,873
  5,134
  5,407
  5,694
  5,993
  6,308
  6,636
  6,981
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.404
  0.480
  0.550
  0.610
  0.660
  0.710
  0.760
  0.790
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.427
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  106
  114
  123
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  246
  260
  273
  288
  303
  318
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  429
  451
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  53
  54
  54
  55
  55
  56
  56
  57
  57
  58
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  106
  114
  121
  128
  136
  145
  153
  162
  171
  181
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  392
  412
  433
  455
  478
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  101
  104
  111
  118
  126
  133
  142
  150
  159
  168
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  284
  299
  314
  331
  348
  366
  385
  404
  425
  447
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  87
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  316
  333
  350
  368
  386
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -23
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  145
  149
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  292
  308
  323
  340
  357
  376
  395
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  104
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  162
  171
  181
  192
  202
  214
  225
  238
  250
  264
  278
  292
  308
  323
  340
  358
  376
  395
  415
  436
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  99
  93
  93
  93
  91
  89
  87
  83
  80
  75
  65
  60
  56
  51
  45
  40
  35
  30
  26
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CBIZ, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides professional business services, products, and solutions in the United States and Canada. The company offers its services through three practice groups: Financial Services, Employee Services, and National Practices. The Financial Services practice group provides accounting, tax, government health care consulting, financial advisory, valuation, litigation support, and risk and real estate advisory services. The Employee Services practice group offers employee benefits, property and casualty, retirement plan, payroll, life insurance, human capital, compensation consulting, executive recruiting, and actuarial services. The National Practices practice group provides managed networking and hardware, and health care consulting services. The company serves businesses of various sizes, as well as individuals, governmental entities, and not-for-profit enterprises. CBIZ, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CBIZ Inc (CBZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.8
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 40.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
EBITDA Margin 11.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CBZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CBIZ Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CBIZ Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for CBZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CBIZ Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CBIZ Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CBIZ Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CBIZ Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBZ are equal to 14.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CBIZ Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBZ is equal to 12.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $480 million for CBIZ Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.23 million for CBIZ Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CBIZ Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to CBIZ, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CBIZ, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 03:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CBIZ posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ CBIZ Reports First-Quarter 2017 Results   [06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CBIZ reports 4Q loss   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ)?   [06:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CBIZ Acquires The Seff Group, P.C.   [Nov-02-16 04:28PM  PR Newswire]
▶ CBIZ posts 1Q profit   [06:47AM  AP]
▶ CBIZ Reports First-Quarter 2016 Results   [06:30AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of CBZ Financial statements of CBZ Annual reports of CBZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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