Intrinsic value of CBIZ Inc - CBZ

Previous Close

$16.90

  Intrinsic Value

$23.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+38%

  Value-price divergence*

-44%

Previous close

$16.90

 
Intrinsic value

$23.33

 
Up/down potential

+38%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-44%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.67
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  800
  857
  916
  977
  1,041
  1,107
  1,177
  1,248
  1,323
  1,402
  1,483
  1,568
  1,657
  1,749
  1,846
  1,947
  2,053
  2,164
  2,280
  2,401
  2,528
  2,661
  2,800
  2,945
  3,098
  3,258
  3,426
  3,602
  3,787
  3,980
  4,183
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  780
  830
  882
  937
  993
  1,052
  1,114
  1,178
  1,244
  1,314
  1,338
  1,413
  1,493
  1,575
  1,661
  1,752
  1,846
  1,945
  2,048
  2,156
  2,270
  2,388
  2,513
  2,643
  2,780
  2,923
  3,073
  3,230
  3,396
  3,569
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  734
  780
  830
  882
  937
  993
  1,052
  1,114
  1,178
  1,244
  1,314
  1,338
  1,413
  1,493
  1,575
  1,661
  1,752
  1,846
  1,945
  2,048
  2,156
  2,270
  2,388
  2,513
  2,643
  2,780
  2,923
  3,073
  3,230
  3,396
  3,569
Operating income, $m
  66
  77
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  157
  169
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  411
  433
  455
  479
  503
  529
  556
  585
  614
EBITDA, $m
  88
  130
  139
  149
  158
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  313
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
  472
  496
  522
  548
  576
  606
  637
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  70
  77
  85
  92
  100
  109
  117
  126
  136
  146
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
  336
  352
  370
  388
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
Tax expense, $m
  26
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
Net income, $m
  40
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,119
  1,195
  1,277
  1,363
  1,452
  1,545
  1,641
  1,741
  1,846
  1,955
  2,068
  2,187
  2,311
  2,440
  2,575
  2,716
  2,864
  3,018
  3,179
  3,348
  3,525
  3,711
  3,905
  4,108
  4,321
  4,544
  4,778
  5,024
  5,281
  5,551
  5,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,116
  1,195
  1,277
  1,363
  1,452
  1,545
  1,641
  1,741
  1,846
  1,955
  2,068
  2,187
  2,311
  2,440
  2,575
  2,716
  2,864
  3,018
  3,179
  3,348
  3,525
  3,711
  3,905
  4,108
  4,321
  4,544
  4,778
  5,024
  5,281
  5,551
  5,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
  0.717
Average production assets, $m
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  260
  275
  290
  305
  321
  339
  356
  375
  395
  415
  437
  459
  483
  508
  534
  561
  590
Working capital, $m
  103
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  233
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  318
  335
  353
  371
  390
  411
  432
  454
  477
  501
  527
Total debt, $m
  194
  239
  286
  335
  385
  438
  494
  551
  611
  673
  738
  806
  877
  951
  1,028
  1,109
  1,193
  1,281
  1,374
  1,470
  1,572
  1,678
  1,789
  1,905
  2,027
  2,154
  2,288
  2,429
  2,576
  2,730
  2,892
Total liabilities, $m
  639
  684
  731
  780
  830
  883
  939
  996
  1,056
  1,118
  1,183
  1,251
  1,322
  1,396
  1,473
  1,554
  1,638
  1,726
  1,819
  1,915
  2,017
  2,123
  2,234
  2,350
  2,472
  2,599
  2,733
  2,874
  3,021
  3,175
  3,337
Total equity, $m
  480
  511
  547
  583
  621
  661
  702
  745
  790
  837
  885
  936
  989
  1,044
  1,102
  1,163
  1,226
  1,292
  1,361
  1,433
  1,509
  1,588
  1,671
  1,758
  1,849
  1,945
  2,045
  2,150
  2,260
  2,376
  2,497
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,119
  1,195
  1,278
  1,363
  1,451
  1,544
  1,641
  1,741
  1,846
  1,955
  2,068
  2,187
  2,311
  2,440
  2,575
  2,717
  2,864
  3,018
  3,180
  3,348
  3,526
  3,711
  3,905
  4,108
  4,321
  4,544
  4,778
  5,024
  5,281
  5,551
  5,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.404
  0.470
  0.520
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.427
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  51
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  53
  54
  54
  54
  55
  55
  55
  56
  56
  57
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
  364
  382
  401
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  153
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  267
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  181
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  268
  282
  296
  310
  326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  131
  137
  144
  150
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  443
  465
  488
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  99
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
  366
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  94
  91
  90
  89
  86
  84
  80
  77
  73
  68
  58
  54
  49
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

CBIZ, Inc. (CBIZ) is engaged in the professional services business. The Company operates its professional services business through acquiring and integrating accounting and financial service providers, group health benefits consulting firms, property and casualty brokerage firms, payroll service providers, and valuation and other service firms throughout the United States. Its segments include Financial Services, Benefits and Insurance Services, National Practices, and Corporate and Other. The Financial Services group includes accounting and tax, government healthcare consulting, financial advisory, valuation, and risk and advisory services. The Benefits and Insurance Services group includes group health benefits consulting, payroll, property and casualty, and retirement plan services. The National Practices segment includes managed networking and hardware services, and healthcare consulting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  CBIZ Inc (CBZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.8
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 40.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
EBITDA Margin 11.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

CBZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by CBIZ Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of CBIZ Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for CBZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of CBIZ Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of CBIZ Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for CBIZ Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for CBIZ Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBZ are equal to 14.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in CBIZ Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBZ is equal to 12.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $480 million for CBIZ Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.448 million for CBIZ Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of CBIZ Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Is CBIZ a Great Stock for Value Investors?   [Aug-21-17 09:55AM  Zacks]
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▶ CBIZ posts 2Q profit   [02:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ CBIZ Reports Second-Quarter And First-Half 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CBIZ, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:CBZ) : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 05:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CBIZ acquires West Palm Beach insurance agency specializing in golf and country clubs   [Jun-07-17 01:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is CBIZ a Great Stock for Value Investors?   [May-29-17 09:40AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CBIZ, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to CBIZ, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 03:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ CBIZ posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ CBIZ Reports First-Quarter 2017 Results   [06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CBIZ reports 4Q loss   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ)?   [06:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ CBIZ Acquires The Seff Group, P.C.   [Nov-02-16 04:28PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of CBZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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