Intrinsic value of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR - CCIH

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$1.14

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$1.14

 
Intrinsic value

$2.53

 
Up/down potential

+122%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CCIH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  196
  200
  205
  210
  216
  222
  229
  237
  246
  255
  265
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
  643
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  203
  208
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  303
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  566
  594
  622
  653
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  213
  203
  208
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  303
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  566
  594
  622
  653
Operating income, $m
  -17
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
EBITDA, $m
  6
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -13
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  379
  293
  299
  307
  316
  325
  336
  347
  360
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  474
  495
  517
  541
  565
  591
  619
  647
  678
  710
  744
  779
  817
  856
  898
  941
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  287
  293
  299
  307
  316
  325
  336
  347
  360
  373
  387
  403
  419
  436
  455
  474
  495
  517
  541
  565
  591
  619
  647
  678
  710
  744
  779
  817
  856
  898
  941
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.683
  0.683
  0.686
  0.684
  0.684
  0.683
  0.682
  0.683
  0.683
  0.684
  0.685
  0.682
  0.683
  0.683
  0.684
  0.684
  0.683
  0.683
  0.682
  0.683
  0.684
  0.682
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
  0.683
Average production assets, $m
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  236
Working capital, $m
  30
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
Total debt, $m
  27
  15
  21
  28
  36
  45
  54
  65
  76
  88
  101
  114
  129
  145
  161
  179
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  309
  335
  362
  391
  421
  453
  487
  523
  560
  599
Total liabilities, $m
  274
  263
  269
  276
  284
  293
  302
  313
  324
  336
  349
  362
  377
  393
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  735
  771
  808
  847
Total equity, $m
  104
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  378
  292
  299
  307
  316
  326
  336
  348
  360
  373
  388
  402
  419
  437
  454
  474
  496
  518
  541
  566
  591
  619
  648
  678
  710
  743
  779
  817
  857
  898
  941
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.260
  0.530
  0.720
  0.930
  1.150
  1.380
  1.620
  1.860
  2.100
  2.350
  2.600
  2.840
  3.080
  3.320
  3.550
  3.770
  3.990
  4.210
  4.410
  4.610
  4.800
  4.990
  5.170
  5.340
  5.510
  5.670
  5.820
  5.960
  6.100
  6.240
  6.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.042
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -13
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  210
  10
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
Change in working capital, $m
  99
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -63
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  -1
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  26
  28
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  -1
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  63
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  -3
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  17
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  69
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.7
  97.8
  94.2
  89.0
  82.5
  74.9
  66.7
  58.3
  49.9
  41.9
  34.6
  28.0
  22.3
  17.5
  13.5
  10.2
  7.6
  5.6
  4.1
  2.9
  2.1
  1.5
  1.0

ChinaCache International Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, provides content and application delivery services in the People’s Republic of China. The company offers a portfolio of services and solutions to businesses, government agencies, and other enterprises to enhance the reliability and scalability of their online services and applications. Its services include Web page content services; file transfer services; rich media streaming services; and guaranteed application services for Websites that have various features, such as on-line booking and ordering, real-time stock quotes, and on-line surveys. The company also provides managed Internet data services for content and application delivery, and network infrastructure and security; ChinaCache cloud services for cloud computing and network storage; content bridging services for mobile telecommunications carriers; and mobile Internet solutions. In addition, it offers various value-added services, such as geo-content acceleration service, performance evaluation modules, scalable service routing service, link anti-hijack service, netstorage service, user behavior analysis service, Website performance evaluation service, all-around application acceleration solution, and cloud extension solution. The company’s value-added services also include CC Index, an analytics platform that provides Internet users real-time data on traffic, bandwidth, and usage habits, as well as other statistics; and file aware download, which provides CDN technology, end-user control ability, a customizable user interface, and insight into download analytics and content usage information. Further, it provides technical consultation and IT system integration services; constructs cloud infrastructure; and leases mechanical equipment, as well as engages in computer hardware, technology development, and electronic equipment businesses. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ChinaCache International Holdings ADR (CCIH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.1
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -64.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 15.4%
Total Debt to Equity 26%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Return On Total Capital -9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Return On Equity -11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin -8.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Net Profit Margin -6.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 18.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

CCIH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CCIH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $196 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CCIH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for CCIH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CCIH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CCIH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.3% for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CCIH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CCIH are equal to 36.7%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ChinaCache International Holdings ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CCIH is equal to -26%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $104 million for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.378 million for ChinaCache International Holdings ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ChinaCache International Holdings ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Chinacache reports 4Q loss   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ChinaCache to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Mar-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These 5 Stocks Under $10 Could Get Hot Soon   [Jan-27-17 12:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Is Alimera Sciences Inc (ALIM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 11:35AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Chinacache reports 3Q loss   [Nov-29-16 06:13PM  AP]
▶ Chinacache reports 2Q loss   [Aug-18-16 06:11PM  AP]
▶ ChinaCache Launches Internet Exchange Center in Shanghai   [Aug-03-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Change of Management   [Jul-01-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CHINACACHE INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ ChinaCache to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-29-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ChinaCache Announces Share Buyback Program   [Dec-28  08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Castle Brands Inc (ROX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24  05:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of CCIH Financial statements of CCIH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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